River Flood Warning 53, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
715 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to spread across central and eastern
NC through Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front will cross the Appalachians this evening and then move slowly
across central NC through Thursday before clearing the coast by late
Friday. Chilly high pressure will build into the region for the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...

...Flash Flood Watch continues for all of central NC through 7 pm
Thursday...

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving into the southern
Appalachians with a strong area of high pressure across the western
Atlantic. In addition, Tropical Storm Eta was located about 100
miles southwest of Tampa FL and was moving toward the
north/northeast. A plume of deep tropical moisture was moving across
the Carolinas with precipitable water values analyzed in excess of 2
inches with the 12Z RAOB from KGSO this morning setting a record
value of 2.01 inches for today which is more than 3 times the normal
value (0.6 inches). Surface dew points have climbed into the lower
to mid 70s with a dew point of 76 noted at KTTA and KCTZ. The
elevated dew points have resulted in the airmass becoming moderately
unstable with MLCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/Kg noted across much
of the western and southern Piedmont including the Triad with MLCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/Kg across most of central NC.

As a broad upper trough across the Plains shifts east and a series
of upper level disturbances move rapidly northeast in the
southwesterly flow aloft, forcing for ascent will increase across
the area from west to east tonight into Thursday. In addition, a
surface wave (not tropical cyclone Eta) is apt to develop along the
front on Thursday as the front slowly moves east across the Piedmont
during the day on Thursday. This has resulted in a significant
increase in QPF amounts on Thursday with storm total amounts will
now average between 3 to 5 inches to the east and south of Raleigh
with slightly lesser amounts to the west and northwest. Given the
high precipitable water values, the rain will be locally heavy at
times with tropical like heavy rain showers. Given the tropical
nature of the rain and the greatly increased amounts, have
coordinated with neighboring offices to expand the Flash Flood Watch
across all of central NC through 7pm on Thursday. The front will
slowly move east on thursday night, reaching the coast toward Friday
morning. This will result in a gradual reduction in rain coverage,
intensity and amounts on Thursday night.

It's worth noting that the SPC has placed portions of the western
Piedmont including the Triad in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for tonight. Given the destablization and a strong
flow aloft which has resulted in 0-6km shear values in excess of
30kts, a rotating storm or two is possible, most likely resulting in
a damaging wind gust is possible.

Lows tonight will range in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Highs on
Thursday will only include an upward advancement of a few degree
given the clouds and widespread precipitation. Lows will cool off a
bit on Thursday night and range in the lower 50s north to around
60 south. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

In the upper levels, the trough will continue east of NC Friday with
west-southwesterly flow developing across the region through the
weekend. A few showers may linger across the Coastal Plain on
Friday. At the surface, high pressure will build from the
Midwest on Friday to the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, and into New
England on Sunday. Model ensembles are in fairly good agreement
through the weekend, then diverge in the overall pattern for the
middle of next week. High temperatures will remain above normal
on Friday, then cold air advection will lower highs 5-10
degrees on Saturday creating highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

On Sunday night, a shortwave trough and an associated cold front will
traverse across the region, however moisture and instability
look limited. A few showers may develop across the Coastal
Plain and NE Piedmont, but most areas should remain dry. Surface
high pressure will then build across the lower Mississippi
River Valley. A deeper trough will follow sometime late Monday
into Tuesday. NW flow will follow mid-week as high pressure
builds across TX.

Confidence in the details of the mid-week cold front are low at
this time. Slight warm up on Sunday into the mid 60s to low
70s, with highs decreasing into the 50s by Tuesday when the cold
air arrives behind the front. Low temperatures will continue to
be above normal this weekend, then we should see temperatures
in the 30s return by Tuesday morning with areas of patchy frost.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

Poor aviation conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours and
beyond. Deep moisture streaming over the area from the SSW combined
with an approaching cold front that will move slowly eastward
through the area will result in frequent showers, isolated storms,
and predominantly IFR conditions at all TAF sites through tonight
and Thu. While a few spots around central NC are currently VFR
(including FAY), low clouds will fill in, resulting in MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys with periods of heavy showers and perhaps an isolated
storm or two through at least Thu morning. The showers will taper
down from W to E starting Thu afternoon, likely ending at INT/GSO
soon after 20z but continuing elsewhere through the end of the TAF
valid period. Light and variable winds, mainly from the S or SW,
will shift around to northeasterly from W to E from late Thu morning
through early afternoon at 5-10 kts. A 30-40 kt wind from the SSW at
around 2000-2500 ft AGL 00z-09z this evening/tonight may result in
borderline low level wind shear conditions or at least some
mechanical turbulence.

Looking beyond 00Z Friday, while the showers will end from W to E
Thu evening, the sub-VFR conditions will persist over much of the
area through Fri morning. Improvement to VFR is likely after 18z Fri
at all sites. VFR conditions will generally hold through Mon, but
there is a chance of sub-VFR cigs and a few showers Sun/Sun night
ahead of and with a cold front that will cross the region. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
252 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>075-083-084-122000-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson-Richmond-
252 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, isolated thunderstorms are expected with a few storms
capable of producing a damaging wind gust.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-076>078-085-086-088-089-122000-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
252 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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