Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
359 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level high pressure will remain over the region through early
next week. Increasing temperatures and humidity each day will create
dangerous heat through early next week. Weak disturbances aloft will
help generate a varied chance of daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Friday...

Currently, temperatures across much of central NC remain in the low
and mid 90s with heat index temperatures into the triple digits.
KRDU was reporting a temperature of 95 degrees and a dew point of 75
degrees with a scorching 106 degree heat index. Skies remain partly
to mostly cloudy accompanied with a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the Northwest Piedmont as the mid/upper level
trough begins to move into central NC. Due to boundary
destabilization and an increase in thunderstorms already ongoing SPC
upgraded the northern portion of central NC to a Marginal Risk for
severe storms through this evening.

As temperatures begin to reach their maximums this afternoon they
will fall after sunset but due to the higher dew point temperatures,
low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s, which is about 5
degrees above seasonal normals. Cloud cover will increase this
afternoon as will the chance of scattered to wide spread
thunderstorms, especially in the Northern Piedmont. These storms can
bring lightning, wind gusts to 40-50 mph, and a brief heavy
rainfall. As the evening continues into the overnight hours these
storms will move southeast and into a more stable environment
causing most storms to weaken/dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Friday...

The upper level ridge is expected to hold firm, even strengthening a
bit. However, the combination of old convective outflows from
tonight's storms, differential heating, high CAPES, and a weak
surface trough over the Northern Piedmont will continue to have 45-
60 POPs again for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be hot
during the day as most places will see temperatures in the mid 90s
with again, a heat index in the triple digits in the afternoon hours
before the storms develop. Low temperatures will decrease in the
evening and overnight hours into the mid 70s. The probability of
showers and thunderstorms will decrease Saturday night, but an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn't out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM Friday...

A strong subtropical ridge will remain anchored over the southern US
from this weekend into early next week. At the surface, a weak
trough will stall over central NC during this time frame. This will
result in above-normal shower and storm chances each day through the
end of the period. By mid-to-late next week, an upper trough will
move across the Great Lakes and Northeast US, suppressing the ridge
off the US East Coast. This should result in even higher
shower/storm chances. For now keep POPs at high chance, lower than
model guidance, due to the uncertainty of being 5-7 days out. The
flow aloft looks very weak through the entire period, and no
significant frontal passages are expected. Therefore, as is typical
this time of year, the showers and storms will be mostly driven by
diurnal heating, with the best chances in the afternoon and early
evening each day.

The upper ridge will result in hot temperatures this weekend through
the middle of next week, generally low-to-mid 90s (with a few upper-
90s even possible in the typically hotter locations). The
combination of these temperatures and dew points in the low-to-mid
70s will result in dangerously-high heat indices in the low-to-mid
100s each afternoon, highest from around Raleigh to Fayetteville.
The day with the highest heat indices currently looks to be Monday.
For now have opted to hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory, but will
continue to monitor the potential for one. The increased troughiness
should gradually lower temperatures to near normal by Thursday and
Friday (upper-80s to low-90s). Low temperatures will be in the low-
to-mid 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Scattered to widespread SHRA/TSRA will develop across the region
this afternoon and evening from the NW, with greatest coverage
across the northern Piedmont. In and around storms, MVFR ceilings,
frequent lightning, gusty and erratic surface winds and strong
up/downdrafts are likely. Storm coverage will be less elsewhere,
with coverage decreasing late evening through overnight. An isolated
SHRA is possible overnight, however most aerodromes should be VFR.

Looking beyond 18z Sat, diurnal TSRA will develop, with more
isolated coverage of SHRA overnight. Otherwise, mostly VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...CC/JJT
SHORT TERM...Badgett/CC/JJT
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...JJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
415 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-180815-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
415 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat indices should top out around 100 this afternoon in the eastern
Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Sandhills. This includes Raleigh,
Fayeteville, and Rocky Mount.

A few thunderstorms may approach severe limits this afternoon and
early evening in the Piedmont and Northern Coastal Plain. Frequent
lightning, gusty wind to 50 mph, and heavy rain may accompany the
strongest thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Dangerous heat and humidity levels are expected this weekend into
much of next week. Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected each
afternoon from Saturday through Thursday. The highest values around
105 will be found from Fayetteville and Raleigh to Goldsboro. Heat
Advisories may be needed in later forecasts for these areas. Even in
the Piedmont Triad region, heat indices around 100 are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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