Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
113 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
We will stay south of a front into Saturday as it stalls across
the mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley. Another front will finally push
through Saturday with less humid air arriving Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Thursday...

showers/storms forming along the southern Appalachians up the
Blue Ridge toward Roanoke early this afternoon, and will shift
across the piedmont thru the afternoon. A secondary area across
the WV mountains into far SW Va, especially late as piece of
upper shortwave heads from KY into the WV mountains by 8pm.
Expect heavy rainers, with storm motion in the 10-15 kt range.
Models showing best instability developing over the piedmont
this afternoon with MLCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/KG. There is a little
bit of dry air in the boundary layer despite dewpoints in the
60s where DCAPES exceed 1000 J/KG, so needless to say, damaging
winds are the main threat if storms reach severe limits. Warmer
boundary layer temps should limit hail size.

Nested NAM and other CAMs suggest storms start as individual
pulse but could take on a multi- cellular pattern as they shift
off the Blue Ridge this afternoon and head east- northeast
across the piedmont.

Look for a lull after 8-9pm, before next wave arrives overnight,
mainly impacting the central Appalachians, and for now keeping pops
overnight in the chance range across the mountains, while the
piedmont dries out.

The next upstream shortwave then arrives Friday and heads slowly
east to the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Will see another day where
coverage of showers/storms increases by midday into the mid
afternoon. The instability also increases but still lacking shear
and low levels are slightly more moist, so the severe threat is
limited, but cannot rule out isolated damaging winds, and localized
flooding, as storm motion stays somewhat limited by weaker flow
aloft.

Temperatures stay muggy tonight with lows in the 60s, and even 70
across the piedmont east of Highway 29. Cloud cover increasing
sooner Friday appears to limit heating, but still more typical of
early June with mid 70s to around 80 west, to mid 80s east.

Forecast confidence is best this afternoon/evening and then average
for storm coverage overnight into Friday. Confidence on temps is
above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic during Friday night and
cross overhead on Saturday. The threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms should linger throughout this time with activity
diminishing late Friday night and picking up again by Saturday
afternoon. A potent upper level trough should follow behind the cold
front on Saturday night, while high pressure begins to build from
the north. Drier and slightly cooler air will arrive by Sunday
morning as the cold front sags further southward.

With high pressure gaining control overhead on Sunday, all attention
will turn to Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC and the global
models still have this system on track to reach Louisiana during
Sunday night. As it heads northward along the lower Mississippi
River Valley by early Monday morning, an upper level ridge will
build across the Ohio River Valley and move eastward. This ridge
should push the upper level trough toward the Atlantic Ocean and set
up rather warm days ahead to start the new work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

The remnants of Cristobal will serve as the main weather interest
during this period as they cross over Arkansas and Missouri during
Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Mid Atlantic should remain warm
and dry with surface high pressure and an upper level ridge in
control. Eventually, a cold front should interact with the remnants
of Cristobal by Tuesday afternoon. Some of this tropical moisture
may sneak eastward and spark a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the northwest North Carolina mountains due to
orographical lift and instability.

The cold front should head eastward across the Ohio River Valley
during Tuesday night into Wednesday. Increasing moisture across the
Appalachian Mountains should lead to greater chances of showers and
thunderstorms by Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, confidence
has diminished on pinpointing the timing and impacts of the rainfall
due to increasing discrepancies in the global models. The ECMWF has
delayed the frontal passage to Wednesday night and Thursday, while
the GFS tries to block the forward progress of the cold front due to
an occluding low pressure area off the East Coast. Nevertheless, it
should remain rather warm throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 106 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Exceptions will
be with storms this afternoon, with most sites potentially see a
storm moving across with IFR vsbys to MVFR ceilings.

Should see less coverage after 00z/05, though another
disturbance may push more showers toward LWB/BLF after 00z, but
confidence is low on adding this to the taf. Also low confidence
on fog depending on how rain falls in vicinity of the airports
and any clearing occurs late tonight.

Another round of showers and storms expected Friday but mainly
after 18z.

Forecast confidence is high on ceilings/vsbys and winds outside
storms, and lower overnight with fog/vsbys.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Frontal boundary stays north of us into early Saturday before
pushing across during the day Sat. Expect good coverage of
storms Friday afternoon/early evening, the less overnight into
Saturday. VFR expect with storms and any late night fog.

High pressure builds in for Sunday into Monday, though we are
monitoring the track of Cristobal, but most models keep the rain
west of us through Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
333 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
050745-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
333 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. A few of these may
become strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and isolated
flooding the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-050745-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
333 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Today. A few of these may
become strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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