Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

July 21, 2020City of Danville, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2020, 9:08 PM EDT for City of Danville, Virginia. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2020, 9:08 PM EDT (01:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2020, 9:30 PM EDT
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County City of Danville, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 895 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1464 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 9:06 PM EDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 9:06 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
906 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge across the southern U.S. will maintain itself
into Thursday before a front arrives late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Tuesday...

Widely scattered storms continue under an axis of DCAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/KG, so locally damaging winds are still
possible for the reminder of the evening. 23Z HRRR has a good
handle on the current location of convection and keeps storms
across the VA southside until around midnight-1 AM EDT. Adjusted
POPs up in this area.

There will be a weakness in the upper ridge as a shortwave
passes into the Ohio Valley late tonight. This may help a
complex of storms move into WV by daybreak, but the model
consensus is to keep this west of our area through 12Z (8 AM
EDT) Wednesday.

With a stagnant airmass in place, followed persistence for lows
and bumped up lows at ROA closer to values experienced Tuesday
morning.

Wednesday appears somewhat similar to this afternoon as storms
fire up noon or just before. Difference is a slight cooling
aloft with trough moving across the upper Ohio Valley. SPC has a
slight risk for severe north of U.S. 60, as better upper
support/shear push across northern WV/VA, and density from
storms may sink the convective system south toward Lynchburg to
Roanoke/Lexington by mid afternoon. Overall storm coverage looks
more numerous in the Shenandoah Valley and mountains, with less
southside VA/NC piedmont.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 west, to
mid 90s east. The exception will be the highest terrain of SW
VA/NW NC with upper 70s to lower 80s above 3500 feet. See
climate section below for records.

Forecast confidence is average for storm location/coverage this
evening and again Wednesday, but high on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

An area of low pressure will cross over Maine in association with a
passing upper level trough during Wednesday night into Thursday. It
will drag a cold front toward Ohio and Pennsylvania by Thursday
afternoon, which should spark another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the Mid Atlantic. There remains plenty of
instability ahead of this front based on the ample heat and
humidity. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a
marginal risk of severe weather mainly along and east of the Blue
Ridge. The record consecutive streak of 22 days for hitting at least
90 degrees (June 23 through July 14 in 1966) at Roanoke will be
toast by midday Thursday as we reach day 23 of this current streak.

The cold front should slowly sag southward through central Virginia
by Thursday night into Friday, which will push the focus for
convection toward the Virginia and North Carolina border during
Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, the impressive upper level ridge
responsible for all the heat will start to shift westward toward the
Plains as the upper level trough digs further across the Northeast.
Slightly drier air could infiltrate from the northwest by Friday
night as high pressure takes control over New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front should push further southward across North Carolina
on Saturday and eventually head offshore toward the latter half of
this weekend. Confidence is increasing for shower and thunderstorm
chances to diminish by Sunday based on better agreement between the
ECMWF and GFS models. Still, a chance will be left across the
northwest North Carolina mountains as orographical lift may spark
isolated convection. Temperatures could be a little cooler for
Saturday compared to earlier in the week, but this slight reprieve
will be brief as the influence of the upper level trough should
fade away by Sunday.

If the record streak of 90-degree days at Roanoke is not halted by
Saturday, it will continue well into next week as heights aloft rise
during Sunday and Monday. Consequently, the heat and humidity should
begin to creep up again. The potential for showers and thunderstorms
could tick up by Monday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge as the next
cold front and its associated upper level trough enters the Ohio
River Valley. Convection chances increase further on Tuesday as the
trough digs southward and pushes the cold front toward the
Appalachian Mountains. The slower ECWMF solution was favored for the
latter part of this forecast as the GFS seems too fast given this
summertime pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of southwest
Virginia will gradually diminish this evening. Kept VCTS for all
TAF sites except KLYH until 02-03Z (10-11 PM EDT). Once the
storms diminish VFR conditions will prevail for most TAF sites
overnight, but MVFR fog, or worse, is possible at KLWB before
dawn Wednesday.

Expect better coverage of thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially
after 18Z (2 PM EDT), and included VCTS at all TAF sites, as it
is too early to pinpoint which locations will be directly
impacted. These storms will have the potential to produce gusty
winds and heavy rain and should they move over a TAF site, a
short period of IFR conditions are possible.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall mainly VFR weather to continue through most of the
week. We will continue to have afternoon and early evening
scattered storms through the extended period. Thus periods of
sub-VFR are possible in storms, and potential for late
night/early morning fog at LWB/BCB and perhaps other locations
depending on where there is daily significant rainfall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temps for today at climate locations:

Tuesday 07/21/2020
Site       High/Year       Warm Low/Year
BLUEFIELD    94 1934         78 1934
DANVILLE    102 1977         75 2015
LYNCHBURG   103 1926         80 1930
ROANOKE     104 1926         75 2008
BLACKSBURG   99 1926         74 1934

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PH/PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PH
CLIMATE...WP

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 8:12 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
812 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-221215-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
812 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening on Wednesday and Thursday. Damaging winds are the primary
severe weather threat, but large hail and localized flooding are also
possible.

Heat indices between 100 and 105 are possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-221215-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
812 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening on Wednesday and Thursday. Damaging winds are the primary
severe weather threat, but large hail and localized flooding are also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:17 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:21 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

NCZ005-220045-
Rockingham-
821 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 820 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Madison, moving
east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Stoneville...
and Mayfield.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3632 8003 3646 8003 3654 7980 3654 7951
      3639 7953 3627 8001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 249DEG 12KT 3638 7997

PM

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:24 PM EDT, 44 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
824 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

VAZ020-024-220100-
Bath-Rockbridge-
824 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND CENTRAL BATH COUNTIES...

At 823 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bacova
Junction, or over Hot Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen...
Millboro...
Warm Springs...
Hot Springs...
Nimrod Hall...
Lake Moomaw...
and Ingalls Field.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3818 7951 3817 7952 3815 7953 3817 7949
      3817 7944 3816 7943 3809 7949 3798 7930
      3789 7965 3795 7991 3802 7995 3820 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 249DEG 12KT 3803 7985

PM

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:44 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

VAZ011-013-014-220115-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-
844 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PULASKI...SOUTHERN
GILES...MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RADFORD...

At 839 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered just
northwest of Radford, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blacksburg...
Christiansburg...
Radford...
Pulaski...
Pearisburg...
Dublin...
and Pembroke.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3718 8080 3730 8085 3739 8046 3732 8043
      3737 8033 3734 8026 3731 8026 3723 8019
      3711 8018 3708 8028 3702 8035 3702 8041
      3700 8042 3702 8045 3698 8049 3701 8052
      3694 8060 3688 8074 3703 8089 3711 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 249DEG 12KT 3717 8072

PM

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:57 PM EDT, 11 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

NCZ004-220130-
Stokes-
857 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN STOKES COUNTY...

At 856 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Germanton, or 8
miles north of Winston-Salem, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walnut Cove...
Danbury...
King...
Pine Hall...
Dillard...
Pinnacle...
and Hanging Rock State Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3634 8045 3646 8003 3626 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 242DEG 12KT 3623 8027

PM

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:08 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
908 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

NCZ005-006-VAZ043-044-220130-
Rockingham-Caswell-Henry-Pittsylvania-
908 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN CASWELL...SOUTHWESTERN
PITTSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
DANVILLE...

At 906 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Eden, moving
northeast at 15 mph. This storm produced some wind damage near
Mayodan, North Carolina.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.  This storm has weakened slightly, but may still contain
frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Eden...
Wentworth...
Mayfield...
Axton...
Aiken Summit...
and Gatewood.

LAT...LON 3640 7979 3654 7993 3662 7984 3677 7953
      3656 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 242DEG 11KT 3653 7976

PM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 8:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles	31 min
Jul 21, 8:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bath	36 min
Jul 21, 8:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford	31 min
Jul 21, 9:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Henry, Pittsylvania, City of Danville, City of Martinsville	51 min
Jul 21, 10:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Smyth, Tazewell	44 min
Jul 21, 10:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Roanoke, City of Salem	52 min
Jul 21, 10:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, Roanoke, City of Roanoke	59 min
Jul 21, 11:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	48 min
Jul 22, 12:32 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Cumberland	43 min
Jul 22, 8:32 AM EDT	Heat Advisory	RNK	Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania and 2 more	10 hr
Jul 22, 1:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bath	37 min
Jul 22, 1:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bath	22 min
Jul 22, 2:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford	34 min
Jul 22, 2:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt	40 min
Jul 22, 2:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bath	31 min
Jul 22, 2:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Carroll	27 min
Jul 22, 2:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	28 min
Jul 22, 2:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Lexington	23 min
Jul 22, 2:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	32 min
Jul 22, 3:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	58 min
Jul 22, 3:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Patrick	39 min
Jul 22, 3:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Lexington	29 min
Jul 22, 3:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Henry, City of Martinsville	47 min
Jul 22, 3:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	26 min
Jul 22, 4:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Appomattox, Campbell, Pittsylvania	49 min
Jul 22, 4:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge	32 min
Jul 22, 4:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte	61 min
Jul 22, 4:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Buckingham	38 min
Jul 22, 4:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Appomattox, Buckingham	61 min
Jul 22, 4:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax	48 min
Jul 22, 5:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Wythe	28 min
Jul 22, 5:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles, Pulaski, City of Radford	36 min
Jul 22, 5:40 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax	4 hr
Jul 22, 5:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	34 min
Jul 22, 5:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Wythe	31 min
Jul 22, 6:22 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Craig	38 min
Jul 22, 6:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Grayson	34 min
Jul 22, 6:52 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Grayson, Smyth, Wythe	3 hr
Jul 22, 6:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe	50 min
Jul 22, 7:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Roanoke, City of Salem	24 min
Jul 22, 7:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland, Tazewell, Wythe	47 min
Jul 22, 7:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	45 min
Jul 21, 8:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Stokes	28 min
Jul 21, 8:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockingham	24 min
Jul 21, 8:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Rockingham	47 min
Jul 21, 8:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Stokes	33 min
Jul 22, 5:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Watauga	25 min
Jul 22, 5:47 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Watauga	111 min
Jul 22, 6:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Monroe	36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2020 Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.