Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Blacksburg, VA

336 
WGUS71 KRNK 170301
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1101 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

VAC005-017-163-678-170545-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200517T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA-City of Lexington VA-Bath VA-Rockbridge VA-
1101 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT FOR 
NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY...EASTERN BATH AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

At 1100 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicates that moderate to heavy 
rainfall continues within the warned area.  Two to three inches of 
rain has fallen across parts of the warned area during the past 
couple of hours. Flash flooding remains possible.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lexington...
Clifton Forge...
Goshen...
Millboro...
Collierstown...
Rockbridge Baths...
and Iron Gate.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Blue Suck Branch, Thompson Creek, Bolshers Run, Little Calfpasture
River and Pisgah Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 7952 3816 7952 3816 7953 3815 7953
      3816 7950 3813 7946 3810 7949 3808 7947
      3793 7922 3769 7945 3781 7982 3820 7956

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

RAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
845 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the region this evening into
tonight and stall on Sunday. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley on
Sunday will push a cold front through our area on Monday as the low
moves slowly into the Carolinas by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday

No changes from the afternoon's forecast package for this
evening. Two main areas of convection are being watched this
evening that are resting along the residual front over the north
CWA. Guidance continues to indicate that this rain will wrap up
and lift northward out of the CWA. Though NAM nest wants to show
convection remaining well defined in the east for several more
hours. This may come to fruition with a boundary coming across
Wakefield's area. Regardless, POPs for the north and west are
being maintained for the next several hours. Continued
backbuilding along the boundary is resulting in flooding
problems for areas in and surrounding Bath Co where deeper
convection earlier brought heavy rainfall.

As of 212 PM EDT Saturday...

 A backdoor cold front will drop south across the region this
evening and stall tonight. The 18z SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows that
that Convective Available Potential Energy has climbed into the 500-
1000 J/Kg range. With heating and instability expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead and along the frontal
boundary this afternoon and continue into tonight. The HRRR, HiResW-
arw-east and NAM showed convection developing between 18z-22z. The
best chance will be across the north to northeastern portions of the
forecast area generally north of Highway 460. The Day One Convective
Outlook keeps us in general thunderstorms. Model data showed
northeast to east winds and a layer of stable air from the surface
to nearly 850MB tonight. Low clouds and fog will develop and spread
southwest overnight, especially along the east slopes of the
Blue Ridge. The best chances of fog will be where it rains this
afternoon. Low temperature tonight will range from the lower 50s
in the mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont. The
combination of a ridge over the East and a potential tropical
system off the southeast coast,the Appalachians will be in a
strengthening wedge Sunday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
Sunday will vary from the mid 60s in the northern mountains to
the mid 80s in the piedmont.

Confidence in Near term forecast is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 212 PM EDT Saturday...

Sunday night through Tuesday night our weather pattern will be
dominated by the influence of the slow approach and stall of an
upper level low pressure system. This system is expected to be over
the Chicago area Sunday night, and meander southeast and become
stalled over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region. The position of
this low will allow for an increasing flow off the Gulf of Mexico
that will advect moisture into our region. The result will be a
three day stretch with abundant showers and some thunderstorms
during the day, and lesser amounts during the nighttime after we
lose the influence of diurnal convection. Temperatures during this
portion of the forecast will trend slightly cooler each day thanks
to the slow approach of the low.

One feature that may influence the above scenario is an area of low
pressure that is expected to head north along the East Coast.
Subsidence on the west side of this low could slow the approach of
the already slow moving upper low.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 212 PM EDT Saturday...

A broad upper low pressure center will start this portion of the
forecast period centered over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys.
From there, guidance paints various pictures as to the track and
speed at which this system passes over, or near our region. While
showing somewhat different tracks, the GFS and the European
solutions inch the low towards our location through Wednesday night,
and then it heads somewhat faster almost due north as a weaker upper
low or an open trough to either New England (per the GFS) or over
the Great Lakes (per the European). An upper ridge starts again to
build into the area for the start of the weekend into next week. The
Canadian solution is much more poky. It prefers a due east track for
the upper low with it not becoming centered over our region until
Friday evening. It picks up a little more speed heading into the
weekend, with the low heading eastward off the East Coast near the
Delmarva Peninsula. Per this solutions, a hint of upper ridging
starts to return to the area next Saturday night into next Sunday.

Our forecast will resemble more of a GFS/European blend with showers
and some storms likely to impact our region Wednesday through
Friday. Temperatures will be coolest Wednesday with the center of
the low closest to our region. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Thursday and continue that trend through the weekend as the low
departs and the ridge builds.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

Convection continues this evening for those north of the I64
corridor as well as east of LYH. Guidance remains indifferent on
whether the storms east of LYH will progress back westward along
a boundary coming across central VA at the moment.

Ceilings will lower after 00Z/8PM, reaching MVFR levels by
04Z/Midnight as far west as KLWB and KBLF. During the overnight
ceilings will be IFR to LIFR.

Low clouds will continue to spread into the region from the
northeast resulting in widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings into
Sunday.

Average confidence for ceilings, visibility and wind during the
taf period. Below average confidence on the occurrence of
thunderstorms at any specific TAF site.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The combination of a deepening, very slow moving upper
low drifting into the region from the northwest Sunday night-Monday
and remaining well into next week will result in an extended
period of widespread rain, along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. When not raining, MVFR drizzle, fog and low
clouds are likely Sunday through Tuesday. Sub-VFR conditions are
possible past Tuesday depending on how long the upper low
lingers in the area. If it lingers MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RR
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/RR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
236 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-171845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
236 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Monday night along
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

VAZ020-162345-
Bath-
715 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN BATH COUNTY...

At 715 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Nimrod Hall, or
near Millboro, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nimrod Hall.

LAT...LON 3793 7966 3796 7974 3809 7970 3803 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 204DEG 5KT 3798 7967

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

VAZ047-162345-
Buckingham-
716 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 716 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Andersonville,
or 7 miles south of Buckingham, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dillwyn...
Sheppards...
Andersonville...
and Toga.

LAT...LON 3736 7845 3735 7855 3736 7856 3737 7858
      3738 7858 3738 7859 3739 7858 3740 7859
      3738 7863 3739 7864 3742 7864 3742 7865
      3747 7866 3759 7845 3746 7838
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 246DEG 7KT 3744 7859

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
854 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNTAIN GROVE          38.10N 79.89W
05/16/2020  E3.75 INCH       BATH               VA   PUBLIC

&&

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE MOUNTAIN GROVE    38.09N 79.86W
05/16/2020                   BATH               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE BATH COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED
            THAT OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR
            RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS ACROSS THE
            ROADWAY AND EVENTUALLY THE ROAD WAS WASHED
            OUT AND IS NOW IMPASSIBLE AND CLOSED.

&&

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW INGALLS FIELD      37.96N 79.86W
05/16/2020                   BATH               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD SLIDES AND DEBRIS ALONG U.S. 220 NEAR
            HOT SPRINGS WASHED LARGE ROCK BOULDERS IN
            THE ROADWAY. THE HIGHWAY IS CLOSED FOR
            SEVERAL MILES THROUGH THE HOT SPRINGS AREA.

&&

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS             38.00N 79.83W
05/16/2020                   BATH               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOWNTOWN AREA OF HOT SPRINGS NEAR THE BATH
            HOUSE FOR A COUPLE OF MILES TO THE SOUTH
            FLOODED. U.S. 220 IMPASSIBLE.

&&

RAB