Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Shortwave brings showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
High pressure in control through Wednesday. Another heat wave expected
by the middle of the week. Cold front by the end of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

Made some further reductions to PoPs for the next few hours
with most activity focused ahead of the approaching trough axis.
Overall, convection is on the downward trend and would expect
this trend to continue heading into the late evening, however a
few strong to marginally severe storms remain will remain
possible over the next couple hours across our western counties.

Skies clear quickly with passage of the trough axis tonight with
temperatures falling to saturation into the early morning hours.
Will see at least river fog forming heading into the morning hours,
with additional patchy fog across areas that do receive any
measurable rainfall this evening.

As of 415 PM Sunday...

Pared back PoP coverage to isold/low end sct across much of
this area this afternoon with more robust activity mainly
focused along a psuedo warm front across southeast Ohio,
northern West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania. Further
south, the cumulus field does show some agitation with a few
diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms popping up over the next
couple hours, but would expect more significant coverage to hold
off until arrival of better mid-level forcing with approach the
upper trough currently across the lower Ohio Valley late this
afternoon/early evening. Given the presence of 30-35KT deep
layer shear at least some updraft organization will be possible
with these storms, in addition to any bonus near surface
baroclinic vorticity generation near the aforementioned
boundary.

As of 220 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers continue to move across the northern half of
the CWA this afternoon and more widespread convection is
expected later in the day as a shortwave trough and cold front
approach from the west. While showers currently continue to be
of a scattered nature, increased instability with this incoming
system may allow for more organized convection later today.

Persistent cloud cover along the northern portion of the CWA has
helped to keep temperatures somewhat cooler this afternoon
which may help limit stronger storm formation in that area.
That being said, the entire CWA is still within a marginal risk
of both severe storms and excessive rainfall. With PW values in
the 1-2" range and CAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, could have some
heavy downpours within some of the stronger storms. Should any
storms become severe, wind is the primary threat expected.

The trough axis and cold front are expected to push through the
area overnight with high pressure gradually building in behind.
During the day Monday, high pressure strengthens as upper level
ridging moves into the area. Should be a fairly dry day, though
and afternoon shower or storm may develop. Temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper
60s to upper 70s in the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Quiet weather conditions will continue as a sfc high pressure builds
from the north Tuesday. Models show H500 ridge gradually building
over the OH Valley by Wednesday. Soundings show very dry column
aloft through this period. Therefore, negated chances for
precipitation resulting in a very dry period.

Temperatures return to above normal, reaching the mid 90s by
Wednesday afternoon. Another heat wave is progged by Wednesday, with
heat index reaching the mid 90s Wednesday afternoon and even the
upper 90s by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Models show H500 ridging moving east of the area early Thursday.
However, a broader H500 high pressure system is expected to develop
over the central plains, perhaps leaving a corridor in the northern
stream for embedded shortwaves to ride along into our area. Showers
or storms can be expected with each shortwave by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

Diurnal showers near CKB/EKN will fade over the next couple
hours, while a more substantial line of showers and
thunderstorms associated with an approaching upper level wave will
march east across the forecast area this evening. Highest
confidence in TS impact on station at HTS with lesser chances at
CRW/BKW as the line weakens after sunset.

Skies clear quickly as the upper level wave passes tonight with
temperatures dropping quickly to saturation under very light
northwesterly flow. Dense river valley fog forms heading into
the early hours, with more patchy fog possible away from rivers
in areas that receive measurable precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of convection may
differ. Extent of fog overnight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR River fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-131845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become strong to
perhaps severe with strong gusty winds as the primary threat. The
Storm Prediction Center indicates there is a Marginal Risk of severe
weather for the entire region through this evening. Isolated high
water impacts may also occur with some of the slower moving
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW HOLLY RIVER STATE 38.59N 80.39W
07/12/2020                   WEBSTER            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON RT 20 ON HODAM
            MOUNTAIN.

&&

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

OHZ087-130015-
Lawrence-
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY...

At 748 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Vesuvius,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ironton, Lake Vesuvius, Vernon and Pedro.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3868 8276 3868 8271 3872 8270 3867 8251
      3852 8264 3859 8276 3860 8274 3865 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 296DEG 14KT 3866 8272

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