Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
238 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes back northward today. A cold front
stalls in the mountains Sunday night through Monday, and then
washes out, before a new one approaches Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through
much of the area ahead of a low pressure system that is off to
the west. Showers and storms will continue to develop throughout
the afternoon and evening with plenty of instability and
moisture present to fuel convection. Strong to severe storms
may develop with damaging winds as the main threat with these
storms, however, the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out. There is currently a slight risk for severe
weather over much of the area, with a marginal risk over the
remainder of the area in southeastern WV and southwest VA.
Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall could potentially lead
to localized water issues, especially in areas that received a
lot of rainfall with the previous system. There is also a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for southeast OH and northern
WV, and a marginal risk for much of the central/southern
portions of the area.

The warm front associated with this low will continue to push
off to the north/northeast. Showers and thunderstorms should
mostly taper off late this evening through tonight with a lack
of daytime heating, however a slight chance of precipitation
will continue to be possible tonight as the low itself moves
toward the northeast. The center of the low will likely stay off
to the north/northwest of the area as the associated cold front
approaches and passes through the area on Sunday. This will
lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along
the front, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours, with
the highest chances along the eastern portion of the area in the
mountains. There is currently a marginal risk for severe
weather and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over this
portion of the area for tomorrow.

Temperatures on Sunday should be at or just slightly above
normal with lower to mid 80s for the lowlands and lower 70s to
lower 80s for the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

A near conceptualized PRE setup along and east of the Blue
Ridge Sunday night and Monday will serve as the primary focus
for rain as Isaias traverses north along the FL coast. Rain
will develop along the low level theta e axis Sunday night which
is progged to be primarily east of our mountainous counties,
though with a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity, terrain
enhanced low level convergence should keep some showers along
our mountains.

The upper level trof axis slowly shifts east Monday across the
western OH Valley as upper level jet max develops along the
Appalachians. Meanwhile, Isaias will moving along the GA coast
with the low level theta e axis shifting further east. Still,
with the upper level jet over the mountains, I expect the PRE to
result in renewed rain during the day in the mountains,
accentuated by increasing south to southeasterly low level flow.
It should be noted that some model solutions keep the low level
theta e axis further west over our mountains which would enhance
the rain expected Monday. Rainfall amounts look to be tolerable
with the highest amounts just east of the mountains. Elsewhere,
the area may stay largely void of activity during the day with
the upper trof axis still west of the region.

The PRE setup begins to break down Monday night as Isaias closes
in on the Carolina Coast. We may see some evening showers/storms
across southeast OH before weakening overnight east of the OH
River as the trof tries to inch closer.

Isaias begins to pick up speed Tuesday as it feels the influence
of the trof. A s/w trof axis and weak surface low/front will
approach in the afternoon, coinciding with max insolation, for
scattered convection which will linger into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

Upper level trof will lift northeast Wednesday before another
s/w trof swings through late week. Primary focus for diurnal
convection Wednesday and Thursday will be tied to a lingering
inverted surface trof across the mountains and weak upper level
divergence. Thereafter, convection increases Friday with s/w
trof crossing, followed by weak high pressure Saturday.

Temperatures will remain seasonable, though highs could be a few
degrees below normal midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing and increasing in
coverage across the area, with chances continuing to increase into
the afternoon and evening. Sites are coded with VCTS, however it is
likely that showers or thunderstorms will occur at some, if not all,
sites throughout this afternoon and evening as the low pressure
system continues to approach the area. If a shower or storm
does move over a site, periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible. MVFR and VFR ceilings are currently present at the
sites, but MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR as the warm front
continues to push off to the north. However, ceilings may bounce
back down to MVFR for brief periods of time with these showers
and thunderstorms.

Storm activity should dissipate out late this evening, giving
way to VFR conditions for most sites tonight. It is possible
that fog or low stratus may form at some sites, most likely at EKN,
which may lead to IFR conditions. Ceilings should begin to fall
back down to MVFR for the more western sites in the morning as
the cold front associated with the low pressure system, which
will move off to the northeast, approaches the area.

Winds begin the period from the south/southwest at around
5-10KTs, with gusty winds possible with any thunderstorms that
may affect the sites. Winds should become mostly light and
variable tonight. Tomorrow will have southwesterly winds at
around 5-10KTs, with gusts up to 20KTs possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Timing and formation of
fog/low stratus may or may not occur tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
528 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
039-040-020930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
528 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Slight Risk of severe weather exists this afternoon and evening,
which means scattered severe storms are possible. Damaging winds,
some large hail, and an isolated tornado will all be possible in the
afternoon and evening. A few high water impacts may also occur with
the heavier storms. As a result, there is a Marginal to Slight risk
for excessive rainfall with the highest threat across southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515>526-020930-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
528 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Slight Risk of severe weather exists this afternoon and evening,
which means scattered severe storms are possible. Damaging winds,
some large hail, and an isolated tornado will all be possible in the
afternoon and evening. A few high water impacts may also occur with
the heavier storms. As a result, there is a Marginal to Slight risk
for excessive rainfall with the highest threat across southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and
evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce damaging winds and
there is a Marginal risk of severe weather in effect. The storms
could also produce locally heavy rainfall and the precipitation will
become more widespread during Sunday night with heavy rainfall
possible. As a result, there is a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall
in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.