Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper low responsible for the cold, wet, and cloudy weather this
past week will finally move offshore tonight. This should bring a
reduced chance for showers and warmer temperatures over the next few
days until a cold front arrives Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

So far this afternoon the bulk of showers/storms have moved north-
northwest to south-southeast from WV and VA into west-central North
Carolina. Precipitation coverage will probably be slightly less than
yesterday. However, overall conditions will be similar - modest
instability, high precipitable water values and nearly zero flow
vertically in the atmosphere. The threat for severe weather appears
to be limited to locations south and east of Raleigh, but any
location that has a slow moving shower/storm develop could have
localized flooding due to slow storm movement, especially in
locations that received rain yesterday. However, confidence is not
high enough that showers/storms will develop in any given location
to issue a flash flood watch.

Once again, precipitation should diminish shortly after sunset. Lows
will drop into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Saturday...

With an upper low finally moving east of the region tonight, there
will be little in the way of a forcing mechanism for showers/storms
tomorrow, especially with shortwave ridging building into the
region. Still have slight chance pops west of Raleigh and chance
pops east of Raleigh, but similar to today, coverage should continue
to decrease from day to day. The upper ridging will lead to about a
5 degree increase in highs, with most locations finally reaching
normal high temperatures for the first time in about a week. Another
partly cloudy night is expected with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 139 PM Saturday...

Short wave ridging centered along the SE coastline should result in
below climo PoPs on Monday.  With ample sunshine and H8 temps
several deg C above normal, Monday afternoon will be hot with highs
climbing into the lower 90s.

The period Tuesday through Thursday night will feature a closed low
crossing the northern Great Lakes region.  Our area will be on the
southern extent of the trough, and in addition, an assoc sfc cold
front will approach during the mid-week period and stall out across
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the latter half of the week.
As such, look for climo or above climo PoPs (mainly afternoon and
evening) during this time. It won't be a washout during this time...
instead mainly scattered diurnal coverage.  There won't be much
airmass change during this time, so the temps will mainly be a
factor of cloud and rain coverage and thus remain closer to normal.

During the day Friday, mid/upr flow will become more westerly, thus
look for a modest drying trend, and PoPs returning to below-climo
for the rest of the long term period, with near to slightly above
normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Another June day, another day with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With a clusters of showers and thunderstorms already
present near INT/GSO, have gone with prevailing thunderstorms for
the first two hours of the TAFs. Elsewhere, think that scattered
thunderstorms will not get going until later in the afternoon, and
have generally gone with 20Z as a start time. Naturally,
restrictions will be possible in any showers/storms that move over
terminals. Confidence is lacking in the overall coverage of morning
fog - included a tempo group at INT/GSO where confidence is highest
in low level moisture and light winds allowing fog formation, as
well as RWI. However, all of this will be dependent on where
showers/storms do in fact form.

Outlook: Thunderstorm coverage will be more isolated through the
outlook period, although coverage will be greater on Wednesday with
a cold front. Additional restrictions will be possible with sunrise
fog/stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Locally heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms is possible again
this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding is possible
through the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No widespread hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1256 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ021-201800-
Forsyth NC-
1256 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FORSYTH COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Enon, or near East Bend, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Lewisville, Pfafftown, Donnaha,
Sedge Garden and Stanleyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045 3622 8043
      3624 8045 3626 8045 3626 8035 3604 8008
      3602 8011 3603 8021 3600 8022 3600 8032
      3597 8040 3599 8042 3601 8042 3606 8046
      3606 8048 3605 8048 3610 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 321DEG 16KT 3619 8044

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ022-201900-
Guilford NC-
205 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GUILFORD COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroeton, or 10 miles northeast of Greensboro, moving southeast at
20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, McLeansville, Gibsonville, Lake Guilford Mackintosh
Marina, Forest Oaks, Lake Townsend Marina, Lake Townsend, Lake
Jeanette Marina, Monticello and Haw River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7961 3618 7953 3601 7954 3591 7970
      3622 7987 3625 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 331DEG 18KT 3621 7974

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
208 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ021-038-201915-
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
208 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FORSYTH AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Winston-Salem to near
Lexington. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Lexington, Thomasville, Kernersville, Clemmons,
Linwood, Walkertown, Rural Hall, Pfafftown and Gordontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8044 3583 8043 3585 8042 3584 8040
      3585 8039 3586 8039 3588 8042 3589 8041
      3589 8037 3596 8038 3597 8040 3626 8030
      3614 8004 3565 8006 3579 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 331DEG 19KT 3609 8026 3585 8032

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ023-040-076-201945-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALAMANCE...NORTHERN LEE
AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Camp Springs to 8
miles northwest of Siler City to near Pittsboro. Movement was east at
25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Pittsboro, Siler City, Mebane, Goldston, Elon,
Gibsonville, Haw River and Swepsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Don't wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well
ahead of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and
wind. Make sure that lightning is well away from your location
before resuming outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7926 3588 7926 3586 7902 3572 7895
      3561 7899 3558 7892 3554 7895 3553 7953
      3559 7955 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 249DEG 23KT 3633 7947 3582 7955 3568 7922

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
356 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ023-024-040-202100-
Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Orange NC-
356 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ALAMANCE...
ORANGE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Graham to near Siler
City. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Pittsboro, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston,
Swepsonville, Crosswinds Boating Center, Efland and Crosswinds
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts of this
magnitude are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 7911 3612 7897 3586 7902 3587 7891
      3584 7891 3561 7899 3560 7897 3559 7905
      3561 7908 3563 7912 3562 7914 3559 7917
      3560 7945 3616 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 285DEG 15KT 3602 7935 3571 7939

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NCZ077-086-088-202100-
Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT...
CUMBERLAND AND NORTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Pope
AFB to 9 miles north of Rex. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Raeford, Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Hope Mills, Spring Lake,
Eastover, Stedman, Wade and Vander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 7892 3492 7896 3495 7903 3498 7928
      3518 7917 3517 7913 3517 7910 3519 7910
      3521 7915 3524 7916 3525 7919 3529 7920
      3530 7919 3526 7876 3485 7861 3485 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 285DEG 11KT 3522 7914 3499 7905

Green