River Flood Warning 12, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
649 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and unusually strong upper level trough and accompanying
surface cyclone will strengthen while tracking up the middle
Atlantic coast today. A trailing cold front will cross central NC
this morning. High pressure will follow and build across the
Southeast tonight and Saturday, ahead of a fast-moving frontal
system that will cross the region Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

...Unusually strong, high impact gradient wind event expected
across cntl NC early today...

Beneath and downstream of a powerful mid-upr level trough, the
related height gradient will tighten significantly overhead cntl NC
this morning. Extreme mid lvl height falls are forecast to peak
between 250-300 meters from the srn Appalachians this morning to the
nrn middle Atlantic and srn New England coast tonight.

At the surface, a rapidly deepening cyclone in the immediate lee of
the VA Blue Ridge, already down to 985 mb between ROA and CHO at
09Z, will continue to deepen while tracking newd, to below 970 mb
off the nrn middle Atlantic and srn New England coast by tonight. A
trailing, fractured cold front analyzed from swrn VA (near HLX) swd
across the wrn Carolinas from near CLT and CAE. Strong, 5-10 mb/3 hr
MSL pressure rises will overspread cntl NC this morning, as the
rapidly deepening low lifts away and high pressure expands across
the Southeast.

Frequent wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are expected to materialize
from the sw this morning, likely peaking between 10-15Z. Locally
higher gusts are likely, including at least a couple of isolated
ones in excess of 50 mph, especially from MEB to FAY to GSB. The
wind will gradually lessen through the afternoon, then become mostly
calm overnight. Given that this is expected to be an unusually
strong wind event, and soil is saturated from multiple inches of
soaking rain during the past 48 hours, scattered to numerous
uprooted trees may result, as will numerous power outages from
falling limbs/branches. Travel and outdoor activities are not
advised this morning due to the increased risk of tree damage.

Additionally, scattered showers and isolated storms, as strong mid
level cooling edges ewd and lowers the minus 10C level in the the 10-
12 thousand ft range, will accompany the fractured cold front ewd
across cntl NC this morning.

After early morning high temperatures in the 50s this morning,
temperatures will fall or hold steady through this afternoon, then
fall rapidly with clear skies and strong radiational cooling
overnight. Lows will be mostly be in the mid-upr 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM Friday...

Another vigorous upper level shortwave trough will approach and
cross the Carolinas on Saturday and Saturday night. This feature us
moisture starved and the latest runs have suppressed the best
forcing slightly southward and accelerated the arrival time just a
bit. Will include slight chance PoPs for some spotty/fleeting rain
across the far western Piedmont on Saturday afternoon and across all
of central NC for Saturday evening. The thermal profile is cold but
boundary layer temperatures during he afternoon and evening
appear warm enough to preclude much in the way of snow and given
the light precip amounts and intensity, don't expect much
assistance from wet bulbing. In addition, partial thicknesses
point to an event near the snow/indeterminate location on the
p-type nomogram which is consistent with a pattern that rarely
produces a predominate p-type of snow. Have adjusted maxes down
for Saturday with highs now in the mid 40s to around 50. Behind
the system, lows on Saturday night should fall into the upper
20s to lower 30s. &&

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 525 AM Thursday...

Fair weather with near zero PoPs are expected for Sunday and Sunday
night as a westerly flow aloft and cool surface high pressure is
centered across the region. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower
to mid 50s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The next weather system, comprised of a slow moving cold front will
approach on Monday and then stall across the southern Appalachians
on Tuesday. A southwesterly upper level flow, which will be parallel
to the front will keep the system stalled near and just west of our
region through Thursday. A bit of a lull in precipitation coverage
is expected on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. An upper level low
across the desert southwest will open up and push east on Wednesday
into Thursday and will likely lead to a surface wave developing
along the front and enhancing the rain threat on Thursday. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

A fractured (discontinuous) cold front, and band or two of scattered
showers and isolated storms, will sweep east across cntl NC TAF
sites through 14-15Z. Unseasonably strong swly to wswly surface
winds will develop behind that front, with sustained winds between
20-30 kts, locally higher, and gusts between 35-45 kts, locally
higher. In fact, a gust of 46 kt was recently measured at GSO. The
wind will gradually lessen through noon, but remain breezy through
sunset, then become light to calm overnight.

Outlook: A passing mid to upper level disturbance and related
surface frontal system will cross the region with an associated
chance of light rain and MVFR conditions late Sat into early Sun.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
553 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
553 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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