Wind Advisory 19, NWS Seattle, WA

195 
WWUS76 KSEW 050453
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
853 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2020

WAZ001-503-506-507-510-050600-
/O.EXP.KSEW.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-201105T0500Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
Everett and Vicinity-Admiralty Inlet Area-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon, 
Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Everett, Edmonds, Lynnwood,
Marysville, and Port Townsend
853 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds continue to gradually ease as the front slowly exits the
area. As such...winds have fallen below advisory criteria allowing
the advisory to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
345 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm front stalled over Western Washington today
dissipating tonight. Cold front moving into the area Thursday
slowly moving south into Oregon by early Friday morning. Dry and
cool northerly flow aloft over the weekend. Flow aloft becoming
northwesterly Monday and Tuesday with additional weather systems
reaching Western Washington.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Satellite imagery shows
cloudy skies over Western Washington early this morning. Doppler
radar has some pockets of light rain mainly along the coast and
over the central and southern Puget Sound area. Temperatures are
mild at 3 am/11z, in the 50s and lower 60s.

The main message for today across the area is gray, drippy and
mild. Western Washington in the warm sector this morning with a
warm front offshore moving over the area and stalling later today.
Any lift will result in rain given the saturated lower levels of
the air mass. Temperatures throughout the day will only be a
couple of degrees different than what they are now with the cloud
cover and increasing precipitation. Highs in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

Warm front dissipating this evening with the rain out ahead of
the trailing cold front moving into the area tonight. As is the
case with the warm front the cold front too will stall over
Western Washington with an upper level trough digging south
offshore. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Cold front remaining stalled over the area most of Thursday as
the trough offshore continues to dig south. The front will start
to sag south during the afternoon but the end result is another
wet day for the area. Highs Thursday will only be a couple of
degrees warmer than the lows, mostly in the 50s.

Cold front continues to slowly sag south Thursday night taking the
rain with it into Oregon. Drying trend over the northern half of
the area early Friday morning with the front still close enough to
keep the mention of rain in the forecast from about Seattle south.
Cooler air mass behind the front will begin to move into the
region dropping lows Friday morning down into the 40s with some
upper 30s possible in the north with clearing skies.

Chance of rain over the southern portion of the area Friday
morning as the cold front exits to the south. Dry northerly flow
developing during the day will help reduce the cloud cover over
the area especially in the afternoon. Even with the sunshine highs
will continue to cool, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Models in good agreement
for a dry weekend although the ECMWF is putting light rain closer
to the southern portion of the area Saturday night/Sunday morning
with another system moving by to the west and south. Flow aloft
turning northwesterly Sunday night with a system moving down the
British Columbia coast arriving Monday night followed by another
system later Tuesday. Model blend has put some low chance pops
over the interior Monday afternoon but GFS ensembles hold off the
precipitation over the interior until Monday night and the ECMWF
ensembles only have a couple of solutions with measurable
precipitation over the interior Monday afternoon. Will stay with
the idea from last night of confining the chance pops Monday to
the coast with rain spreading over the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Felton

&&

.AVIATION...Moist southwest flow continues with a weakening front
moving over the area early this morning. Another front will reach
the area this evening and that system is more vigorous. The air will
not really get a chance to dry between the two systems at all and
widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs and vsby will continue. The
mountains and hills will remain mostly obscured through tonight. 19

KSEA...Rain a times this morning and then a little break with
perhaps some improvement in cigs this afternoon. Another front
arrives this evening for yet another round of rain and blustery
southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...A weakening front is moving ashore early this morning. A
more vigorous front will arrive this evening. A third system on
Thursday will track to our south for a period of lighter winds
across western WA. Northerly flow will develop on Friday with high
pressure over B.C. and Fraser River outflow winds might develop over
the weekend with the best chance Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Break in the precipitation early this morning has
allowed most of the rivers to either slow their rises or crest.
Another round of rain arriving today and continuing into Thursday
evening. Precipitation amounts in the North and Central Cascades
look to be in the one to two inch range with two to three inches
in the Olympics. This amount of rain will not be enough to push
rivers above flood stage Thursday or Friday. The hydrological
outlook product will be dropped with this reduced threat of
flooding. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-
     West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM PST
     Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

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