River Flood Warning 6, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep upper low was moving slowly eastward through the eastern U.s.
Widespread heavy rain and even thunderstorms were accompanying the
front bringing widespread flooding to the region. Drier and much
colder air will spread into the region Friday and over the weekend.
Another weather system will bring rain back to the area early next
week along with warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Wedge front has held firm all day keeping the main threat of severe
weather to our south/southeast. However, the positioning of the deep
upper trough and the associated southwest flow has allowed very deep
Gulf moisture to flow unseasonably far north. As a result, flooding
has been a significant issue and areal flooding and river flooding
will continue to be an issue as the excessive water runs downstream.

We are starting to see the trough shift far enough east that the
back edge of the precipitation was nearing our western CWA border.
Additional waves are expected to track northeast through the night
allowing for additional lighter precipitation to continue overnight.
Colder air will also begin to filter into the region from the
northwest overnight, likely changing the rain showers to snow
showers in the western mountains upslope areas by daybreak. Due to
ongoing flooding and communications problems here locally, no major
changes have been made to the grids.
Likely to categorical pops tracking east during the evening tapering
off to just chance pops in the mountains with chance pops for
rain/snow showers in the west on Friday.

Medium to high confidence in the forecast through the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. GIVING WAY TO ONLY SOME
MOUNTAINS FLURRIES. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WEAK PASSING
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. WITH A NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT, WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS PASSING FEATURE TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT MAINLY RAIN WITH ONLY SOME WET
FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, AROUND AN INCH OR LESS, MAINLY EXPECTED AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT MOST OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH ONLY
MAYBE A PASSING SHOWER/DRIZZLE TO THE EAST. TEMPS DROP RATHER
QUICKLY INTO THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SO ANY WET AND UNTREATED
ROADWAYS MAY REFREEZE, CAUSING SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY APPEARING TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPERS 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
IN THE UPPERS 20S, MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN FLOW
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL TAP INTO MORE GULF MOISTURE AND WILL STREAM NORTH ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS, BUT STILL SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WELL THANKS TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 AM EST Thursday...

While much of the area has temporarily returned to VFR ceilings and
visibilities, conditions are expected to worsen again to IFR/MVFR
levels as we progress into the mid to late morning. Numerous rounds
of showers are expected today, along with the potential for some
isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern section of the area.
A cold front will cross the area tonight, and we will transition to
northwest flow across the region and gusty conditions across the
mountains. Upslope rain showers are expected across the preferred
regions of southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains
of North Carolina. As the night progresses, enough cold air will enter
the area for a transition for some snow showers.

Today, low level winds will be very strong across a low level
inversion in advance of the approaching cold front. Low level wind
shear will be possible for parts of the area until the cold front
crosses the region.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Aviation conditions will be poor through the entire period
favoring IFR-MVFR at best. Rain showers Friday will transition
to mountains snow showers and snow flurries Friday night.
Scattered rain and snow showers with sub-VFR conditions are
possible during the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1100 AM EST Wednesday...

Heavy rain/flooding event still appears to be on track over the next
48 hours but in still contending with QPF (forecast rainfall)
substantial uncertainties remain. Subtle shifts in the track of
mesoscale elements and banded features with heavier rainfall can
move water from one basin to another rather easily, especially in
the complex terrain and varied hydrology of the Blacksburg
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). At this point in the proceedings,
with the vast bulk of the rain yet to come every major river basin
in the HSA still looks to be affected with significant rises but the
focus for heaviest rainfall and possible flooding remains the Dan
and lower Roanoke River basins. Forecast guidance from the various
River Forecast Centers have all been updated this morning and most
of the forecast points in all the major river basins are seen to
reach Action stage (usually a few feet below Minor flood stage) or a
bit higher. The Dan River from Wentworth NC to South Boston however
is currently shown going into the higher end of the Minor flood
category. It is worth noting that all of the flood stages on the Dan
were raised several feet last year, and these would have been
higher end Moderate floods back then. At Danville for example,
the current forecast crest just over 25 feet would have been
just below Major flood stage and around the 5th highest on
record (only since 1996 however) and close to the April 2017
flood event. So a lot of water moving through the system. River
Flood Warnings will likely be issued this evening or early
tomorrow as certainty increases and with the flood crests not
forecast until Friday or Saturday.

In addition to the river flood threat, the chances for flash
flooding remain substantial as well. Embedded higher rate
rainfall is possible on top of increasingly wet soils in what is
still the 'dead' of winter, a time of year with maximum runoff
efficiency. WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 12z
Thursday to 12z Friday maintains a fairly broad area of Moderate
risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance (the amount of
rain in a specific duration needed to bring most streams to
bankfull) across northwest NC and into south central VA. 3-hour
totals in excess of 2 to 2.5 inches could begin to initiate
runoff problems and several mesoscale models are showing such
rates during portions of that time window.

A Flood Watch exists for the entire HSA and that covers both river
flooding and the increased likelihood that pockets of flash flooding
may occur where rain bands track repeatedly across the same small
basins.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
  032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...JJM/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...Sleighter/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059-071830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-071830-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLOOD            1 W CEDAR BLUFF         37.09N 81.78W
02/06/2020                   TAZEWELL           VA   PUBLIC

            CLINCH RIVER FLOODING ALONG EDGEWATER AND
            INDIAN SPRINGS DRIVE.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      YADKINVILLE             36.13N 80.66W
02/06/2020                   YADKIN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE YADKIN COUNTY 911 CALL CENTER REPORTED
            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE
            TO FLOODING. SEVERAL CREEKS HAVE BEEN
            OBSERVED FLOWING OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW WILKESBORO        36.15N 81.17W
02/06/2020                   WILKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ARBOR ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOBSON                  36.39N 80.72W
02/06/2020                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE SURRY COUNTY 911 CALL CENTER REPORTED
            NUMEROUS CREEKS CURRENTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS
            ACROSS THE COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED
            ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLOOD            1 NE DOBSON             36.40N 80.72W
02/06/2020                   SURRY              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RADAR ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM
            THE ARARAT RIVER. FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED
            ALONG STEWARTS CREEK, CODY CREEK AND FISHER
            RIVER.

&&

PJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            3 S RURAL RETREAT       36.86N 81.28W
02/06/2020                   WYTHE              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FAIRVIEW CHURCH ROAD FLOODED FROM SOUTH FORK
            REED CREEK. STONEY FORK ROAD FLOODED FROM
            STONEY FORK CREEK. MILLERS CREEK ROAD
            FLOODED FROM MILLERS CREEK. FIRST REPORT
            RECEIVED AT 9:15 AM EST.

&&

PJH