Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level high pressure over the area will weaken through Friday.
This will allow a weak cold front to move into NC from VA tonight,
then stall over eastern NC on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...

...A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Sandhills, Coastal
Plain and eastern portions of the Piedmont through 900 PM...

...Strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with isolated
severe thunderstorms possible...

A couple of concerns for the late afternoon and evening.

Several pulse severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued thus
far. Some damaging wind potential in the collapsing intense cores
thus far and this will continue through early evening. MLCapes of
2000-2500 j/kg along with outflow boundaries will continue to
support new storms. Cooling temperatures into the mid 70s will
happen with the lucky areas to get rain.

Outside of thunderstorm areas and the cloudiness and rain, the heat
will continue to pose a significant hazard for those that have to be
outside. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s in the
Advisory area, with near 90 in the NW Piedmont. Heat indices will
top out around 105 in the Advisory area, with upper 90s in the NW.

The thunderstorms are expected to diminish late this evening and
overnight to areas of showers between 06z and 12z. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s north-central into the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...

...Showers and thunderstorms Friday will knock back the heat...

...Isolated severe storms possible again in the east and south...

The heat will not be as oppressive Friday as the shortwave trough
aloft tracks over the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front
will be a weak front, but this still does the trick to produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms again Friday into Friday
evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Friday morning, but the higher POP will come with heating
out ahead of the front that will be SW-NE across central NC. The
exact position of the front along with the amount of cloudiness will
determine where the storms develop as MLCapes will again top out in
the 2000 j/kg in areas that heat up by noon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop in the favored areas near the front by
late morning, then spread/develop ESE across the region. The eastern
Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain will be favored for isolated
pulse severe storms again, with the main threat from damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph.

The heat indices will be beat down by the increased storminess and
cloudiness. Actual highs will be in the mid to upper 80s NW and
north-central with lower 90s SE. Thus, no need for Heat Advisories
for the first time in a while.

PW's will still be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, with locally heavy
rain still likely due to the deep moisture and relatively slow storm
movement and expected mergers along the front in the east.

Scattered showers and storms will diminish on Friday night. Lows in
the 65-69 range north into the lower 70s south and east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 PM Thursday...

A disturbance aloft will result in continued showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, especially to the SE
where moisture will be highest. Have continued likely POPs from the
Triangle south and east with high chance POPs elsewhere. An upper-
level ridge will build over the Southeast US on Sunday and Monday,
resulting in drier conditions, with only low chance POPs on Sunday
and slight chance POPs or less on Monday (highest south). An
increasing chance of showers and storms will commence once again on
Tuesday as an upper trough and cold front approach the area from the
NW. Wednesday looks to have an even better chance of showers and
storms as the front gets closer, and this may continue into
Thursday. However, a lot depends on the exact placement of the front
and how far south it is able to get, which is still uncertain at
this time. The GFS keeps the front hung up to the north, resulting
in higher POPs on Thursday compared to the ECMWF which has the front
clearing the area Wednesday night.

Hot and humid weather will continue through the period. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the low-90s, slightly above
normal, and dew points will still be in the low-to-mid 70s. However,
heat indices this weekend will at least be a bit less oppressive
than what they have been recently, and no Heat Advisory is
anticipated. The hottest days will be Monday and Tuesday with highs
in the mid-to-upper 90s. Temperatures should then drop to near-
normal by Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front approaches and
cloud cover increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered thunderstorms will bring chances of
MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS through this evening. Otherwise, outside
of storms expect generally MVFR to VFR CIGS and VSBYS with some
light showers.

Looking ahead: Expect mainly diurnally driven aft/eve convection each
day through the extended period. Some pre-dawn/early morning fog/low-
stratus will be increasingly possible with better convective
coverage the preceding evenings. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 900 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011-026>028-
041>043-077-078-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Badgett/KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-242045-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-
Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A few thunderstorms may approach severe limits, with damaging wind
gusts to near 60 mph the main threat. In addition, very heavy rain
and slow moving storms may produce localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few thunderstorms may become severe with damaging wind the main
threat. Heavy rain may also produce localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-242045-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms may approach severe limits, with damaging wind
gusts to near 60 mph the main threat. In addition, locally heavy rain
of 2+ inches in 45 minutes to an hour may produce flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few thunderstorms may become severe with damaging wind the main
threat. Heavy rain may also produce localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLESEX               35.79N 78.20W
07/23/2020                   NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT EXUM
            AND OAK ST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
420 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW DORTCHES          36.02N 77.88W
07/23/2020                   NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT DORTCHES RD AND RED OAK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
421 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WINSTON-SALEM       36.09N 80.27W
07/23/2020                   FORSYTH            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN, INCLUDING ONE ON A
            HOUSE IN WINSTON-SALEM ON QUEEN STREET. TIME
            ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 2PM TO 245PM.

&&

CC

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