Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Raleigh, NC

008 
WWUS52 KRAH 302106
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
506 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCC101-191-302115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-200630T2115Z/
Wayne NC-Johnston NC-
506 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Goldsboro,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Mar-Mac, Brogden, Elroy,
Grantham and Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 7783 3520 7803 3519 7804 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3521 7817 3522 7822 3538 7828
      3549 7802 3530 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 332DEG 25KT 3530 7806 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JD

749 
WWUS52 KRAH 302115
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
515 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCC101-191-302124-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-200630T2115Z/
Wayne NC-Johnston NC-
515 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3527 7783 3520 7803 3519 7804 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3521 7817 3522 7822 3538 7828
      3549 7802 3530 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 332DEG 25KT 3524 7802 

$$

JD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will track southeastward over North
Carolina this evening. A weak surface trough will remain in place
over central North Carolina this afternoon and tonight, then
drift into the Coastal Plain Wednesday. Drier conditions with
higher pressure will arrive Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...

A few pulse severe storms are possible, mainly along the NW to SE
corridor from Burlington to the Triangle to Rocky Mount south and
east to Fayetteville and Goldsboro through mid-evening. Isolated
strong storms are possible throughout central NC.

A belt of mid and high level cloudiness has been extensive from the
southern Appalachians ESE across the western Piedmont of NC this
into the afternoon now. This band of cloudiness has been thinning
somewhat since early afternoon, but was remaining in place. This has
greatly limited instability and convection over the southwestern
Piedmont into the Triad region thus far.

The storms over the Blue Ridge Foothills of VA and northwest NC are
building south and southwest toward the most unstable air. This
would put this development on the west side of the Yadkin River
(west of the Triad region through late day).

Robust scattered thunderstorms were developing along the surface
trough located over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. This
region has heated nicely into the mid to upper 80s, with dew points
in the lower to mid 70s. Corresponding MLCapes were on the
order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg in a tongue from FAY to RDU to near RWI.
There was fairly good ThetaE advection with surface moisture
convergence along the residual and new outflow boundaries. A few of
these storms may pulse to low end severe limits (near 60 mph wind
gusts and 1 inch hail potential) through early evening as they
work on outflow boundaries.

The other threat will be locally heavy rain as the PW's have come up
into the 1.7-2.0 inch range with a weak steering flow. Therefore,
locally heavy rain of 2+ inches per hour will occur. Most areas
should see the heaviest rain fall in 20 to 30 minutes limiting the
flood threat to minor.

The severe threat continues to be marginal limited by weak winds
aloft. Therefore, a few pulse severe storms are possible that
are typical of late June in NC. The storms will weaken and become
more isolated by mid to late evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...

Models continue to suggest more limited chances of PM thunderstorms
on Wednesday. A surface trough will push east into the far eastern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain by early to mid afternoon. This should
become the main focus for scattered thunderstorms. SPC has removed
the marginal risk for severe for the Day 2 outlook. However,
isolated pulse storms may again become strong - but likely remaining
just below the wind gust criteria. The higher POP (30-40 percent)
will be in the east, with lower POP (around 20-25 percent) in the
west. Highs again should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM Tuesday...

The trend of diurnal showers and thunderstorms should be disrupted
towards the end of the week thanks to some warmer temperatures
moving into the region between 500-700 mb, acting as a cap to
developing thunderstorms. Still, on Thursday scattered thunderstorms
will be primarily to the southeast of US-1, and on Friday just
isolated thunderstorms will be south of US-64. A weak upper level
shortwave is expected to develop over the Deep South over the
weekend and move east, although the ECMWF and GFS show differing
evolutions to this feature. This will allow the trend of diurnal
showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. Temperatures will
generally be near climatology, with highs/lows around 90/70 degrees,
although Saturday looks like the warmest day through the next seven
days with some mid 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Generally VFR CIGS will dominate central NC this afternoon and
tonight. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms with MVFR CIGS
and VSBYS are expected. The highest probability of thunderstorms
will be at KINT and KFAY, with lesser chances at KRWI. Then later
tonight, some patchy sub-VFR stratus and even some ground fog are
possible, especially around KRWI.

Looking beyond 18z Wed, generally VFR conditions are expected with
the exception of a chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. The
highest probabilities of a storm will be at KFAY. As drier air
pushes in from the north Wed night, shower/storm chances will trend
down and be lower than usual Thu and Fri. Generally VFR conditions
expected.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-043-010930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-010930-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe storms are possible today across south central
North Carolina, mainly along and south of Highway 64. Damaging wind
gusts over 60 mph are the primary threat, mainly between 3 pm and 8
pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1247 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ089-301745-
Sampson NC-
1247 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SAMPSON COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bowdens, or 9 miles northeast of Clinton, moving south at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Harrells and Turkey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 7834 3517 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7813 3472 7811
      3471 7811 3468 7816 3461 7821 3460 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 348DEG 22KT 3509 7822

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
111 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ089-301745-
Sampson NC-
111 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Godwin, or 19 miles southeast of Lillington, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton Grove, Hobbton and Spivey's Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 7864 3517 7864 3517 7863 3520 7864
      3520 7863 3521 7863 3523 7862 3525 7862
      3527 7858 3530 7858 3530 7853 3526 7848
      3526 7841 3528 7832 3528 7830 3526 7828
      3502 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 285DEG 13KT 3521 7857

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ026-041-301915-
Franklin NC-Wake NC-
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAKE AND CENTRAL
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wake Forest, or 13 miles southwest of Louisburg, moving northeast at
10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wake Forest, Bunn, Rolesville and Youngsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 7818 3591 7820 3582 7843 3597 7857
      3614 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 233DEG 7KT 3594 7843

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
352 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ042-043-078-302030-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
352 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN WILSON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Bailey, or 17 miles northeast of Smithfield, moving
south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wilson, Fremont, Kenly, Lucama, Black Creek, Pikeville, Sims, Eureka,
Buckhorn Reservoir and Nahunta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 7783 3548 7813 3573 7820 3579 7803
      3580 7795 3557 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 338DEG 8KT 3567 7810

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
409 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NCZ027-042-302100-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-
409 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NASH AND
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Clayton, or 10 miles north of Smithfield, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Clayton, Bailey, Micro, Selma, Kenly, Middlesex, Emit,
Flowers and Buckhorn Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 7819 3571 7816 3570 7816 3561 7813
      3560 7812 3559 7808 3550 7829 3569 7848
      3582 7826 3584 7824 3590 7814 3579 7802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 300DEG 13KT 3566 7830

JD