Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1123 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses overnight. High pressure Friday and
Saturday. Low pressure crosses Sunday/Sunday night, with a cold
front Monday morning. Cooler with weaker systems next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1120 PM Wednesday...

Tornado Watch 93 issued for all but the northern tier of the
forecast area, the northern extent of where the boundary
indicated by the west-northwest to east-southeast oriented line
of thunderstorms may get before the main line ahead of the cold
front arrives. Surface based CAPE and effective bulk shear
depict this most favored air mass for tornadic development
nicely, as do the upstream warnings.

Added severe weather wording to the forecast where the watch
is until its 08Z expiration overnight.

As of 825 PM Wednesday...

Used mostly the HRRR to time PoPs associated with a cold front
that will push through during the late overnight hours. The
timing for the strongest thunderstorms midnight to 4 AM west to
east, with a gradually weakening trend possible during that
time on loss of CAPE, which may start out over 2 KJ/kg into
southwest portions of the CWA, with elevated CAPE over 3 KJ/kg.
Bulk shear values in the 0-6 km layer are forecast to reach 50
to 60 kts giving rise to strong rotating elevated updrafts, with
large hail and damaging winds possible. The bulk shear will be
longer lived, so the wind threat is likely to outlive the hail
threat.

An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially as 0-1 km
bulk shear increases to 40 kts and the LCL decreases to less
than 1km immediately ahead of the cold front. Downward transfer
of 50 to 60 kts aloft may also lead to a surge of strong wind
gusts immediately behind the front.

As of 620 PM Wednesday...

The severe thunderstorms have weakened and moved south of the
CWA. Therefore, the remainder of SVR Watch 87 has been canceled.

As of 525 PM Wednesday...

Dropped portion of SVR Watch 87 behind southward moving line.
These leaves only SW VA in the Watch.

As of 204 PM Wednesday...

Latest radar mosaic shows a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the middle of our county
warning area. Mesoanalysis indicates these storms may be
associated with an outflow boundary from the earlier storms.

Per SPC discussion, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for portions of Northeast Kentucky, Southeast OH and Southwest
Virginia as well as the southern third of West Virginia until 8
PM.

Models indicate convection should wind down this evening with
a brief dry period.

A strong cold front is then expected to push southeast across
the region later tonight with the possibility of additional
strong and possibly severe storms.

The front should be southeast of the area by sunrise on
Thursday with high pressure building in. As a result,
precipitation chances will end from the northwest during the
day. Will keep chance pops in the northern mountains through the
evening hours as cold west-northwest flow prevails. Would not be
too surprised to see some snow across the highest elevations
late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Additional shortwave will cross the area Thursday night into
Friday, with another round of precipitation, and much colder
air. Light snow showers will be likely, particularly across the
higher terrain, where light accumulations will be possible. In
addition, gusty winds on Friday will make it feel like it's
winter again, with wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s.

High pressure will build in for Friday night into Saturday. With
a clearing sky and calm winds taking hold, widespread frost is
expected for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

After a brief break in the precipitation, rain, along with
warmer temperatures will return to the area for the start of the
long term period. Good southerly fetch of moisture will create a
good soaking rain for the area, but heaviest amounts look to lie
to the south and east of CWA. System will lift to the northeast
of the CWA at the start of next week, but mild, and somewhat
unsettled weather will continue to linger.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 825 PM Wednesday...

A front stretched west to east across southern Ohio and central
WV this evening, will move northward, as a warm front, ahead of
showers and thunderstorms, associated with a cold front,
approaching from the west. These showers and thunderstorms may
be quite strong as they cross the area overnight, before
weakening during the early morning hours, as they move through
with the cold front. One last line of showers may move through
after daybreak, before clearing takes place by afternoon, except
northeast portions of WV.

The best chance for the strongest thunderstorms will be HTS,
with decreasing strength to the north and east. The timing for
strong storms is 04Z-08Z from west to east, with diminishing
strength as the storms move east.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR as the thunderstorms move through,
and may even dip briefly to IFR early Thursday morning, before
mixing through and breaking out Thursday. Even in NE WV, CKB
and EKN, where ceilings may persist throughout the day, they
should lift above MVFR early Thursday afternoon.

MVFR visibility is likely in showers and thunderstorms
overnight, with brief IFR visibility in heavier thunderstorms.

Light north surface flow will shift to south as the front moves
north tonight. Strong wind gusts are possible in the
thunderstorms overnight, mainly from the west to northwest.
Gusty west to northwest winds will develop in the wake of the
cold front Thursday, with peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Light west
to northwest flow aloft this evening will become light to
moderate south to southwest tonight, and then strong west as
the cold front crosses overnight, and then moderate west first
thing Thursday morning, remaining so for the balance of the day
Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of storms and associated lower
conditions and wind could vary overnight. Gusty winds Thursday
will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 04/09/20
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms late
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1113 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>009-013>019-024>029-
033-034-515>522-100315-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-
Wood-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-
1113 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A much colder airmass will settle in for the end of the week. A
frost advisory or freeze warning may eventually be needed for Friday
night and early Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-076-WVZ010-011-020-030>032-039-040-100315-
Perry-Morgan-Washington-Pleasants-Tyler-Doddridge-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
1113 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east-central
Ohio, and portions of the northern lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

General thunderstorms are anticipated overnight with cold frontal
passage overnight. Isolated damaging wind gusts are a possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A much colder airmass will settle in for the end of the week. A
frost advisory or freeze warning may eventually be needed for Friday
night and early Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ523>526-100315-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
1113 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Randolph and Pocahontas
counties in northeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

General thunderstorms are anticipated overnight with cold frontal
passage early Thursday morning. Isolated damaging wind gusts are a
possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A much colder airmass will settle in for the end of the week. A light
coating of snow is expected, even a couple of inches over the highest
terrain, overnight Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EDT THU APR 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH SHORE             38.72N  82.96W
04/09/2020                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000818

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EDT THU APR 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSELL                 38.51N  82.70W
04/09/2020                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000819

TRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 AM EDT THU APR 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 38.61N  81.98W
04/09/2020  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000821

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 AM EDT THU APR 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     TSTM WND GST     BUFFALO                 38.61N  81.98W
04/09/2020  M58 MPH          PUTNAM             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER HAS ANEMOMETER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000822

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT THU APR 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HURRICANE               38.44N  82.02W
04/09/2020                   PUTNAM             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWING SET TOSSED INTO YARD FROM NEIGHBOR'S YARD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2000823

TRM