Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
238 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat persists with mainly diurnally driven convection. A cold
front breaks the heat this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

The heat wave continues. An upper level short wave trough, or
weakness, was helping to focus convection over the middle Ohio
valley this afternoon. While that convection will not make it
east of the Ohio River, instability building to 2-3 KJ/kg and
light and variable flow through the column spell pulse pop-up
slow movers with high rainfall rates given PW values of 1.7-1.8
in, a little less over central WV. Convection was also beginning
to fire over the higher mountainous terrain on the elevated
heat source effect there.

River valley fog is most likely to form overnight tonight where
rain occurs this afternoon or evening.

Ridging may build a bit to the north Wednesday as a rex block
develops, with upper level low pressure to the south. This may
hold down convection a bit, and the forecast is for scattered
convection over the higher terrain and isolated convection
elsewhere.

Central guidance reflects a persistence forecast for
temperatures and dew points, which spells apparent temperatures
in the mid and upper 90s this and Wednesday afternoon, with 100
not out of reach for hotter urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

The upper level pattern begins to transition into a rex block
orientation Wednesday night into Thursday with a mid level ridge
across the Northeast US and a coastal low moving northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. This pattern should support a
continuation of the warm and humid conditions across our area with
temperatures around ten degrees above normal. In addition, scattered
convection will be possible across the area during peak heating in
the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday given the warm and humid
airmass in place. With little to no shear and a lack of upper
support, any activity is expected to be pulse convection with a main
threat for locally heavy downpours as PWATs are expected to exceed
1.75 inches. While convective coverage should be somewhat limited on
Thursday due to lack of forcing, precipitation coverage is expected
to increase on Friday as an upper level trough and associated
frontal boundary approaches the region. Thus, will leave widespread
high chance PoPs in the forecast for now, but wouldn't be surprised
if likely PoPs gets introduced into subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the area
at the start of the long term period as the aforementioned frontal
boundary pushes through. Precipitation coverage should decrease by
Saturday night as the upper trough and frontal boundary push east of
the area, but showers and storms still appear to be possible on
Sunday as additional shortwave energy moves into the region. By
early next week, conditions are expected to remain unsettled as
models suggest that a closed upper low may develop near or over the
region Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, temperatures will be
slightly cooler this weekend following the frontal passage, but
still will remain just above normal through the end of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Heat wave pattern continues, with diurnally driven convection
again this afternoon. Convection was already firing in southeast
Ohio, and should fire over the higher mountainous terrain as
well.

Valley fog tonight is most likely to form in areas that get
rain this afternoon or evening. Any fog that does form is
likely to burn off by or shortly after 12Z Wednesday, with
diurnally driven convection once again Wednesday afternoon.

Surface flow will remain light and variable. Light southerly
flow aloft becomes light and variable as well this afternoon,
and then light northeast on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for direct
thunderstorm impacts this afternoon or evening. Fog formation
may vary overnight, especially where rain occurs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible with valley fog in the late night/early morning
hours each day except at BKW, especially if rain falls at the
terminal in daytime showers/storms. Brief IFR possible in
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night, and in fog or stratus overnight Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/RG
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RG
LONG TERM...RG
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
317 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
080730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
317 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indices may flirt with Heat Advisory levels nearly each
afternoon during this week. Heat index values each afternoon should
briefly peak in the upper 90s to perhaps around 100 degrees. A Heat
Advisory may eventually be required for portions of the area if
conditions become hotter than currently forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-080730-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
317 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

OHZ066-067-071945-
Morgan-Perry-
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 319 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered across Perry and
Morgan Counties, and were nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with any of
the storms this afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, McConnelsville, Somerset, Shawnee, Chesterhill, Perry
State Forest, Thornport, Harbor Hills, Crooksville, Thornville,
Junction City, New Straitsville, Malta, Corning, Stockport, Bristol,
Glenford, Hemlock, Rendville and Burr Oak State Park.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3991 8217 3982 8217 3982 8208 3977 8207
      3975 8164 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8159
      3958 8172 3948 8171 3949 8182 3945 8183
      3946 8205 3955 8205 3960 8238 3974 8236
      3974 8241 3983 8240 3984 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 189DEG 8KT 3977 8231

HART