Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
319 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure approaches from the west, while upper level
disturbances cross the area today. Low pressure crosses Friday.
Another low and cold front approach over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 318 PM Thursday...

Expanded the Flash Flood Watch farther to the northeast to
account for ongoing heavy rainfall, along with expected
additional rainfall overnight.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

A low pressure system moves in from the west/southwest. Showers
and thunderstorms are currently occurring over the area and will
persist through the period. Rainfall is the largest threat with
this system, and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued through
tomorrow morning as models indicate plenty of moisture and lift
to keep these showers going as the low moves through. Rainfall
amounts up to 2 inches is possible for much of the area,
potentially exceeding 2 1/2 inches at some locations. Isolated
higher amounts will also be possible in storms with heavy
downpours. The northwestern portion of the area will likely
have the least amount of rainfall for the area with rainfall
amounts around 0.5-1 inches. Low lying areas and areas
particularly vulnerable to water issues may experience flooding
as this system continues to move through.

Low stratus and/or fog will be possible tonight as these
showers persist, and may linger through much of the morning on
Friday. The surface low moves through the area on Friday with
an associated front lingering along the southeastern portion of
the region. This will allow chances of precipitation to remain
mostly along the southeast Friday night, however widespread
chances will still be possible through the remainder of the
area.

Temperatures on Friday will be on the cooler side, just below
normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
lowlands and in the upper 60s to upper 70s for the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM Thursday...

Longwave trough remains situated to our west over the weekend
with deep southwest flow aloft. At the surface a wavy front
will lift north over time as a surface low tracks to our
northwest. The net result will be a rather unsettled day on
Saturday with numerous showers/thunderstorms developing by
afternoon. PWATs remain high so the threat for locally heavy
rainfall will persist. The front then lifts northward on Sunday
as does the deeper moisture, so less overall coverage of
showers/storms is expected with the greatest PoPs over the
mountains. It will remain warm and muggy with dewpoints
remaining around 70 throughout the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 312 PM Thursday...

Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week with
the potential of Isaias recurving up the East Coast. Models are
rather consistent in keeping a trough aloft over our region
which should keep a daily threat for showers/storms in our
forecast. Heavier rains are possible should Isaias track close
or over our region, but plenty of time to monitor that. It does
appear that our temps will cool to more normal levels for early
August, perhaps even coming in a tad bit cooler than normal by
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

A low pressure system is approaching from the southwest,
bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
All sites are coded with VCTS, and thunderstorms may occur at
some sites as this system moves in. Some last minute amendments
may be necessary if thunderstorms do approach the sites, but
will keep a watch on the ongoing conditions. Gusty winds could
occur with these storms, as well as heavy downpours which could
lead to brief dips to IFR conditions at some sites. MVFR
conditions will also be possible in ceilings and visibilities in
rain through much of the period.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through most of
the period. Low stratus or fog may form tonight leading to IFR
conditions in ceilings and possibly in visibilities. These
conditions will likely hold through the morning hours tomorrow,
improving to MVFR conditions around 14/15Z.

Winds should be relatively light and variable for most of the
period, with brief periods of stronger winds possible in storms.
Winds should become mostly calm tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and storms could vary this afternoon and tonight. Intensity of
fog may vary overnight tonight into Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>008-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/CG
NEAR TERM...RH/CG
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-
040-515>526-311930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-
Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-
Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will remain possible
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-311930-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight. A prolonged heavy
downpour could cause localized minor flood issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will remain possible
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SSE CEDAR CREEK STATE 38.80N 80.79W
07/30/2020                   BRAXTON            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOMS RUN FLOODING SOUTH OF CEDARVILLE. WATER
            SURROUNDING HOMES.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
540 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW BUCKHANNON        39.00N 80.26W
07/30/2020                   UPSHUR             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RUNOFF INTO FINKS RUN FLOODED A FEW
            PROPERTIES.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW GRANTSVILLE       38.91N 81.10W
07/30/2020                   CALHOUN            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHILIP RUN EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
            FLOODING. WATER INTO HOMES AND OTHER
            PROPERTY BUILDINGS. PICTURES PROVIDED SHOW
            VERY FAST MOVING WATER.

&&

HART

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