Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with southerly flow keeps a threat of scattered
showers and storms around in the afternoon and evening both
today and Friday. With such a humid airmass in place, foggy
conditions will develop overnight into early Friday morning. A
cold front enters the area by late Friday, exiting early
Saturday. Cooler and less humid air arrives with high pressure
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Clearing has finally accelerated early this afternoon as a
muggy airmass settles into the region. We are finally starting
to see our first boundary that will help kick start isolated
showers and thunderstorms stretching from Greenbrier down
through the Mountain Empire. This boundary will gradually
progress eastward with potentially more diurnally influenced
convection possible in other areas (most likely along the Blue
Ridge). It remains unclear exactly how widespread storms will
get this afternoon with CAMs remaining diverse in amounts.
Becuase of this, have stuck with widesprad low POPs.

Regardless of the amount of showers and storms this afternoon,
the loss of heating this evening will start the drop in POPs
through midnight. After which, fog will start to develop,
especially in the valleys and in areas where it will rain this
evening. Outside of the fog, the notable part of the overnight
forecast will be how soupy it will feel with lows in the
60s/70s and dewpoints not much lower than that.

Healthy SW flow will start to mix low clouds out after sunrise
tomorrow, continuing to usher in a warm, humid airmass.
Already, most models point to a pretty good line of showers and
storms developing generally along the Blue Ridge by early
afternoon before becoming more widespread and moving eastward.
Tomorrow will end with a front knocking on the west's door.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Surface cold front will cross the forecast area Friday night
bringing a transition in airmass. Showers may linger inter early
Saturday, but the overall trend is for drying this weekend with High
pressure building into the area from the northwest. Sunday is
expected to be the clearest day with sunny skies and much lower
dewpoints.

Will continue to entertain scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday night, and a few lingering showers Saturday, but will go
completely dry across the entire forecast area for the remainder of
the weekend...Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday night.

For the most part, near normal temperatures are expected this
weekend, Saturday being the warmest with highs 75 to 83, and Sunday
the coolest with highs 67 to 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the
mid section of the country with troughing near both the West/East
coasts. This will promote northwest flow aloft for our region which
will initially start off dry on Monday but then get progressively
wetter as we transition into mid-week as a surface front drops into
the area from the north and stalls.  This front is expected to
become the focus for scattered showers and Thunderstorms for Tuesday
through Thursday.

The coolest day of the week is expected to be Monday with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s, then moderate into into the 80s by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

A growing cumulus field this afternoon will produce some brief
moments of sub VFR conditions for most sites this afternoon.
With the growing cumulus field also comes some isolated to
scattered showers and storms. The opportunity for storms for
those along and west of the Blue Ridge will come later this
evening.

Convection will gradually diminish after sunset this evening.
Replacing the chance for rain will be developing fog/lower
clouds. Areas in and near valleys as well as where rain falls
this evening will experience the greatest fog.

With sunrise tomorrow, returning SW flow will help to try and
mix out fog. Late in the TAF forecast period, though not
reflected, showers and storms become possible again with
coverage starting generally near the Blue Ridge.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Better setup Friday with sub- VFR likely in showers/storms.

A cold front comes through the area late Friday into early Saturday
bringing a more widespread chance of precipitation and MVFR or
lower flight conditions. Should see VFR Sunday-Monday as high
pressure dries things out. However, late night fog/low cigs may
occur given high moisture at the surface, especially along river
valleys/BCB/LWB.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

BLF observations came back at 4am once power was restored.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RR/WP
NEAR TERM...RR/WP
SHORT TERM...PM/RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RR/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-291845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
235 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. A few storms may
become strong enough to produce damaging winds and localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon. A few of
these may be severe. The main threats will be damaging winds and
localized flooding.

For Saturday through Monday, no hazardous weather is expected.

Thunderstorms will bring return for potential hazardous weather
by the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible Friday afternoon.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
224 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

VAZ010>013-281900-
Giles-Pulaski-Bland-Wythe-
224 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...A HEAVY SHOWER WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN
GILES...EASTERN BLAND AND NORTH CENTRAL WYTHE COUNTIES...

At 224 PM EDT, a heavy shower was located near Bland, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Bland...
Long Spur...
Mechanicsburg...
Kimberling...
Chapel...
and White Gate.

This shower may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3729 8103 3730 8099 3730 8098 3729 8098
      3730 8095 3711 8077 3698 8108 3703 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 229DEG 16KT 3703 8108

VFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
234 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

VAZ007-009-010-012-015-281915-
Tazewell-Grayson-Bland-Wythe-Smyth-
234 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SMYTH...EAST CENTRAL
TAZEWELL...SOUTHWESTERN BLAND...WESTERN WYTHE AND WESTERN GRAYSON
COUNTIES...

At 234 PM EDT, an area of showers was located over Troutdale, or
near Sugar Grove, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Wytheville...
Rural Retreat...
Ceres...
Mount Rogers National Recreation Area...
Speedwell...
Sugar Grove...
and Burkes Garden.

This shower may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3718 8133 3691 8104 3657 8139 3658 8152
      3669 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 229DEG 15KT 3669 8145

VFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

VAZ010>013-WVZ042-281945-
Giles-Pulaski-Bland-Wythe-Mercer-
307 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN GILES...BLAND...NORTHERN WYTHE
AND SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

At 307 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Favonia, or
near Wytheville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski...
Wytheville...
Bland...
Dublin...
Max Meadows...
Rocky Gap...
and Bastian.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3688 8120 3699 8129 3742 8096 3709 8062
      3690 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 230DEG 24KT 3698 8118

VFJ