Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front enhances the chance for strong, heavy showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday, before pushing through Thursday
night and Friday. Slightly drier weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

An upper level trough moving through the Ohio Valley region has
been pushing several waves of convection across the area today.
The first of these waves, has already exited to our east and
currently the second wave is approaching the western edge of the
CWA. This should bring another round of scattered showers and
storms into the area through the evening. A few of the stronger
storms may be accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts.

Moisture remains fairly high and precipitable water values are
in the 1.5-2" range. This indicates heavy rainfall may be
possible with any convection this afternoon/evening and along
the eastern half of the CWA there is a risk of excessive
rainfall.

On Thursday, the upper level trough will bring a front in to
the area bringing another opportunity for showers and storms to
develop during the day. These storms could bring more heavy
rains and a few storms could become severe. Convection should
begin to decrease during the evening as cooling begins.

During the day tomorrow, temperatures should reach highs in the
80s throughout the lowlands and upper 60s-70s in the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM Wednesday...

Surface front will continue to reside over the region through
the short term but it will become less well defined with upper
level ridging starting to build in from the west. The net result
will be a continuation of showers/storms but they will become
less numerous through time with a drier airmass trying to advect
in from the northwest by Friday afternoon and night.

Temperatures will remain very warm despite the attempt of an
airmass change with highs on Friday likely warming back into the
upper 80s to near 90 in the lowlands. Dewpoints will likely
lower into the mid 60s allowing for a relatively comfortable
night Friday night. In fact, Friday night looks like a good
night for dense fog development with temperatures falling
several degrees below river/lake temps after the recent warm
weather so decided to go ahead and add in some patchy dense fog
wording into the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 248 PM Wednesday...

High pressure appears poised to build into the region briefly
over the weekend. Still enough moisture hanging around with a
weakness in the ridge to our east so an isolated mountain
shower/storm will be possible each afternoon, but most locations
should remain dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be
forecast to rebound back into the 90s in the lowlands but
dewpoints stay in the 60s keeping afternoon heat indices
manageable.

Models are in good agreement in shunting the ridge back to our
west for early next week as another longwave trough digs into
the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will force another surface
front southward into the region renewing thunderstorms chances
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

Have seen a bit of a decrease in convection this afternoon,
but, by evening, another round of showers should move through
the area. For now, have coded VCTS into the TAFS though this may
need to be amended later on.

MVFR in the mountains should gradually improve over the next
couple of hours and VFR is generally expected to dominate the
TAF period. However, convection moving through the area could
briefly lead to degraded conditions.

Sustained winds should remain in the 5-10kt range though it is
possible for strong gusts to occur during storms this
afternoon/evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage/timing may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-231830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds would be the primary threat from any severe
thunderstorm. There is also a threat for excessive rainfall which
could lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds would be the primary threat from any severe
thunderstorm. There is also a threat for excessive rainfall which
could lead to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

ABE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>