Lake Wind Advisory 39, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
251 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Today will be more typical of early summer with warm temperatures
and afternoon breezes. A cold front is expected for the end of
the week with strong gusty winds and increased fire danger on
Friday. A few showers and cooler temperatures are likely for the
weekend. Temperatures then warm to near seasonal levels next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Unsettled spring weather continues as we head into the middle of
June. For today, temperatures warm a few more degrees over
Wednesday afternoon with mid-upper 70s Sierra valleys and mid
80s-lower 90s across warmer lower valleys. This will allow for a
more typical afternoon and evening zephyr to develop with gusts
25-30 mph.

A dynamic trough will swing into the West Coast tonight and move
across CA/NV Friday-Saturday. Winds aloft increase tonight as the
north-south oriented upper jet translates eastward into the
Sierra. As such, ridge winds will become strong and gusty (Sierra
ridges approaching if not exceeding 70 mph at times). Strong gusty
winds will then follow for lower elevations Friday/Friday night
as mixing and surface gradients tighten in response to deepening
low pressure across central NV. Latest NAEFS 700 MB wind speed
return intervals show the best reflection of strongest winds
across central NV, ahead of the main surface front which will
have worked through much of western NV during the morning/early
afternoon. So winds will likely be dominated by gradients for the
eastern Sierra and western NV where stout sustained westerly
winds 25-35 mph will prevail with the gusts more tempered in the
40-45 mph range. Lake waters will be quite rough with the strong
winds impacting those driving high-profile vehicles or flying in
and out of the region. Areas of blowing dust will also reduce
visibility below one mile at times across western NV.

Isolated-scattered showers will accompany the low with the best
chances Friday night into Saturday morning. The current track
places northeast CA and northwest NV in the most favored area for
measurable precipitation as well as isolated thunderstorms. While
instability will be limited farther south, dynamics along the mid
level front late Friday night could fire off isolated thunderstorms
in the Basin and Range. Temperatures will be much cooler Friday-
Saturday with a light freeze possible in rural valleys by Sunday
morning as skies clear and winds decrease. Hohmann

.LONG TERM...Sunday and beyond...

Flat ridging builds over the area with a warming and drying trend
Sunday and into next week. Temperatures will bounce back into the
80s for western Nevada by Monday, with 70s in the Sierra. Another
trough starts to dig into the Pacific Northwest around Tue-Wed,
bringing increased winds once again to the region. There is some
uncertainty in how far south the trough digs and how windy we will
get. The GFS seems to be the most aggressive diving the trough into
CA/NV, but our forecast will continue to follow the ensembles and
National Blend of Models, showing warmer temperatures and less wind
overall. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon and evening zephyr winds are expected again for today,
slightly stronger than yesterday with gusts up to 20-25kts. As low
pressure moves into the West Coast Friday, winds will increase
across the region with gusts up to 30-40kts areawide. Expect impacts
to aviation, including mountain turbulence, periodic low-level wind
shear, and blowing dust off of the Nevada deserts and sinks. This
will also bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region
Friday into Saturday. -Hoon

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

***Fire Weather Watches In Effect Friday For Gusty Winds***

Zephyr breezes will create westerly winds this afternoon and evening
but gusts should be mostly below 30 mph. Some wind prone locations
may reach critical conditions with relative humidities in the teens
or single digits.

Fire weather watches remain in effect for Friday morning through
Friday evening for portions of western Nevada and the eastern Sierra
for strong gusty winds and low humidity. As a cold front crosses the
area Friday, humidities may rise above critical levels in the Sierra
and along the Sierra Front. However, despite the rising humidity,
strong winds gusts over 45 mph may still be capable of spreading
fire in these zones. A bigger concern is for the western and west-
central Nevada Basin and Range zones that will still see warm
temperatures, low humidity around 8-15%, and a long duration of very
strong winds Friday. JCM/Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     NVZ420-421-423-429.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     CAZ274.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     CAZ073.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno