Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Raleigh, NC

356 
WWUS52 KRAH 110036
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
836 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCC057-067-081-151-110100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-200711T0100Z/
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Randolph NC-Guilford NC-
836 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH...DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES...

At 836 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from 7 miles south of Winston-Salem to near 
Salisbury, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Lexington, Thomasville,
Clemmons, Linwood, Archdale, Trinity and Jamestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3585 8042 3584 8039
      3587 8039 3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8038
      3598 8040 3608 8033 3607 7982 3571 7994
      3551 8009 3551 8018 3558 8021 3568 8033
      3572 8033 3574 8046 3577 8045 3579 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 270DEG 30KT 3599 8023 3560 8044 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

22

230 
WWUS52 KRAH 110057
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
857 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCC057-067-081-151-110107-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-200711T0100Z/
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Randolph NC-Guilford NC-
857 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH...
DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM EDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  

However gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these 
thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3585 8042 3584 8039
      3587 8039 3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8038
      3598 8040 3608 8033 3607 7982 3571 7994
      3551 8009 3551 8018 3558 8021 3568 8033
      3572 8033 3574 8046 3577 8045 3579 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 270DEG 30KT 3599 8003 3560 8024 

$$

22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
721 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Fay will move slowly northward up the Mid-Atlantic
coast through tonight. A weak surface front will move SE into the
area late tonight and will stall out across the region through the
weekend. Another weak front will stall our across the area early
next week followed by a strong upper-level ridge building over the
region by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Friday...

The earlier MCV and initial mid-upr level trough axis have moved out
of and into e-cntl NC, respectively, with little impact this
afternoon. As such, the focus continues to be convective development
over the wrn and w-cntl NC, invof the lee surface trough and ahead
of the stronger, synoptic shortwave trough approaching from the lwr
OH Valley. Earlier forecast rationale through tonight consequently
remains relatively unchanged. There may, however, be some areas of
low stratus around sunrise near and east of the incoming surface
trough axis, where moisture and convergence will be relatively
maximized.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

A synoptic shortwave trough is evident in 12Z upr air and wv
satellite data this morning from srn PA sswwd through a pair of
minor perturbations over nwrn NC and cntl SC, respectively. The
perturbations and parent trough axis will move slowly ewd across
cntl NC this afternoon and reach the srn middle Atlantic coast
around 00Z/Sat, with generally neutral mid-upr level height tendency
indicative of minor contribution to forcing for ascent through that
time over cntl NC. Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough extended
from the upr Great Lakes swd across wrn IN, KY, and nern AR. An
unseasonably strong upr jet upstream of that trough from the Great
Basin to the cntl Great Plains --including a daily record observed
250 mb wind of 115 kt at BOI this morning-- will help dig that
trough with slight negative tilt across the OH Valley and lwr Great
Lakes through 12Z Sat. The axis of that trough will extend swd in
the vicinity of the cntl and srn Appalachians through the same time,
with preceding ~20 meter 500 mb height falls forecast across cntl NC
tonight. Lastly, an MCV from swwd-moving convection over the
Carolinas on Thu is evident over nrn Duplin Co. this morning. That
feature will undergo additional deformation (and weaken) while
drifting generally newd across ern NC through the afternoon.

At the surface, weak ridging along the Gulf coast and srn
Appalachians has resulted in light nwly, anticyclonic flow over the
Carolinas this morning; and this will soon be replaced by light and
variable to light swly flow, with the diurnal intensification of a
lee trough over wrn VA and Carolinas through this afternoon. That
trough is forecast to subsequently drift ewd across cntl NC tonight,
to the Coastal Plain by 12Z Sat.

The MCV noted above resulted in patches of light rain/showers from
associated mid level ceilings over the srn Coastal Plain and ern
Sandhills early this morning (around 08Z); and it may yet focus
additional showers over Sampson, Wayne, and ern Wilson and Edgecombe
Co. as it tracks newd across ern NC during the next several hours.
Otherwise, the Blue Ridge/terrain and the lee trough are expected to
become the primary foci for convective development today, some
scattered of which will drift ewd across the NC Piedmont late this
afternoon and evening. While those showers and storms are likely to
peak in intensity over the Foothills and srn and wrn Piedmont closer
to peak diurnal heating and subsequently weaken with time and ewd
extent as they move into the ern Piedmont and Sandhills, forcing for
ascent accompanying the stronger of the shortwave troughs
approaching tonight, and the lee surface trough, warrant a continued
slight chance of a shower or storm throughout the night. Weak deep
layer flow and DCAPE suggests storms will be generally sub-severe,
at least in cntl NC. Instead, that weak steering flow combined with
observed 1.75-2.00" precipitable water values over cntl NC suggest
localized heavy downpours and flooding of urban and poor drainage
areas may be a concern.

Previously forecast high temperatures remain generally unchanged
this morning. However, observed mean mixing ratios in the lowest
kilometer at both GSO and MHX this morning were about 2 g/kg than
those of Thu, or about 2C lower with respect to 925 mb dewpoint
temperatures. That drying suggests surface dewpoints have the
potential to mix out (undergo vertical dry air advection) into the
upr 60s to around 70 F this afternoon, versus the lwr-mid 70s that
were common on Thu. As such, associated Heat Index values are likely
to peak mostly below 100 degrees, ranging from the mid 90s over the
nrn Piedmont to around 100 degrees across the srn Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Friday...

Broadly cyclonic and generally weakly-perturbed flow aloft will
exist throughout the period over cntl NC. Within that flow, a trough
axis accompanying a synoptic shortwave centered over the lwr Great
Lakes will extend swd along the Appalachians at 12Z Sat, possibly
preceded by a weaker, convectively-enhanced mid level trough
depicted in the models over the Carolinas at that time. The synoptic
trough, one with more predictability, will move east across cntl and
ern NC through 00Z Sun, then offshore overnight. Generally neutral
height tendency suggests that contribution to vertical motion will
remain weak.

At the surface --and likely of greater consequence for both
humidity/Heat Index values and diurnal convective chances-- a trough
will drift ewd across the Coastal Plain through the afternoon.
Surface dewpoints are likely to mix out well into the 60s behind
that trough, with resultant weak instability that should remain
capped by a warm layer depicted in forecast soundings around 750 mb.
To the east, in the Coastal Plain, continued lwr 70s dewpoints will
favor moderate destabilization and the development of scattered
afternoon-evening storms as the trough/convergence axis drifts
across that region. Increasingly dry air aloft will favor high DCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg, with a resultant threat of damaging
downburst wind gusts. Otherwise, temperatures will be similarly hot
as those of Fri, though with the aforementioned lwr humidity/HIs
west of the Coastal Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 342 PM Friday...

Sun/Sun night: Mean mid level troughing will hold over the East
Coast while strong ridging persists in the Desert Southwest.
Initially strong but weakening shortwave energy will dive through
the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians during this period,
while the corresponding surface cold front weakens and slows as it
moves to the Appalachians and loses its forward momentum. Initial PW
is rather low Sun, and while some recovery is expected ahead of the
dampening shortwave trough, there is scant opportunity for low level
moisture return, and the weak mid level flow suggests minimal
dynamic forcing for ascent, all leading to limited convection
coverage. Will maintain low chance pops Sun afternoon and evening,
20-30%, although even this may end up too high. Thicknesses will sit
near to just above normal with good deep mixing, so expect highs of
90-95 and lows 70-75.

Mon-Fri: Expect above normal temps to continue, especially mid to
late week, with below normal pops. The aforementioned shortwave will
track ENE over NY/PA to New England Mon/Mon night, kicking the mean
trough axis enough eastward to nudge the surface front/trough into
eastern NC. Will have a chance of showers/storms over the SE with
isolated activity elsewhere. The surface front will become
increasingly diffuse but will likely hold over our E sections or
just E of the forecast area, and expect any pops to be low and
largely confined to our far E and SE once again on Tue. The
dampening trough will shift off the coast midweek as the mid level
ridge builds in from the WSW, pushing thicknesses up well above
normal and leaving us largely dry as the mid levels dry out and warm
up, limiting daily CAPE with poor deep layer shear. Will have just
isolated pops at most Wed-Fri. Expect highs of 90-95 Mon/Tue rising
to mid-upper 90s Wed-Thu and mid 90s Fri. Lows mostly 70-75. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence showers and thunderstorms will
move across central NC this evening into early overnight. Sub-VFR
vsbys and strong, variable winds are possible as the storms move
over the terminals. Outside of the storms, largely expect VFR
conditions to prevail through the TAF period, though some model
guidance suggests a period of sub-vfr cigs developing overnight.
Best chance will be at KFAY. Outside of any lingering outflow or
storms, expect winds to generally be around 5 kts through the
period, veering from southwesterly ahead of the surface front to
northwesterly behind it. This boundary is expected to stall over the
area through the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will be possible again Friday aft/eve, mainly along
and east of the I-95 corridor (east of the boundary) during the
aft/eve Saturday. -KC

Looking ahead:Chance of sub-VFR stratus and diurnal convection
mainly at RWI and FAY through early-mid next week. -MWS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...KC/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-112000-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The combination of hot temperatures and seasonably high humidity
will result in heat index values around 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The combination of hot temperatures and seasonably high humidity
will result in heat index values around 100 degrees again Saturday
afternoon.

Additionally, thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, mainly along and
east of Interstate 95, will be capable of producing damaging
downburst winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ026-040-041-073>077-083>086-112000-
Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The combination of hot temperatures and seasonably high humidity
will result in heat index values around 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-112000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
532 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ022-038-039-102230-
Guilford NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
532 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIDSON...RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thomasville, or 8 miles southwest of High Point, moving southeast at
20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Asheboro, Lexington, Randleman, North Carolina Zoo,
Thomasville, Archdale, Trinity, Jamestown and Ramseur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects. Dont wait until you see the first lightning
flash before heading to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 7996 3578 7959 3551 7985 3551 8018
      3591 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 308DEG 16KT 3586 8011

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
628 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ038-039-102330-
Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
628 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON AND
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomasville, or 9 miles east of Lexington, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.  Up to two
inches of rain have fallen between Lexington and Thomasville.  Some
minor flooding is possible, as well as quick rises on Abbotts Creek
in Davidson County.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Thomasville, Trinity and Gordontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8024 3593 8010 3587 7989 3571 7985
      3565 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 295DEG 8KT 3581 8008

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
634 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ021-038-102330-
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
634 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH AND NORTH
CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 632 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huntsville, or 7 miles south of East Bend, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.  Very
heavy rain and minor flooding is also possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Huntsville, Lewisville,
Arcadia, Pfafftown, Welcome and Sedge Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8050 3612 8046 3614 8044 3619 8044
      3616 8017 3602 8014 3585 8032 3588 8037
      3590 8037 3596 8038 3599 8042 3601 8042
      3603 8045 3606 8046 3604 8049 3605 8051
      3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 285DEG 18KT 3611 8051

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
810 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NCZ038-110100-
Davidson NC-
810 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAVIDSON COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM EDT...

At 809 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Clemmons to near
Cleveland to Mooresville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Lexington, Thomasville, Linwood, Denton, Gordontown, High
Rock Lake, Newsom, Arcadia and High Rock Boat Dock Marina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Boaters on the open water and those camping outdoors are especially
vulnerable to the dangers of lightning. Seek harbor immediately and
find safe shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8039 3587 8039 3588 8042 3589 8037
      3596 8038 3597 8040 3598 8038 3600 8032
      3600 8022 3603 8021 3601 8004 3551 8007
      3551 8018 3558 8021 3568 8033 3572 8033
      3574 8046 3577 8045 3583 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 275DEG 31KT 3605 8044 3570 8060 3548 8073

22