Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue with mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. A cold front
arrives Thursday night. Slightly drier weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 248 PM Monday...

Latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates a building
cumulus field along the Ohio River with storms now firing over
southeast OH westward into KY. This is occurring along an old
diffuse frontal boundary. Upstream trends are kind of worrisome
as storms are lining up and essentially training along this
boundary as flow aloft parallels the front over central and
western KY. Will need to monitor this closely as heavy rain may
become a factor over the Tri-State region this afternoon.
Elsewhere, additional showers/storms are developing over the
higher terrain of southwest VA and anticipate additional
scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the afternoon for
all but our far northwest OH counties. These storms will also
produce locally heavy rainfall and carry a threat for isolated
wind damage.

The thunderstorm activity should diminish with the setting sun,
however, the front will remain in the area. Models also
indicate a mid level wave passes by late in the night into
Tuesday morning so did bring in some higher PoPs towards dawn
over our northwest tier of counties.

Tuesday will be a similar day to today, except I anticipate the
front should begin shifting northward so the focus for
showers/storms will be across our northern counties and in the
mountains, with more scattered activity elsewhere. PWATs remain
high so localized heavy rainfall will be a concern, along with
isolated damaging winds.

Otherwise, continued hot and humid with little change noted in
temps or dewpoints. Heat indices in the lowlands approach 100
again tomorrow afternoon but come up just shy of heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 241 PM Monday...

Latest models show an upper level high should be centered to our
south with wsw flow across much of the area.  Several short wave
troughs are progged to push east in this flow.  As a result, expect
hot temperatures will continue with mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

SPC currently has the area in marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
for Wednesday with the greatest threat being damaging winds from a
storm or two.

As far as temperatures go, I generally went with a blend of model
guidance which is close to the previous forecast.  Expect afternoon
readings should be in the lower 90s. However, abundant low-
level moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s across the
lowlands will make it feel several degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 241 PM Monday...

An upper level ridge will build across the middle of the
country on Thursday with a trough developing to our east by
Friday. A cold front is expected to push southeast on Thursday
and then remain in the area on Friday.

Expect showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to daytime
heating and the front on Thursday and again on Friday.

Long range models indicate the upper high will build east with some
timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF.  Either model suggests
less shower and thunderstorm coverage for the weekend.

Confidence is low for the forecast on Monday as the ECMWF generally
leaves the upper high in place while the GFS flattens the ridge.
Have generally gone with a model blend which indicates more
widespread coverage of showers and storms on Monday.

Afternoon temperatures should remain above normal through the
period.  However, lower dewpoints will result in apparent
temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Latest high resolution satellite imagery shows an increasing
cumulus field roughly along the Ohio River where showers and
thunderstorms are in the process of erupting. These will dot the
landscape through the afternoon into the early evening hours
with localized and brief IFR conditions where they hit. The
thunderstorm activity will diminish quickly with sunset.
However, a passing weak disturbance may potentially bring an
increase in shower activity late in the night across our
northern counties so included a VCSH mention late at PKB, CKB
and EKN. Otherwise, areas that receive rain this afternoon will
likely see some fog later tonight. I painted a period of MVFR
conditions in the TAFs later tonight for now and later shifts
will have to fine tune that once we know where the rain falls.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of afternoon
thunderstorms will vary. Fog could be locally dense tonight
where rain falls this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/JSH
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ABE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

WVZ005-006-013>016-018-024-027>030-211015-
Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Mingo-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central, southern
and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, all
mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

High temperatures and humidity may warrant heat advisories Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. Heat indices are currently forecast to
reach the upper 90s to near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, and
the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ007>011-017-019-020-031-032-211015-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Harrison-Taylor-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northern and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon and
evening.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, all
mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

High temperatures and humidity may warrant heat advisories Monday
and Tuesday afternoons. Heat indices are currently forecast to reach
the upper 90s to near 100 Tuesday afternoon, and the mid to upper 90s
Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-211015-
Perry-Morgan-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Perry and Morgan counties in
east-central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ025-026-211015-
Logan-Boone-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Boone and Logan counties in
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, all
mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-211015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

High temperatures and humidity may warrant heat advisories Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. Heat indices are currently forecast to
reach the upper 90s to near 100 Tuesday afternoon, and the mid to
upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ075-076-083>087-211015-
Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon and
evening.

Heat indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

High temperatures and humidity may warrant heat advisories Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. Heat indices are currently forecast to
reach the upper 90s to near 100 Tuesday afternoon, and the mid to
upper 90s Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-039-040-519>526-211015-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, portions
of extreme southern West Virginia, and the northern and central
mountains of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, all
mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ034-515>518-211015-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-
607 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is the southern mountains of West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, all
mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

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