Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front approaches from north this evening, with showers and
storms, some strong to severe. Front lifts back to the north
Wednesday. Tropical remnants moisture Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...

Overall, minimal changes needed. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for portions of northern West Virginia and our
southeastern Ohio Counties. Already beginning to see a few cells
developing across these locations as instability increases and
subsidence behind the earlier departing wave decreases. May
eventually need a spatial extension of the watch further south
and east later this evening depending largely on degree of
upscale growth experienced.

As of 1120 AM Tuesday...

A leading shortwave responsible for showers and thunderstorms over
our northeastern counties this morning will continue to shift off to
the southeast through the remainder of the late morning and early
afternoon. Did add some additional isolated shower/TS mentions over
our southern mountains for early this afternoon with this feature.
Elsewhere, subsidence behind the departing trough will largely
suppress surface based convective activity through the early
afternoon until stronger forcing in the form a second mid-level wave
and attendant cold front late this afternoon into this evening.
Substantially increased late afternoon/evening PoPs over the morning
package with synoptic forcing, modest shear and forecast storm
motions that will struggle to get off the front indicating more
potential for multicellular clusters with at least some risk for
upscale growth into a solid line as it propagates south. The main
threats with this activity will be gusty to locally damaging winds
along the consolidated cold pool/gust front along with heavy rain,
although storm scale interaction could yield a few instances of
large hail or even a brief spin-up. Any severe threat quickly wanes
from north to south with the passage of the outflow reinforced front.

Also trimmed back high temperature for this afternoon with central
guidance running a bit too warm, with at least some insolation
limiting from the substantial haze/smoke layer aloft.

Westerly turning northwesterly winds aloft transport any remaining
convective debris out of the area heading into Wednesday morning.
With rainfall amounts of half to one inch with local amounts of 2+
possible with the afternoon activity, will likely see substantial
fog development heading into Wednesday morning.

Another ridge riding disturbance arrives late Wednesday afternoon,
but still questionable how much surface moisture will be around to
work with. This will largely be driven by rainfall this
afternoon/evening as well as how far south the convectively driven
frontal boundary can penetrate tonight. For now, have included only
isolated/sct mention of showers and storms, primarily over our
northeastern and mountain counties. Could see these increasing
with updates once confidence in placement of the effective warm
front increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

As Laura comes ashore and moves northward along the lower
Mississippi Valley, a preceding upper level trough axis oriented
west to east will move northward along the lower Mississippi
Valley, turn eastward in the westerlies aloft and push into the
middle Ohio Valley. This will mark the beginning of a much more
unsettled period that could pre soak the region before the
remaining tropical system heads our way. Showers and storms
likely Thursday and Thursday night as lower level moisture over
the region increases. This will be a critical time period in
terms of rainfall as the cumulative amounts over the short and
long term could go over three inches for large portions of the
CWA. Still need to allow for some uncertainty at this time given
the time period and some evolution/changes of future forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

The long terms models depict the remnants of Laura merging with
a trough aloft that will be pushing southward into the Great
Lakes along with an associated cold front. This amplification of
the waves aloft and advection of low level moisture combined
with the focusing mechanism of the front could create a heavy
rainfall potential in showers and storms, so this will need to
be watched carefully in the coming days with cumulative QPF
amounts on the higher side as they stand right now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
in advance of an approaching cold front through the remainder of
the afternoon hours, tracking south across all terminals through
the evening hours. The main threats with this line will be
locally gusty winds (likely from the north) preceding the line
along with heavy rain briefly reducing visibility to 1-2SM.

The line clears the region by 06Z and with at least partially
clearing skies will likely see fog development heading into
Wednesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Storm timing could vary by an hour. Fog
formation could be less than forecast if skies do not clear.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms and
early morning fog this week. More widespread IFR in showers and
thunderstorms possible late week and into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ004-WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526-261945-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, portions of southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Tropical will move over the area on Thursday and remain until
Saturday. Flash flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-261945-
Dickenson-
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Tropical will move over the area on Thursday and remain until
Saturday. Flash flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGTON              38.41N  82.43W
08/25/2020                   CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT IN THE BEVERLY HILLS
            NEIGHBORHOOD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM CALLER AND RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2001141

TRM