Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Front expected to track southeast to our area Friday, washing
out by Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday with slightly
less humid weather. A potential change in the weather pattern
arrives on Tuesday or Wednesday with the passage of a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Higher theta-e aligned from west to east across central/northern
NC/east TN, with best forcing across the Ohio Valley. There are 2
distinct areas of convection, one ahead of the shortwave across
WV/KY/VA border into the Cumberland Plateau, and then across the
theta-e boundary across the NC mountains east to mainly along 421 to
the Triad then east toward Durham.

Will see best coverage in the mountains and foothills this afternoon
as unstable airmass works with the approaching shortwave as well as
a few outflows get more convection forming and moving in.

Been seeing storms moving along at 10 to 20 kts, so not expecting a
big flooding threat, but with PWATS over 1.6 inches+, will see
localized flooding, but coverage does not warrant a watch.

Storms will be moving east/southeast this evening. Expect higher
pops in the east/southeast, then subsiding overnight. Front
approaches Friday morning, so not going completely rainfree on pops.
As front moves to our northern CWA Friday will lean toward a
solution that shows 2 areas of higher pops, one near the front over
the Alleghanys to Lynchburg and 2nd where upper vort and deeper
moisture resides across the southern CWA.

Showers/storms should edge southward by Friday night.

Temperatures still at or just above normal this period, while
humidity stays elevated, though dewpoints are expected to drop some
by late Friday night in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Surface high pressure is expected to nose south in the wake of weak
cold front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. This will
result in slightly lower surface dew points pushing into northern
sections of the forecast area, and a trend towards overall lower
precipitable water levels for much of the forecast area. The better
capping aloft and less low level moisture, will mean a trend towards
less chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The best chance
of storms will be across southwest mountains Saturday afternoon.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 80s in the
mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Any diurnal storms will
diminish quickly Saturday evening, followed by partly cloudy
conditions. Low temperatures saturday night into Sunday morning will
vary from the upper 50s in the cooler mountains valleys to near 70
degrees in the piedmont. On Sunday, precipitation chances dip a
little more with the center of the high a bit closer to the region
with the remnants of the weak cold front even less well defined as a
focus for convection. High temperatures on Sunday will generally be
from the lower 80s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the
piedmont. Sunday night will be clear to partly cloudy with low
temperatures from near 60 degrees in the west to the lower 70s in
the east.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Hot and humid pattern continues through the first of next week with
a broad ridge centered over the United States. This will continue
the chance for isolated/scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, models and ensemble guidance hinting
at an upper level trough dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes
and New England region, along with an associated front. Ahead of and
behind the cold front, there will be a brief break in the heat and
humidity, but with an uptick in thunderstorm coverage. The frontal
boundary should push through our region by Wednesday night into
Thursday.  There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the
frontal boundary.

Confidence in long range forecast is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Thursday...

Have more coverage of storms today and should see storms around
all airports through dusk. Tried to time with tempo groups the
best window where storms would impact all airports. Outside
storms expect VFR with light winds, then IFR or worse in heavy
rain.

Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish after
midnight. Expecting enough cloud cover to limit fog formation
for much of the night, but should see some MVFR to IFR cigs at
times in the mountains. Any lower cigs will rise to VFR by
15-18z Friday.

Above average confidence on ceilings/vsbys/wind.

Average confidence on thunderstorm timing/coverage.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall mainly VFR weather to continue through the weekend into
early next week. We will continue to have afternoon and early
evening scattered storms through the period. Sub-VFR conditions are
likely in storms, and there is a potential for late night/early
morning fog at LWB/BCB and perhaps other locations depending on
where there is daily significant rainfall.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-240900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat, but
large hail and localized flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>