Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
356 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast will move east and
offshore tonight. A transition to a much warmer weather pattern
is expected the next several days, although accompanied by a
daily threat of afternoon evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Convergent axis on the west side of the upper low will be the
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity through this evening.
Concern until the loss of daytime instability will be the
potential for storms to train over the same area resulting risk
for Flash Flooding. Best convergence seems to be aligned along
and east of Interstate 77, and think this axis will migrate
eastward this evening. Thus will include most of the remaining
eastern counties of our CWA in a Flash Flood Watch through 9PM.

In addition to the flood threat, some dry air is beginning to
infiltrate the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. Water vapor
imagery shows drying on the back side of the upper low and if
this dry air entrains the thunderstorm cells then expect an
uptick in downdraft winds. Storms which moved through the Triad
of NC were producing gusts of 30-40 mph...so this is certainly
a concern as the ground is moist and it will not take much wind
to uproot trees.

Once the showers/storms dissipate this evening, expect partial
clearing. In spite of the clearing there will be no real airmass
change. As such, fog will become a concern with potential for
patchy dense fog late tonight. Fog will then lift into a layer
of stratus around daybreak before lifting into a cumulus field
for Sunday.

Sunday will feature a return to more typical summertime conditions.
Wind flow aloft will become southwesterly promoting much warmer
daytime temperatures. The abundance of atmospheric moisture will
remain, the combination of the daytime heating and instability
resulting in scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Attm
think the best coverage for showers will be over the mountains
along and west of the Blue Ridge with somewhat lower chances
east of Lynchburg and Danville. Due to how wet it has been in
recent days, potential for flooding is still a concern, but
localized. Warmer temperatures also suggest potential for
isolated strong to severe deep convection...pulse variety.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Ridging aloft is expected over the southeastern U.S. for early
week with a trough in the north-central CONUS. This trough is
forecast to progressively move east with time, the associated
surface front reaching the eastern seaboard by mid-week. Until
its arrival we will be warm and humid and subject to a daily
threat of showers and thunderstorms. As the front gets closer
the storms may become more organized, increasing the potential
for severe weather.

Temperatures will likely hit 90 degrees across the Piedmont for
both Monday and Tuesday, but this added heat should only
enhance the instability and prompt greater chances of showers
and thunderstorms. While confidence is highest for the storms to
form along and west of the Blue Ridge each day, they may
venture farther east into the Piedmont as the week progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

A deep upper trof and an associated surface low in the Great Lakes
region will trail a cold front along the East Coast by mid-
week, this front stalling over the deep south. Frontal passage
over our region should be followed by a day or two of drying. By
the end of the week, the front returns as a warm front with
moisture returning for the weekend. This suggests a transition
back to unsettled weather with an opportunity for more showers
and thunderstorms to close out the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through sunset. At the very least expect VCTS for most
terminals. Any shower/storm that moves across the airfield
will drop cigs/vsbys to IFR or lower.

Showers/storms fade again after 00z/8PM this evening, with
potential for fog after midnight leading to IFR and possible
LIFR visibility restrictions early Sunday morning. Similar to
Saturday morning the fog will lift into a layer of stratus
before mixing out into a cumulus field for the lat morning and
afternoon.

Forecast confidence is good.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A more summertime weather pattern is expected Sunday-Tuesday
with mainly afternoon/evening scattered storms. A front
approaches midweek with better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. With humidity staying up and clearing at night,
fog/low cloud potential increases each late night/early morning
next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ010>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>046-058-059.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ002>006-
     019-020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
335 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043>046-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-211945-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
335 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and storms will remain isolated by any storm may produce high
enough rainfall rates to result in localizaed flash flooding through
this evening, given the very moist soil conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ047-211945-
Buckingham-
335 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring isolated
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-211945-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-
335 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring isolated
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ006-202000-
Caswell-
323 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CASWELL COUNTY...

At 323 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Yanceyville,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Providence...
Jericho...
Prospect Hill...
Camp Springs...
and Milton.

LAT...LON 3625 7953 3654 7951 3654 7914 3624 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 312DEG 12KT 3644 7935

VFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
411 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

VAZ047-202045-
Buckingham-
411 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 411 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dillwyn, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckingham...
and Dillwyn.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3764 7841 3755 7835 3747 7851 3761 7860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 063DEG 7KT 3757 7841

DS