Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Charleston, WV

521 
WGUS71 KRLX 141937
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

WVC047-142115-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200614T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell WV-
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY...

At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. 
There were reports of landslides, heavy debris and water blocking 
route 16 in the Squire and Canebreak Mountain areas. The heaviest of 
the rain is over.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of South Central McDowell County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 8168 3727 8165 3728 8161 3725 8153
      3723 8154 3722 8157 3721 8161 3720 8167
      3722 8169 3723 8168

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

TRM

554 
WGUS71 KRLX 142112
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

WVC047-142122-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200614T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell WV-
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY...

The heaviest of the rain was over, and flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3724 8168 3727 8165 3728 8161 3725 8153
      3723 8154 3722 8157 3721 8161 3720 8167
      3722 8169 3723 8168

$$

TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1021 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low drifts southward through the middle Ohio
Valley today and the southern Appalachians Monday, before
wandering about the middle Atlantic states much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM Sunday...

Raise PoPs into the categorical range for much of the area east
iof the Ohio River this afternoon, mostly via latest hi res
guidance, as an upper level low settles into the middle Ohio
Valley. Updated QPF similar to previous, with locally heavy to
excessive rain possible. Lowered temperatures today per latest
guidance, amid the clouds and anticipated increase in
precipitation coverage.

As of 646 AM Sunday...

Precipitation ahead of the upper shortwave trough across
northern IN arrived slightly earlier than previous forecast, so
made some minor tweaks to PoPs to reflect latest radar trends.
Otherwise, forecast is on track.

As of 257 AM Sunday...

Latest water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave across
southern Lake Michigan and this feature will continue to move
southeastward towards the Ohio Valley this afternoon. As this
feature drops into the Ohio Valley today, it will become closed off
and continue to gradually drift southeastward across eastern
KY/southern WV towards the evening. As a result, an unsettled
and cool day is expected with many locations around 5-10 degrees
below normal. In addition, precipitation coverage will increase
through the afternoon as widely scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area with
the approach of the closed upper low and inverted surface trough
extending into the region. Models show CAPE values reaching the
1500-2000 J/kg range this afternoon, but shear values will be
weak so not expecting a big risk of severe thunderstorms.
However, freezing levels will be pretty low today around 10k ft,
so wouldn't be surprised to see small hail reaching the ground
with some of the stronger storms. That said, it is likely that
the greater hazard with today's precipitation activity will be
in the form of localized water issues given fairly slow storm
motions, PWATs as high as 1.3", and the potential for several
rounds of convection over the same areas. Thus, WPC has issued a
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across our CWA for today
and will need to monitor this closely as precipitation coverage
increases throughout the day.

By tonight, precipitation coverage should decrease somewhat across
the region as instability wanes. However, will still maintain
slight/chance PoPs overnight towards the end of the period as
the aforementioned closed mid-level low continues to meander
near the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

A cut off upper level low will meander around the central and
southern Appalachians for Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
Differ with the placement of the low, as well as the features
rotating around it. Since this affects sky cover, temperatures,
and chances of precipitation, confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

Models show an upper level low hanging around the region
through the end of the work week, before ejecting either Friday
or Friday night. Models differ on the placement of the upper
level low, causing confidence issues with the forecast. The GFS
keeps the upper low closer to our region than the European and
Canadian.

Even after the upper level low moves away from the area, enough
moisture remains for a chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 648 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to start the period as a few
isolated showers move northeastward across the region this
morning ahead of an upper level disturbance in northern IN. By
this afternoon, the upper disturbance will drop southward into
the Ohio Valley. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are
expected increase in coverage across the region this afternoon
and evening. While ceilings should generally remain VFR across
the area today, the convective activity expected today may
result in sudden vsby restrictions to MVFR or IFR conditions,
especially during heavier periods of rainfall.

By tonight, precipitation coverage should decrease somewhat as
instability weakens, but scattered rain showers will still be
possible overnight. In addition, MVFR/IFR conditions could
develop overnight as the aforementioned disturbance continues to
slowly approach the area and low levels of the atmosphere
moisten. This should result in areas of low stratus and/or mist
developing tonight, with perhaps a prolonger period of flight
restrictions through the remainder of the TAF cycle.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of shower and
thunderstorm development today could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms Monday
afternoon, and in overnight fog where the rain occurs.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/RG
NEAR TERM...TRM/RG
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
952 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

OHZ075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-
515>526-151400-
Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-
Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
952 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could lead to
locally excessive rainfall. As a result, there is is a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall in effect.

There is also a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening, with isolated instances of damaging
wind and hail of up to one inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-151400-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-
952 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky and
portions of east-central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could lead to
locally excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1215 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

VAZ003-141645-
Dickenson-
1215 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DICKENSON COUNTY...

At 1214 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Trammel, or 8
miles south of Clintwood, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trammel, Nora and McClure.

LAT...LON 3699 8240 3701 8244 3710 8248 3715 8228
      3702 8221 3701 8223 3698 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 256DEG 21KT 3703 8240

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1233 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

VAZ003-004-141715-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
1233 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DICKENSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 1233 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Davenport,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Dickenson and southwestern Buchanan Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3709 8225 3714 8228 3720 8215 3713 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 253DEG 11KT 3713 8224

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

WVZ033-141730-
McDowell-
100 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

At 100 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Amonate, or 9
miles northwest of Tazewell, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
McDowell County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3725 8166 3727 8150 3725 8150 3725 8151
      3723 8151 3722 8154 3721 8156 3720 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 265DEG 9KT 3723 8160

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

WVZ033-141900-
McDowell-
153 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL
COUNTY...

At 153 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Amonate, or 9
miles north of Tazewell, moving east at 10 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Cucumber.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3729 8168 3731 8150 3727 8145 3725 8148
      3725 8150 3726 8150 3725 8151 3723 8151
      3722 8154 3721 8156 3720 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 264DEG 10KT 3725 8157

30