Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Charleston, WV

771 
WWUS81 KRLX 192347
RFWRLX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-200100-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201120T0000Z/
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-
Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
647 PM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RH FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO...

Relative humidity is recovering and wind speeds will continue to
weaken. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to 
expire.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
847 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Elevated fire danger today under a warm, dry airmass. A front
meanders about the area heading into the weekend. A cold front
crossing Sunday night will tug temperatures back toward normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 AM Thursday...

The biggest forecast issue for today will be depth of mixing in
lieu of a strong low level inversion as surface high pressure
continues to drift to the southeast along the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Models are in excellent agreement limiting mixing across
our southeast Ohio Counties (where Red Flag criteria is most
easily met) to H925-H900. This would help hold down maximum
temperatures, curtail spreading out of surface moisture in a
depth limited column, and most important, limit transfer of much
higher momentum air near H850 to the surface via mixing.

Morning updates generally fall on the more pessimistic side of
guidance regarding potential fire weather impacts. With this, do
have some areas across southeast Ohio that could meet Red Flag
Warning criteria for an hour or two this afternoon with wind
gusts 15-20 mph, RHs 24-28% and 10hr stick moisture between 7
and 9%. After collaboration with land management agencies as
well as our neighboring forecast offices, will continue with an
enhanced fire danger SPS for now and continue to monitor trends
for a potential upgrade to a Red Flag Warning.

As of 630 AM Thursday...

Freshened up temperatures and dew points this morning.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

As of 315 AM Thursday...

At the time of writing, high pressure was centered at the heart
of the forecast area and will progress eastward throughout the
day. This dry airmass will inflict an elevation in fire danger
today due to low relative humidities and gusty winds developing
under a strong jet streak crossing through the Ohio Valley.
Surface winds out of the south/southwest will increase late this
morning into the afternoon, reaching sustained readings of 10
to 15 mph and gusts as high as 20 mph, especially in portions of
southeast Ohio. These conditions could then enable fires to
spread quickly upon initiation. Consensus among neighboring
offices was to currently hold off on issuing a red flag warning
with this forecast package and allow oncoming shifts to discuss
this threat with local fire officials. A Special Weather
Statement will hold until mid morning in the meantime.

Stabilizing RH values and weakening winds will allow for
conditions to improve by this evening. Quiet weather remains in
control through the remainder of the period with high pressure
still nestled nearby.

Warm advection under aforementioned southwest flow will take
place today, with temperatures running 20 degrees higher than
Wednesday's high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 AM Thursday...

Upper level short wave troughs scooting past to the north of
the forecast area gradually flatten an upper level ridge over
the southeast coast Friday through Saturday, and allow a surface
cold front to slip southward through the forecast area.

After a dry, warm start to the day Friday, clouds increase from
northwest to southeast late Friday through Saturday. Light rain
is possible on the north side of the front in a gently sloping
frontal zone, with the upper level just well to the north. Kept
PoPs low as some of the rain could be just drizzle given the
shallow moist layer below the frontal inversion.

The front starts to lift back northward, as a warm front,
Saturday night, as a more amplified short wave trough
approaching from the west backs the upper level flow. The chance
for light rain or drizzle shifts back northwestward through the
middle Ohio Valley as a result.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures amid a
developing baroclinic zone across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 440 AM Thursday...

An upper level short wave trough approaching near the end of the
short term pushes a surface low and cold front through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night, with showers likely at some
point, Sunday afternoon or night, as models differ on timing.
The front should push off to the east quickly enough for dry
weather to return on Monday.

In a zonal progressive pattern, high pressure of Pacific origin
crosses late Monday into Tuesday. The next short wave trough is
progged to split into northern and southern stream components,
the latter of which some models prog to close off as it crosses
midweek. The degree of closing off and timing depend upon how
the energy splits between the northern and southern streams, but
the system may be able gather enough gulf moisture for an
appreciable midweek rainfall. Pacific air will follow that
system as well.

After a mild Sunday, central guidance reflects near normal
temperatures by day and near to above normal at night. While
rain along with breezy conditions may impact Thanksgiving
travel, no wintry impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

VFR remains in command today with nearby high pressure keeping
our airspace clear and dry. Wind gusts will increase this
morning for most terminals, with wind gusts of 10 to 15 kts
possible. Winds settle down this evening, but a few TAF sites
could see a breeze from time to time overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible along the mountains Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP/MEK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
615 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>010-013>019-024>026-
201115-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Mingo-Logan-Boone-
615 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Low humidity and breezy conditions may lead to an enhanced fire
danger today. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the
mid to upper 20s this afternoon, with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph. If
this forecast holds, then a red flag warning may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ011-020-027>034-039-040-515>526-201115-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Tyler-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
615 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Low humidity and breezy conditions may lead to an enhanced fire
danger today. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the
lower to mid 30s this afternoon afternoon, with wind gusts of 10 to
15 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
852 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>010-013>019-
024>026-192300-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLATWOODS, RACELAND, RUSSELL, GRAYSON,
OLIVE HILL, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK,
ASHLAND, CANNONSBURG, LOUISA, YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK,
NEW LEXINGTON, CROOKSVILLE, SOMERSET, MCCONNELSVILLE, STOCKPORT,
ATHENS, MARIETTA, BELPRE, JACKSON, WELLSTON, OAK HILL, MCARTHUR,
HAMDEN, POMEROY, GALLIPOLIS, IRONTON, LAKE VESUVIUS, SOUTH POINT,
KENOVA, CEREDO, WAYNE, HUNTINGTON, POINT PLEASANT, NEW HAVEN,
RAVENSWOOD, RIPLEY, PARKERSBURG, VIENNA, ST. MARYS, BELMONT,
HARTS, ALUM CREEK, HAMLIN, TEAYS VALLEY, HURRICANE, CHARLESTON,
SOUTH CHARLESTON, SAINT ALBANS, SPENCER, ELIZABETH, GRANTSVILLE,
HARRISVILLE, PENNSBORO, WILLIAMSON, LOGAN, CHAPMANVILLE, MAN,
AND MADISON
852 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020

...Elevated Fire Weather Danger Possible Late This Morning
Through Early This Evening for the Middle Ohio Valley...

The combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds will
bring a heightened risk of wildfires today. Winds will increase
to 10 to 15 mph out of the south and southwest, with gusts around
20 mph, late ths morning through this afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values will bottom out in the mid 20 percent range this
afternoon. These conditions may enable fires to spread quickly.
Conditions will improve by late this afternoon into this evening,
as winds weaken and relative humidity values rise.