Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will stall across southern West Virginia
and central Virginia tonight and dissipate, with a large ridge
of high pressure and high moisture content over the region.
This pattern will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the area through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Very unstable and high moisture content are the concerns the
remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. Surface-based
CAPE over 4000 J/kg in the Piedmont as of 2pm and precip water
values around 2.0 inches across southern parts of the Piedmont.
Strong to severe storms to continue through early evening and
slower-moving or backbuilding will pose a flash flood threat as
well. Expectation is for these to push east and south by 6pm or
so.

Expect clearing late and any areas that receive rainfall today
are likely to see areas of fog, as well as some of the typical
mountain valleys, especially given the extremely high
humidities in place with little to no wind.

Saturday, another hot one in store as upper ridge is not moving
anywhere and weak frontal boundary will remain across the
northern part of the CWA but will be somewhat diffuse. Best
chance for diurnal storms will be southern half of CWA in deeper
moisture. High chance to low likely PoP values across the south,
with low chance to slight chance across the north. Atmosphere
may not be quite as unstable as today but ample for potential
for more strong storms and efficient rainers, so will have to
watch for at least a few strong to potentially severe or local
flash flooding, again mainly south of US 460 and especially in
the NC mountains and foothills.

Highs Saturday to remain above normal with mid to upper 80s in
the mountains and low to some mid 90s in Piedmont. Heat index
values will get above 100 in Piedmont but not expected to see
105, which is the heat advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Hot and stormy are the operative terms for this forecast
period. Upper level ridging continues to build in over the
region Saturday night into Sunday before weak zonal flow sets up
through the remainder of this period. Sunday and into Monday,
high pressure sets up to our south, establishing a pattern of SW
flow that will help drive in very warm weather. Sunday will be
close to heat advisory criteria, but Monday at this point seems
likely that we will be pushing one with highs topping off in the
mid to upper 90s with heat indices forecast to surpass 105
degrees.

After Monday, a shortwave enters the area, increasing rain chances
for Tuesday (primarily from the AM to the afternoon). Because of
these storms, temperatures will be slightly "cooler" thanks to the
increased cloud cover and obvious cooler areas that are lucky enough
to catch the rain. Regardless of cooler, temperatures will still be
slightly above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Zonal flow aloft from earlier in the week starts to weaken as an
upper level trough crosses to our north over the Great
Lakes/Northern Tier. With this trough will come numerous shortwaves
within the flow that will continue to work with ample diurnal
heating to help drive daily shower and thunderstorm chances. There's
still time to better establish exact areas on where the greatest
rain chances will be based on boundaries, but it appears that
coverage will be pretty wide reaching every day. Temperatures will
continue to remain above average, but not like they will be earlier
in the week for Sunday and Monday thanks to the increasing clouds
and rain each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in
West Virginia will continue developing throughout this
afternoon and into the early evening hours. Mainly south of KLWB
vicinity but cannot rule out a shower there through 21 UTC.
Showers and storm will likely move south and east of KBLF, KBCB,
and KROA by 2100 UTC as well. Storms will last longer at KLYH
and especially KDAN through about 00Z before heading south and
east. Any storms could produce brief MVFR with heavy rain and very
gusty wind potential as well. Otherwise VFR and light winds will
prevail outside of storms.

Overnight, do not expect any showers or storms at TAF sites,
but locations that receive rainfall are likely to get patchy fog
after midnight if not sooner. KLWB most likely even with no
precip with clearing skies, and KDAN next most likely with best
chance of rainfall, along with KLYH and KBCB. So did including
period of MVFR to IFR fog at these locations lat tonight
through early morning.

A little less coverage of storms expected tomorrow and mainly
in the afternoon beyond the current TAF period, with focus south
of US 460. Light and variable winds during the day tomorrow as
well.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall mainly VFR weather to continue through the weekend and
most likely for most of next. We will continue to have
afternoon and early evening scattered storms through the
extended period and with best chances on Saturday and Sunday
mainly south of US 460, but spreading north again by Monday and
into the remainder of the week. Thus periods of sub- VFR are
possible in storms, and potential for late night/early morning
fog at LWB/BCB and perhaps other locations depending on daily
significant rainfall, will continue most likely all next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...RCS/SK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043-044-181930-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and storms may be strong to severe at times
through early evening. In addition, very heavy rainfall rates with
some storms could lead to localized flash flooding through the early
evening as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index readings could approach 100 degrees over the next couple
of days, especially on Monday. Otherwise the probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ045>047-058-059-181930-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and storms may be strong to severe at times
through early evening. In addition, very heavy rainfall rates with
some storms could lead to localized flash flooding through the early
evening as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index readings will reach to near 100 this weekend and by MOnday
could get closer to 105. Thus there is a potential for heat-related
headlines by Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-181930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
449 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

VAZ044-172115-
Pittsylvania-
449 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

At 449 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Climax, or near
Gretna, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Gretna...
Climax...
and Chalk Level.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3682 7951 3696 7949 3695 7922 3673 7931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 279DEG 13KT 3689 7942

BMG

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