High Wind Watch 6, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will rise to above average today through Tuesday.
There will be a pause in storm activity before the next storm
system moves in Tuesday. That system will bring another round of
stronger winds Tuesday along with chances for rain and higher
elevation snow Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will fall
closer to average for the middle to latter portion of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

More showers will be possible towards the Oregon border today as
high pressure begins to build over the region. Otherwise, high
pressure will strengthen tonight and Monday ahead of the next
system that continues to be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expect temperatures to warm from around seasonal averages today to
5-10 degrees above average by Monday afternoon.

While forecast changes were minimal, models have increased 700 mb
jet related winds with the approaching wave for Tuesday. As such,
surface speeds were marginally nudged up Tuesday, and this system
is shaping up to be nearly as windy as the past one. Expect
similar impacts: LLWS and strong turbulence for aviation,
hazardous lake conditions, strong crosswinds along north-to-south
routes that could be a danger to high profile vehicles, and
damaging winds for fences and trees. Preliminary estimates for
gusts are running 45-60 mph along the Sierra Front, but could be
higher for the foothills where downsloping would be a greater
factor.

One key difference between this system and the last will be the
amount of moisture associated with this storm; which has been
increased by a further 0.25" for the Sierra this forecast cycle.
System trajectory promotes a maxima of precipitation along the
Sierra crest from around Portola to the Alpine/Mono County line.
With winds as strong as currently projected, eastern Plumas,
Sierra, Nevada Counties, and the Tahoe Basin could pick up an
inch or slightly more of liquid equivalent which would be very
useful in curbing any lingering concerns for dry conditions of
timber.

Snow levels will not be very low, generally dropping to around
7000 feet Tuesday before decreasing behind the precipitation late
Wednesday. This will put mountain passes in play for significant
snow accumulation. Current QPF amounts correlate to around 12
inches above 7000-7500 feet with highest peaks nearly 18 inches
over two days. Expect periods of difficult travel conditions over
the higher portions of the Sierra. Current estimates for heaviest
precipitation rates are Tuesday afternoon/evening as the 130+kt
jet maximum becomes transverse to the Sierra. This core of
stronger jet winds will begin to stall over northern Mono County
resulting in less of a push for moisture over southern Mono
County.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday onward...

Rain and high elevations snow showers will be ongoing Wednesday and
then are forecast to taper Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper
jet shifts east and drier air aloft works into the region. Snow
levels are still projected to remain above 6000 feet, so any slushy
accumulations that might impact travel would occur at the higher
passes Wednesday morning, especially Carson Pass and Mt Rose Summit.
Total QPF for the midweek storm is still projected to be 0.5-1.75"
along the Sierra with 0.15-0.40" amounts for northeast CA and far
western NV along the Highway 395 corridor. Farther east into the
Basin and Range, amounts are going to be much lighter and less
than 0.10" for the most part. It will remain brisk Wednesday with
temperatures closer to normal mid 40s Sierra to mid 50s across
lower elevations.

For Thursday into Saturday, our area will generally see dry
conditions with light winds and periods of cloud cover as a weak
trough moves across the region Thursday-Friday followed by a
shortwave ridge Saturday. Temperatures will remain seasonally cool.
Unsettled weather is expected to return next week and into the last
half of November with another potential upper trough around the
23rd. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

The storm track will be mostly north of the region through Monday
with areas of light precipitation and higher terrain obscuration
brushing northeast CA and northwest NV today. Elsewhere, it will be
dry although there will be mid and high clouds. Winds over the
ridges will remain a bit elevated through Sunday as flow aloft
remains zonal. Gusts are expected to be in the 30-45 kt range which
could result in some turbulence over and east of the Sierra.

Sunday night into Monday will be the best days for flying before
strong winds, rain/mountain snow, and more extensive terrain
obscuration return Tue-Wed. -Snyder/Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno