Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Raleigh, NC

778 
WWUS52 KRAH 131225
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
825 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

NCC051-085-131234-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200413T1300Z/
Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
825 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HARNETT AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3499 7864 3509 7867 3530 7858 3533 7853
      3543 7858 3569 7846 3583 7825 3579 7804
      3573 7819 3560 7812 3558 7782 3538 7780
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7802 3519 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7811 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1224Z 262DEG 54KT 3556 7803 3486 7852 

$$

NCC101-127-163-191-131300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200413T1300Z/
Wayne NC-Nash NC-Sampson NC-Johnston NC-
825 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT
FOR WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN NASH...SAMPSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

At 824 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fremont to near Ammon, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Smithfield, Clinton, Clayton, Mount Olive, Benson,
Fremont, Walnut Creek, Bailey and Harrells.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EDT for central North
Carolina.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 7864 3509 7867 3530 7858 3533 7853
      3543 7858 3569 7846 3583 7825 3579 7804
      3573 7819 3560 7812 3558 7782 3538 7780
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3519 7802 3519 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7811 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1224Z 262DEG 54KT 3556 7803 3486 7852 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

23

225 
WWUS52 KRAH 131239
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
839 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

NCC127-131248-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200413T1300Z/
Nash NC-
839 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NASH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3488 7851 3530 7834 3541 7827 3561 7825
      3569 7824 3567 7821 3569 7820 3559 7813
      3557 7783 3537 7781 3518 7784 3515 7790
      3519 7802 3519 7816 3518 7816 3518 7817
      3489 7816 3473 7821 3470 7812 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 269DEG 53KT 3553 7791 3524 7805 3475 7829 

$$

NCC101-163-191-131300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200413T1300Z/
Wayne NC-Sampson NC-Johnston NC-
839 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT
FOR WAYNE...SAMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

At 838 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fremont to near Mount Olive to near Harrells,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Clinton, Mount Olive, Fremont, Walnut Creek, Harrells,
Micro, Pine Level, Kenly and Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EDT for central North
Carolina.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 7851 3530 7834 3541 7827 3561 7825
      3569 7824 3567 7821 3569 7820 3559 7813
      3557 7783 3537 7781 3518 7784 3515 7790
      3519 7802 3519 7816 3518 7816 3518 7817
      3489 7816 3473 7821 3470 7812 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 269DEG 53KT 3553 7791 3524 7805 3475 7829 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

23

283 
WWUS52 KRAH 131255
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

NCC101-163-191-131304-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200413T1300Z/
Wayne NC-Sampson NC-Johnston NC-
855 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE...SAMPSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 AM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning are moving out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. Strong gusty winds 
of 25 to 35 mph will continue through the morning and early 
afternoon. 

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3488 7851 3530 7834 3541 7827 3561 7825
      3569 7824 3567 7821 3569 7820 3559 7813
      3557 7783 3537 7781 3518 7784 3515 7790
      3519 7802 3519 7816 3518 7816 3518 7817
      3489 7816 3473 7821 3470 7812 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 270DEG 54KT 3554 7762 3525 7776 3476 7800 

$$

23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front and associated warm, humid, and unstable air will lift
north across the Carolinas early this morning, immediately ahead of
a broken band of thunderstorms that will cross the area this
morning. A cold front will follow and cross the region tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY and TONIGHT/...
As of 237 AM Monday...

...A Wind Advisory For Frequent Gusts Between 40 to 50 mph Continues
through 4 PM Today...
...Severe Storms Expected through Noon Today...

Model guidance in good agreement that the highly advertised main
line of convection will approach and affect the Triad down to Anson
Co between 4-5 AM, the US-1 corridor 6-8 AM, the I-95 corridor 7-9
AM, then exiting our CWA by 11 AM or Noon.  There is some suggestion
in the CAMs that a scattered tstms may develop out ahead of the main
line of convection, and should this happen, there can be tstm
activity even earlier than the aforementioned times.

Latest mesoanalysis shows deep layer ascent with a mid-upr short
wave trough moving across the TN Valley.  Notable div aloft in
conjunction with the main line of deep convection from the central
Appalachians south to southern AL.  Given the advertised strong wind
fields, 60-80+kt of effective shear over norther GA and Upstate SC
will lift NE into our area in the pre-dawn hours.  While the
thermodynamic profile right now is fairly stable, that will soon
change as vigorous llvl southerly flow advects more buoyant airmass
into our area.  With that happening in conjunction with the
increasing aforementioned shear, the stage is set for a round of
potentially dangerous severe convection when the activity moves
through at the times noted above.  Really no changes wrt
hazards...they are all on the table...including widespread damaging
straight-line winds, tornadoes (and possibly one or two longer-lived
violent tornadoes), gold ball size hail assoc with supercells, and
heavy downpours.

Latest water vapor channel shows impressive subsidence in the wake
of the main line of convection.  Projecting that forward, in
conjunction with model guidance, suggests that we'll see sunshine
return not too long after the convection exits to our east.  Even
though the sfc fropa will be delayed until this evening, attm it
appears that our precip chances will end for today with the exiting
morning convection.  So with abundant sunshine and vigorous mixing,
higher winds aloft will continue to mix down, thus continuing the
risk for 30-40 mph winds through mid to late afternoon, thus why the
wind advy will continue until 4 PM today.   That mixing will also
help warm afternoon temp readings into the low-mid 80s.

For tonight, NE low level winds and modest CAA can be expected.
While dry aloft thanks to subsidence, forecast soundings show the
aforementioned NE flow and CAA may set the stage for scattered 3-
5kft AGL statocu overnight. Lows tonight from mid 40s northwest to
the mid 50 southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

The pattern is forecast to remain active through mid week as the
mean mid/upper level l/w trough will remain over at least the
eastern half of the country. This will allow for yet another
disturbance to approach the area on Tuesday and move across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. As associated surface low will
track along a quasi-stationary frontal zone located across the
southeast U.S. Central NC will generally remain on the cool side of
this boundary, with only a very small threat at this time of
thunderstorms across the far south/southeast Tuesday evening/early
Wednesday morning. Thus, will continue to leave out any mention of
thunder from the forecast for now. However, we should see precip
blossom Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should result in a
cool/cold rain on Wednesday morning (rainfall amounts generally a
half inch or less, with perhaps a bit more across the southeast), as
a reinforcing surface high builds into the are from the north. The
precip should begin to end during the afternoon, with a small chance
we could see some clearing late in the day. This may result in high
temps occurring very late in the afternoon/early evening.

High temps on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 60s north
to the mid 70s south, with lows on Wednesday morning in the 40s to
near 50 south. Highs on Wednesday, which will be greatly affected by
the precip and may not occur until very late in the day are expected
to be in the upper 40s across the northeast Piedmont and northern
and central Coastal Plain to the lower 50s elsewhere, with perhaps a
few mid 50s across far western/southwestern portions of the area.
However, we could see temps remain/drop into the 40s across a good
portion of the area during the late morning/early afternoon (with
even some upper 30s not out of the question).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Cool high pressure will build into and across the area Wednesday
night through Friday. This will result in cool temps for mid April,
with below normal temps through Friday morning. Expect high temps on
Thursday will be in the lower to mid 60s. High temps on Friday
should rebound to near normal, as the surface high shifts to the
east and a warming return flow returns. Thus, expect highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Morning low are expected to range from 35-40
on Thursday morning and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Friday
morning. Thus, we may have the potential for some frost again across
portions of the area late week.

The next system is expected to move across the area Friday evening
into Saturday. Questions remain with regard to timing/strength and
moisture return in advance of this system. Thus will limit pops to
the slight chance/low chance category with high temps slightly below
normal for Saturday, generally in the mid to upper 60s after lows in
the mid to upper 40s to near 50 on Saturday morning. Surface high
pressure will quickly move across the Saturday night into Sunday,
with precip possibly returning by late Sunday. Will keep high temps
on Sunday near normal, in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Monday...

Extremely poor aviation conditions expected over the next 12-18 hours
as a line of severe thunderstorms moves into the region. Ahead of
the storms, winds are quickly increasing across central NC with SSE
gusts to 30kt already.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
on the increase, with the main line of storms expected to cross the
area between 09-15Z.  Confidence in the timing of the main line is
fairly high, with storms capable of producing wind gusts well in
excess of 50kt.  Ceilings should mostly hold in the IFR/MVFR range
outside of the heaviest storms.  Once the storms move through, winds
will turn to more SWrly but will still be capable of gusting to 40kt
or higher through 18Z.  After 18z,  gusts should drop to 20-30kt as
VFR conditions return, though some gusts may continue into tonight
as a cold front pushes into the area form the northwest.

Outlook beyond 06Z Tuesday:

Northwesterly winds and high pressure  will continue to usher in
drier air early Tuesday.  A stalled frontal zone along the Carolina
coast will retreat back to the north late Tuesday as an area of low
pressure tracks along the front and brings a period of rain and sub-
VFR conditions that lasts into Wednesday.  VFR should return for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-141145-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Potential for patchy frost Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ007-023-024-141145-
Person-Alamance-Orange-
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 118 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A band of thunderstorms will move east across central North Carolina
this morning. Scattered to numerous gusts between 50 and 60 mph,
with isolated ones in excess of 60 mph, will be possible both within
and away from showers and storms. Additionally, the most intense
storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes. Storms will
exit the area by 11 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Potential for patchy frost Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-075>077-084>086-141145-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Durham-Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 118 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A band of thunderstorms will move east across central North Carolina
this morning. Scattered to numerous gusts between 50 and 60 mph,
with isolated ones in excess of 60 mph, will be possible both within
and away from showers and storms. Additionally, the most intense
storms will also be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of
hurricane force (74 mph), isolated tornadoes, and large hail. Storms will
exit the area by 11 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Potential for patchy frost Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-141145-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
740 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 118 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A band of thunderstorms will move east across central North Carolina
this morning. Scattered to numerous gusts between 50 and 60 mph,
with isolated ones in excess of 60 mph, will be possible both within
and away from showers and storms. Additionally, the most intense
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of
hurricane force (74 mph), isolated tornadoes, and large hail. Storms will
exit the area by 11 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Potential for patchy frost Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE EAST LAURINBURG   34.79N 79.36W
04/13/2020  M68 MPH          SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

            GUST REPORTED AT MEB ASOS.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW SANFORD           35.48N 79.18W
04/13/2020                   LEE                NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ON HOUSE IN SANFORD.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                35.35N 79.42W
04/13/2020                   MOORE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON CARPORT IN CARTHAGE.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW WHISPERING PINES  35.24N 79.39W
04/13/2020  M56 MPH          MOORE              NC   AWOS

            49 KNOT WIND GUST AT KSOP (MOORE COUNTY
            AIRPORT).

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
759 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MONCURE             35.64N 79.08W
04/13/2020                   CHATHAM            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ASHEBORO            35.72N 79.83W
04/13/2020                   RANDOLPH           NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AT PARK DR AND
            HIGHWOOD DR IN ASHEBORO.

&&

JD