Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Charleston, WV

451 
WGUS71 KRLX 191300
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OHC167-191415-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200319T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-
900 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 900 AM EDT, Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain fell last night. 
This is causing flooding along the Little Muskingum River.

HAZARD...Flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bloomfield and Matamoras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you 
can do so safely.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 8104 3939 8129 3940 8138 3961 8128
      3961 8126 3958 8126 3957 8104

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

RPY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
532 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary waffles back and forth today, followed by a
cold front Friday. High pressure late Saturday/Saturday night.
Another system late Sunday/Monday, and again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...

At the time of this issuance, the bulk of the heavy rain in
accordance with a shortwave has departed to the east, leaving
behind one last sliver of showers pressing east of the Ohio
River. Observations upstream in Ohio depict surface winds
veering out of the northwest, insinuating this last line of
showers denotes the location of the slow moving frontal
boundary. The front is then progged to shift northward and stall
in close proximity to the forecast area today. Southwest flow
will remain in control, prompting another warmer than normal
afternoon in the 70s for majority of the CWA, aside from the
higher elevations.

POPs will taper off this morning, but the atmosphere will remain
juiced up for an additional round of heavy rain Thursday
evening. Low pressure emerging out of the Central Plains will
strengthen during the day today, with a tail of showers and
thunderstorms forming on the eastern extent of the disturbance. The
break from rain during the late morning/early afternoon will
help ramp up instability over the region in time for
precipitation to return once more into the Ohio River Valley
region. A few strong thunderstorms may arise in our southeast
Ohio Counties late into the overnight hours Thursday, where SPC
has painted a Marginal Risk for high winds.

While most of the heavy rain is projected to fall just west of
us, we could see an additional half an inch to three quarters
of an inch of rain over an already soaked area in southeast
Ohio. Rain that fell last night created a few flooded spots and
we could see a few more arise tonight with localized heavy rain
due to passing thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...

Widespread showers, some with heavy rain given pw values of 1.5
inches or better, scoot east across the area Friday, ahead of
an advancing cold front. This could pose a flood threat,
especially over the middle Ohio Valley, given antecedent
saturated and high stream flow conditions arising from rounds of
rainfall last night and, to some extent, late today and
tonight.

Friday afternoon, PW values decreases ahead of the cold front,
resulting in some clearing, which would in turn allow for
heating and increased instability. With strong shear, especially
deep layer shear, strong winds and hail are possible with
thunderstorms along and ahead of the advancing cold front, and
SPC has all but far southeastern portions of the forecast area
in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Rain slowly ends from northwest to southeast Friday night, as
the front pushes through, and upslope flow behind the front
allows showers linger in the mountains into early Saturday
morning. Clouds will linger much of the day Saturday, beneath a
stout post frontal inversion.

High pressure will bring some clearing from the north late
Saturday and Saturday night, only for clouds to increase again
on Sunday, ahead of another southern stream system ejecting out
of the U.S. southwest.

A warm end to the work week is followed by more seasonable
temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 530 AM Wednesday...

Active weather continues next week. A southern stream low
pressure system passes south of the area Sunday night into
Monday, with rain likely, at least south and east of the Ohio
River. Snow is possible in the mountains Sunday night into
Monday morning, given saturation into the ice crystal if not
dendritic growth region, and surface temperatures across the
higher terrain sufficiently low on the exiting chilly air mass
lingering there per cold air damming.

Even as the precipitation diminishes from west to east Monday,
clouds linger, and low clouds or fog are likely Monday night, in
a post rain light flow environment.

We may be able to sneak in a dry Tuesday, at least to start,
before yet another in a series of southern stream systems
ejecting out of the U.S. southwest, scoots through midweek.

Central guidance reflects a warming trend next week, after a
near normal start on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Radar depicts majority of the heavy rain has pushed
northeastward, leaving behind light showers for the next few
hours. OPted to cover the possibility of brief reductions due to
rain with tempo groups until around 09Z, then concluding precip
with -DZ at a few sites before sunrise. Ceilings collapse as the
night wears on with pockets of IFR or worse at most, if not all
terminals. Conditions gradually improve this afternoon amid
additional showers crossing through the region. The conclusion
of the period is expected to be widespread VFR, but lowering
ceilings loom to the north early Friday morning.

Low level wind shear still poses a concern early this morning as
a strong jet sits overhead. Continued the trend of coding up
LLWS at all terminals for the next several hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Varying ceiling restrictions from the
forecast is possible during the overnight hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 03/19/20
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-201015-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-
607 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers later today through tonight may be heavy. Stream rises
and high water are possible. There is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday may bring heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms Friday afternoon may also bring strong to isolated
damaging wind gusts. There is marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-519>526-201015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
607 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky and much
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday may bring heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening may also bring
strong to isolated damaging wind gusts. There is marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ033-034-515>518-201015-
McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
607 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast West
Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night may bring heavy
rainfall. Thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening may also
bring strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-201015-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
607 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night may bring heavy
rainfall. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening may also bring
strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-191100-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEW LEXINGTON, CROOKSVILLE, SOMERSET,
MCCONNELSVILLE, STOCKPORT, ATHENS, MARIETTA, BELPRE, JACKSON,
WELLSTON, OAK HILL, MCARTHUR, HAMDEN, POMEROY, GALLIPOLIS,
IRONTON, LAKE VESUVIUS, AND SOUTH POINT
1250 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Heavy rain across southeast Ohio last evening was causing stream
rises. Anywhere from three quarters to one and a quarter inches of
rain had fallen.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated
levels on small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on
country roads and farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. It is especially hard to tell the depth of the water at
night.

TRM