Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

711 
WWUS82 KRAH 102202
RFWRAH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
602 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-102315-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
602 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL NC...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
654 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Saturday. A strong
storm system will move across the Southeast late Sunday and into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY and TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

High pressure over the central Plains will continue drifting east
and will usher drier air into our area.  In addition, the tight
pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and the departing
frontal system will continue to produce gusty NW winds today of 10-
20kt with higher gusts, particularly during the daytime hours, thus
will continue the SPS for increased fire danger across our entire
CWA. Highs today in the lower 60s.

Tonight look for mainly clear skies and with high pressure building
over the state, coupled with low dew points and light winds, we'll
see temps tonight dipping down in the low to mid 30s.  Right now we
have patchy frost mentioned in our wx grids, and we may end up
needing to issue a frost advisory, but will let our dayshift monitor
dewpoint trends as the day progresses and make that call.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY and SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

High pressure over the state at the start of the day will gradually
shift east by Saturday night.  Look for another nice, fair weather
day with forecast soundings remaining dry and supporting mostly
sunny conditions with highs in the mid 60s.

Return flow will increase Saturday night with the high center well
to our east and low pressure deepening over the Southern Plains.
Look for increasing high clouds, but any rain chances should hold
off until daytime Sunday.  Warmer with lows in the 40s, thanks to
southerly BL flow and increasing high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM Friday...

Sunday through Monday: Similar to the day shift, have once again
slightly slowed the showers with the low pressure system moving from
the Plains Sunday morning up to Michigan Monday morning. The warm
front will move through the forecast area Sunday, spreading rain
across nearly all locations. Instability is unimpressive during this
time, and have kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast
mostly for collaborative purposes. The primary threat for strong to
severe thunderstorms will come along the cold front itself, which is
expected to come through around sunrise Monday. This appears to be a
high shear, low CAPE (HSLC) situation, especially because of the
timing in the diurnal cycle. The GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement on the timing of the cold front, with all rain being well
east of the region by Monday afternoon. Storm total precipitation
amounts have changed little, with about an inch of rain across
eastern counties to upwards of two inches in the Triad, with the
heaviest rainfall occurring Sunday night with the cold front. Highs
will be above normal through the period.

Monday night through Thursday: Models have come into slightly better
agreement for this part of the forecast, although there are still
differences that would result in significant changes to the sensible
weather. High pressure will build into the Southeast Monday night
into Tuesday behind the cold front. After that, there is general
agreement that a coastal low will develop off the Carolinas, but the
ECMWF develops the low more quickly and closer to the coastline than
the GFS. This would naturally have implications for timing of
precipitation as well as how far inland showers progress. Have gone
with chance pops Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a lingering
shower possible Wednesday night from the Triangle east. The weather
will dry out for Thursday. After warm temperatures on Sunday and
Monday, temperatures will fall below normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 654 AM Friday...

Through 12Z Saturday:  VFR flight conditions will continue through
the TAF period with high pressure building in, with clouds and cigs
aoa 8k ft agl.  The main concern today will be gusty NW sfc winds of
20-28kts that will linger through about 01Z Saturday, then look for
winds to diminish to 10kt or less as the high builds over and the BL
decouples from the sfc.

After 06Z Saturday:  Look for increasing clouds ahead of the next
cold front, but remaining VFR Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Flight conditions will deteriorate below VFR by late-day Sunday and
as the front approaches and rain chances increase.  A round of
strong storms with gusty sfc winds will be possible from late-Sunday
through early Monday, then improving conditions Monday afternoon as
the cold front departs to our east.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
458 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-110900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
458 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph combined with low relative
humidities will result in increased fire danger today. Adverse fire
behavior is possible, and outdoor burning is discouraged.

Low temperatures tonight and Saturday morning will generally fall
into the mid 30s across the Piedmont with lower temperatures possible
in the typically colder spots. These temperatures will likely result
in areas of frost.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A chance of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall is possible late
Sunday into Monday morning. Residents of central North Carolina
should monitor the progress of this weather system, and make sure to
have a method to receive severe weather alerts Sunday and especially
Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for severe thunderstorms late
Sunday and Sunday night.