Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection/active weather ahead of a cold front. High pressure
for the weekend. Warming trend with disturbances middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into the area ahead of a
cold front, which is along a trough associated with a surface
low to the far north of the area. Some of the thunderstorms may
be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible,
particularly in the northeast part of the area. The cold front
should move through this evening into tonight, with showers
likely along the front as it passes. Showers will linger longest
along the east and in the mountains, tapering out by Saturday
morning. Saturday should be on the cooler side and dry as high
pressure begins to approach the area.

Temperatures on Friday night will be in the 50s to low 60s
across the lowlands with mid to high 50s for the higher
elevations. Saturday's temperatures will be around normal for
this time of the year with low to mid 70s for the lowlands and
in the 60s to lower 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 PM Friday...

Sfc weather guidance shows a broad high pressure over and west of
the Great Lakes region. Models bring this high pressure southeast to
cover the entire OH Valley and WV Sunday and Monday. This will
result in a dry and cooler weather through early next week. By
Tuesday, the center of the high pressure will shift east along the
Mid Atlantic coast. This location will bring back the southwest flow
locally to warm up temperatures to normal levels.

Temperatures will start about 9 degrees below normal for highs on
Sunday, generally under 70 degrees. Then, expect a gradual warming
reaching normal values by Tuesday. Lows will remain below normal
Sunday and Monday nights generally in the low to mid 40s lowlands,
ranging to the mid 30s highest peaks of our northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 247 PM Friday...

By mid week, a slow moving cold front approaches the area from the
north. At this time, it looks like this feature will stay north of
the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Meanwhile, an upper
ridge develops over the Gulf states keeping the local area under
northwest flow aloft. An upper level short wave drops under
northwest flow Wednesday night into early Thursday increasing
chances for showers or storms. This feature will push a cold
front to reach portions of southeast OH Thursday afternoon.

Abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will advect into the
region to enhance bouyancy. PWATs will increase to 1.8 inches by
Thursday afternoon. Dynamic instability looks rather weak for
this period. However, showers and storms are likely under juicy
unstable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Thunderstorms are possible over the next few hours near and at
the sites, starting with the more southwestern sites, moving
toward the northeast. Visibilities and ceilings could drop
briefly in these storms and wind gusts are also possible. Rain
showers will likely continue through the evening and beginning
of the night as a cold front moves through the area tonight.
Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR for most sites behind the
cold front. Fog may also form late tonight through tomorrow
morning, leading to IFR ceilings and visibilities, most likely
at EKN, BKW, and CRW. The other sites may also fog and have MVFR
in visibilities and possibly ceilings, however it could be
possible that these sites drop down into the IFR range as well.
Conditions should begin to improve to VFR conditions around
sunrise.

Winds may be gusty at times during thunderstorms. Overall, winds
begin the period from the southwest around 5-10KTs, becoming
light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TSRA timing may vary. Fog and IFR
conditions may vary for the sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR river valley fog possible Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

OHZ076-WVZ009>011-019-020-028>032-039-040-521>526-300730-
Washington-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
328 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging winds
are the main threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-083>087-VAZ004-WVZ006>008-013>018-024>027-033-034-
515>520-300730-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Buchanan-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
328 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
portions of southwest Virginia, and portions of central West
Virginia, northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern
West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging
winds and hail are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-WVZ005-300730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Wayne-
328 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southwest Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

VAZ004-WVZ024-033-034-291815-
Buchanan-Wyoming-McDowell-Mingo-
146 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL BUCHANAN...
NORTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MINGO AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING
COUNTIES...

At 146 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Argo, or 14
miles north of Grundy, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hanover, R.d. Bailey Lake, Gilbert Creek, Gilbert, Iaeger and
Panther.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3754 8197 3753 8201 3755 8204 3753 8205
      3754 8205 3754 8206 3756 8208 3756 8210
      3762 8191 3758 8173 3745 8182 3743 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 249DEG 21KT 3748 8207

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

KYZ102-103-105-WVZ005-291845-
Boyd-Carter-Lawrence-Wayne-
151 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BOYD...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN CARTER AND WEST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 150 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Webbville, or 7
miles northwest of Blaine, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Yatesville Lake State Park, Fort Gay, Webbville, Durbin,
Centerville, Burnaugh, Houckville, Fallsburg and Buchanan.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3830 8257 3823 8245 3809 8253 3807 8294
      3809 8293 3810 8292 3810 8291 3812 8289
      3813 8291 3817 8292 3817 8297 3819 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 249DEG 27KT 3812 8291

08

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

WVZ014-015-292015-
Kanawha-Putnam-
333 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PUTNAM AND NORTHWESTERN
KANAWHA COUNTIES...

At 332 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hurricane, or 7
miles southwest of Nitro, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Nitro, Jefferson, South Charleston, St. Albans, Dunbar,
Hurricane, Sissonville, Poca, Cross Lanes, Pinch, Institute, Tornado,
Elkview and Teays Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 1 and 13.
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 101 and 117.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 39 and 57.
 Route 119 near mile marker 80.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3857 8165 3856 8163 3858 8158 3861 8152
      3857 8150 3855 8147 3855 8146 3838 8139
      3832 8189 3833 8192 3831 8194 3830 8201
      3842 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 251DEG 26KT 3837 8196

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

WVZ026-515-292015-
Northwest Raleigh-Boone-
351 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 351 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bald Knob, or
18 miles southeast of Madison, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bald Knob, Naoma, Dorothy, Stickney, Arnett and Artie.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3781 8164 3789 8167 3797 8143 3797 8139
      3798 8135 3795 8132 3794 8130 3789 8130
      3789 8127 3786 8126 3779 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 249DEG 33KT 3785 8161

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
407 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

WVZ013-015-292030-
Kanawha-Lincoln-
407 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL KANAWHA AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 406 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Julian, or 9 miles east of Hamlin, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
South Charleston, Alum Creek, Tornado, Griffithsville, Sweetland,
Sod and Yawkey.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 63 and 77.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3830 8205 3827 8199 3832 8192 3836 8169
      3822 8164 3823 8170 3822 8173 3821 8172
      3820 8174 3823 8178 3821 8179 3821 8181
      3819 8181 3821 8184 3819 8185 3817 8200
      3830 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 254DEG 33KT 3824 8193

HART