Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
749 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift into central NC this afternoon and
evening, before stalling tonight. The front will remain over the
region into Saturday before slowly dissipating late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 405 PM Thursday...

A mid and upper level trough continues to move east across the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
stretches from central VA into the Western Piedmont of NC. Ahead of
the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
developing across the region, with the exception of the NW Piedmont.
With sufficient instability (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg) and moisture (PW in
excess of 2 inches), expect this continue through the rest of the
afternoon into the early evening hours. SPC mesoanalysis also shows
better effective shear compared to yesterday (30-35 kts), so the
severe threat is higher, and the SPC has placed the entire region in
a marginal risk for severe storms through the evening. The main
threat with the storms will be damaging winds. Later this evening
into the overnight hours, while convection should dissipate to the
south and east, a line of convection associated with the frontal
boundary currently over western NC looks to move into the NW
Piedmont, weakening as it moves through the rest of central NC.
Isolated flash flooding is possible with any slow-moving and/or
training storms through tonight, and the WPC has placed portions of
the far northern Piedmont in a slight risk for excessive rainfall,
with a marginal risk elsewhere in central NC. More low stratus and
fog will also be possible across the region early tomorrow morning,
especially in the Triad. Lows tonight will again be in the upper-60s
to lower-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

A positive tilt, weakening mid level trough, characterized by weakly
rising heights within the trough base, will extend from the lwr
Great Lakes swwd into the OH Valley at 12Z Fri, then drift ewd
across the Northeast, middle Atlantic, and cntl Appalachians through
12Z Sat. Weak 500 mb height falls (10-20 meter) will precede the
trough along and offshore the nrn middle Atlantic and srn New
England coast, with only glancing/peripheral influence over cntl NC.

At the surface, A weak front/aggregate outflow boundary from
convection forecast to settle sewd into cntl NC tonight will likely
stall as parent convection dissipates over the Piedmont through Fri
morning. That feature, along with both a lee trough to the west and
the sea breeze to the southeast will serve as initial foci for
convective initiation through midday-early afternoon Fri. Multi-cell
outflow propagation, amidst modest swly flow around 20-25 kts as in
previous days, will continue through early Fri night, supported
weakly by the passing mid level trough.

Another day of mostly mid upr 80s will be followed by near climo low
temperatures around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

Generally weak wnw flow aloft will prevail through early to mid next
week, as a shear axis/weakness and relative minimum in mid level
heights develops over the Southeast, between a pair of subtropical
ridges forecast to extend across the srn Rockies/srn Plains and cntl
N. Atlantic, respectively.

At the surface, a weakening front will dissolve into a remnant lee
trough over the srn middle Atlantic Foothills and Piedmont through
Sat, where the trough will linger through next week in typical
summertime fashion on the wrn periphery of Bermuda high pressure.

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature temperatures mostly in the upr 80s, to around 90 at FAY Sat,
heating slightly to around 90 or so through early to mid next week.
Mainly diurnal convection will then focus along the lee trough and
sea breeze each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Showers and thunderstorms persist along a
stalled surface boundary and will continue through this evening and
into the overnight hours, possibly shifting slightly southeastward.
KINT and KGSO are most likely to be impacted by the storms. Reduced
cigs and visbys and strong gusty winds are possible with the storms.
While VFR conditions will continue this evening (in the absence of
convection), expect fog/low-stratus to develop across central NC
once again, mainly from 08Z to 15Z Friday. Winds will otherwise be
calm to light through tonight. Expect improvement through the
morning hours and into the early afternoon before more showers and
thunderstorms develop during the aft/eve (best chances at KFAY and
KRWI).

Looking ahead: Expect diurnally driven aft/eve convection through
the extended period, along with the chance for pre-dawn/early
morning fog/low-stratus. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-070930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
525 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy dense fog this morning will create visibility of 1/2 mile or
less at times.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, some
of which could be severe and generate heavy rain. Damaging wind
gusts and isolated flash flooding are possible near storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
748 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-070045-
Guilford NC-Stanly NC-Forsyth NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
748 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN FORSYTH...
DAVIDSON...RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN STANLY AND SOUTHERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Winston-Salem to near
Granite Quarry. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Asheboro, Lexington,
Randleman, North Carolina Zoo, Badin Lake, Thomasville and
Kernersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8019 3605 7954 3554 7955 3551 7957
      3550 8018 3549 8018 3547 8016 3546 8011
      3541 8009 3550 8030 3551 8019 3558 8021
      3568 8033 3572 8033 3573 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 291DEG 32KT 3614 8018 3565 8044

23

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
831 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE CLEMMONS          36.03N 80.38W
08/06/2020                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD FLOODED NEAR THE 2500 BLOCK OF
            LEWISVILLE CLEMMONS ROAD.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
832 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E WINSTON-SALEM       36.11N 80.22W
08/06/2020                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD FLOODED NEAR THE 2500 BLOCK OF NEW
            WALKERTOWN ROAD.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ022-023-038>040-073-074-070200-
Guilford NC-Stanly NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
Montgomery NC-
855 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALAMANCE...SOUTHEASTERN
DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN
STANLY...EASTERN GUILFORD AND NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM EDT...

At 855 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles south of Monroeton
to 11 miles northeast of Badin Lake to 6 miles southeast of Rockwell.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Asheboro, Albemarle, Graham,
Randleman, Siler City, Badin Lake and North Carolina Zoo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8019 3552 8018 3555 8021
      3557 8021 3561 8011 3621 7981 3617 7926
      3560 7949 3551 7969 3551 7977 3548 7977
      3538 7999 3541 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 271DEG 18KT 3618 7975 3561 8002 3547 8036

23