Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Raleigh, NC

160 
WWUS52 KRAH 181942
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

NCC069-181952-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-200718T2015Z/
Franklin NC-
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3588 7830 3582 7826 3575 7837 3586 7850
      3594 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 003DEG 20KT 3581 7840 

$$

NCC183-182015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-200718T2015Z/
Wake NC-
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY...

At 342 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Zebulon, or 14
miles east of Raleigh, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Zebulon and Wendell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 7830 3582 7826 3575 7837 3586 7850
      3594 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 003DEG 20KT 3581 7840 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Leins

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, subtropical high pressure will generally remain in place
through the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Water vapor satellited showed a broad, upper-level ridge in place
across the region stretching from Alabama to the Carolinas. Surface
observations showed a weak surface trough stretching from the north
Atlantic coast down across central North Carolina and a 1021 mb
Bermuda high to our east. Southwesterly flow near the surface will
keep the moist airmass in place across the region today, with
afternoon dew point temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Combined with highs in the low to mid 90s, the heat indices will
reach the low to mid 100s again today for most areas. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
during peak heating, with most activity diminishing by late evening.
MLCAPE will reach 2000-2500 J/kg this afternoon, however shear
remains relatively low thanks to the nearby ridge. Slow-moving
storms could produce an isolated flash flooding threat, but the main
threat with stronger storms today will be wind gusts. SPC has all of
central NC in a general thunderstorm outlook for the day. Lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, with an isolated
shower/thunderstorm possible mainly across the Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

The persistent weather pattern continues, with high pressure aloft
over the region and a lee trough across central NC at the surface.
Southerly flow and continued advection of warm moist air into the
area will result in another day with PWATS in the 1.75" - 2.0" and
MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/Kg but generally weak shear. Convection will
again be focused along differential heating boundaries, though the
bigger story will be the third consecutive day of highs in the mid
90s and heat index values over 100 across much of central NC. Should
this hold true, a heat advisory will be needed for Sunday. Those
folks who have outside work, activities, etc. should try to get them
done early in the day and retreat into the shade or air conditioned
spaces during the afternoon. Should you need to be outside, remember
to drink plenty of fluids and wear light colored, loose fitting
clothing. Expect little relief from the heat Sunday night, with lows
only dropping into the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...

...Hot, and dangerously so because of the probable persistence and
longevity through at least the next week...

An expansive subtropical ridge analyzed in 00Z upr air data from the
srn High Plains to the Carolinas, and which included observed 500 mb
heights at or above the max moving average at both GSO and MHX, will
generally persist throughout the upcoming week. A weakness in the
ridge will nonetheless develop over the Carolinas through Mon,
however, as one ridge center now over NC retrogrades wwd and allows
for a weak shortwave trough over the Great Lakes this morning to
settle sewd across the middle Atlantic this weekend, then swd and
swwd across the Carolinas early next week. The ridge will otherwise
reassert itself across NC through mid-late week. 850 mb temperatures
are consequently forecast to remain pegged around 20 C over the srn
middle Atlantic and Carolinas throughout the forecast period.

At the surface, an Appalachian-lee trough will be situated over w-
cntl NC, on the wrn periphery of high pressure that will remain
parked near and north of Bermuda. Associated prevailing swly flow
across the Carolinas will tend to limit the inland penetration of
the sea breeze each afternoon-evening, likely only into the Coastal
Plain and ern Sandhills.

A pocket of slightly cooler temperatures aloft accompanying the
aforementioned trough/weakness in the subtropical ridge down the srn
middle Atlantic coast and Carolinas may enhance convective coverage
and intensity, particularly over the ern half of NC, on Mon.
Otherwise, diurnally-driven precipitation chances will be near
climatology for this time of year. Weak deep layer flow and high
precipitable water values around two inches will favor a typical
pulse-type environment, with a related risk of precipitation-loaded
wet microbursts and localized flooding.

Diurnal convection and associated outflow will present the primary
opportunity for relief from the heat and humidity that will
otherwise be oppressive. In fact, any notable cooling in statistical
forecast guidance for mid-late week is likely a function of an
inherent trend toward climo in the medium range and not reflective
of any legitimate mass field change, given the presence and
influence of the subtropical ridge and unrelenting 850 mb
temperatures around 20C. Related low level thickness values are
likewise forecast to remain relatively unchanged around 15-20 meters
above average through the period. As such, low to mid 90s will
generally be the rule, along with surface dewpoints mostly in the
lwr-mid 70s. Multi-day maximum Heat Index values between 102-107
will result over all but the climatologically-cooler nrn Piedmont,
where upr 90s to 102 degrees may be more common. Heat Advisories --
with criteria of 105F or higher for at least two consecutive hours,
or three or more consecutive days of 102-105F-- will likely be
initiated this weekend and subsequently continue through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered TSRA will continue through the evening
across most of the area, especially over portions of the Piedmont
and Sandhills. In and around storms, MVFR ceilings and VIS, frequent
lightning, gusty and erratic surface winds and strong up/downdrafts
are likely. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with winds generally less than 10 kt.

Beyond the TAF period: Afternoon/evening TSRA/SHRA and the potential
for early morning FG/low-stratus will continue each day through the
period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...JJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

NCZ011-026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191200-
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s combined with high humidity
will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to 102 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s combined with high humidity
will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to 103 degrees
each afternoon. The prolonged period and cumulative effects of the heat
will become dangerous.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-191200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s combined with high humidity
will result in heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s combined with high humidity
will result in heat index values between 102 and 108 degrees each
afternoon. The prolonged period and cumulative effects of the heat
will become dangerous. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-182300-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROXBORO, OXFORD, CREEDMOOR, HENDERSON,
KITTRELL, WARRENTON, NORLINA, ROANOKE RAPIDS, ENFIELD,
SCOTLAND NECK, WINSTON-SALEM, GREENSBORO, HIGH POINT, BURLINGTON,
GRAHAM, MEBANE, HILLSBOROUGH, CHAPEL HILL, CARRBORO, DURHAM,
ROUGEMONT, LOUISBURG, FRANKLINTON, NASHVILLE, SPRING HOPE,
ROCKY MOUNT, TARBORO, PRINCEVILLE, LEXINGTON, THOMASVILLE,
ASHEBORO, ARCHDALE, SILER CITY, PITTSBORO, RALEIGH, CARY, APEX,
WAKE FOREST, KNIGHTDALE, SMITHFIELD, SELMA, CLAYTON, WILSON,
ALBEMARLE, TROY, SOUTHERN PINES, PINEHURST, ABERDEEN, CARTHAGE,
SANFORD, LILLINGTON, ANGIER, BUIES CREEK, ERWIN, DUNN, GOLDSBORO,
WADESBORO, POLKTON, ROCKINGHAM, ELLERBE, LAURINBURG,
CAMP MACKALL, WAGRAM, RAEFORD, FAYETTEVILLE, SPRING LAKE,
HOPE MILLS, CLINTON, AND ROSEBORO
1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S TODAY...

High temperatures in the low to mid 90s will combine with high
dewpoint temperatures to create heat index values between 100 to
105 degrees this afternoon across most of the region.

If you must be outdoors today, please drink plenty of water, wear
loose fitting, light colored clothing and take breaks in an
air conditioned building.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media or follow our
web page at weather.gov/rah or Twitter or Facebook for the latest
weather updates.

JJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

NCZ083-084-181900-
Anson NC-Richmond NC-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ANSON AND WESTERN
RICHMOND COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wadesboro, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wadesboro, Lilesville and Blewett Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8011 3512 8002 3516 7977 3486 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 287DEG 8KT 3501 7999

Leins

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

NCZ026-027-041-042-182000-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Wake NC-
253 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
NASH...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...NORTH CENTRAL JOHNSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Bunn, or 10 miles south of Louisburg, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wake Forest, Zebulon, Bailey, Bunn, Wendell, Rolesville, Spring Hope,
Youngsville, Middlesex and Pilot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7796 3570 7828 3600 7860 3612 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 317DEG 12KT 3595 7833

Leins