High Wind Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilson County, NC

577 
WWUS72 KRAH 292049
NPWRAH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
449 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

NCZ007>011-023>028-039>043-073>077-292200-
/O.CAN.KRAH.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201029T2300Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, 
Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, 
Scotland Neck, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, 
Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton,
Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, 
Asheboro, Archdale, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, 
Wake Forest, Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Wilson, 
Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, 
Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, and Dunn
449 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish as Post Tropical Cyclone Zeta
races away from North Carolina.

$$

NCZ078-083>086-088-089-292200-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-201029T2300Z/
Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Goldsboro, Wadesboro, Polkton, 
Rockingham, Ellerbe, Laurinburg, Camp Mackall, Wagram, Raeford, 
Fayetteville, Spring Lake, Hope Mills, Clinton, and Roseboro
449 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish as Post Tropical Cyclone Zeta
races away from North Carolina.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
733 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zeta will move rapidly up the
Appalachian Mountains today and move off New Jersey by this evening.
A trailing cold front and upper level trough will sweep through the
region tonight, bringing in colder air for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

As of the 2am NHC advisory, Tropical Storm Zeta was located near
Tuscaloosa, AL and moving quickly to the northeast at 30 mph. This
storm motion is unusually fast for a storm that currently retains
its tropical characteristics, and the storm is expected to remain
tropical as it passes to the northwest of the local forecast area.
The predicted 8am location is about 50 miles west of Asheville, and
the storm will continue to track to the northeast.

There is currently a rainfall lull across much of North Carolina,
but rain will fill back in from the west and southwest through the
rest of the night and by sunrise most locations west of Raleigh
should have rain. Along with the rain will come stronger winds.
While there will be minimal atmospheric instability, and therefore
only a slight chance of thunderstorms, even minimal instability
immediately near the surface will allow stronger winds aloft to mix
down to the surface. This is the primary reason for the wind
advisory. As was mentioned earlier, the speed at which Zeta is
moving will affect the amount of time it impacts the region. The
bulk of the rainfall should actually move north into Virginia by mid
afternoon, and wind gusts will peak in the early afternoon before
diminishing in the late afternoon. A slight northwestward trend in
the track of Zeta continues to lower rainfall forecasts. Expect as
little as a quarter inch of rain in southeastern locations such as
Fayetteville, with an inch to an inch and a half around Winston-
Salem. A minimal shift in the track over the next 12 hours could
impact those forecast numbers. Considering the strong southerly
winds, temperatures will be quite warm for late October, around 80
in most locations, which should remain a few degrees below record
highs in the mid 80s at climate sites. No changes are expected to
headlines, which keeps Davidson, Forsyth, and Guilford counties in a
Tropical Storm Warning, with all remaining counties under a wind
advisory.

Once Zeta passes by, focus then turns to a large upper low currently
along the Texas-Oklahoma border. Right now there is no significant
surface reflection of the upper low, but by this evening models try
to show a developing surface low somewhere along the Appalachian
Mountains. This surface low is not as evident in today's 00Z models
as it was in previous forecast runs, so confidence has diminished in
this feature overall. A cold front with this low will move across NC
this evening into the overnight hours, but models are showing less
instability and less precipitation along the front than previous
runs. While there is certainly a threat of damaging wind from Zeta,
the front was expected to carry more of a severe weather threat, but
this threat appears to be lesser now. Still, the chance for damaging
winds or an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Winds will begin
to shift to the west and northwest behind the front, allowing lows
to drop into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

The mid-level trough and surface low will exit off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Friday morning. Models have sped up the timing of the system,
so precipitation should be out of central NC by this time. Behind
the cold front, dry NW flow will result in clearing skies through
the afternoon and evening. NW winds will still be somewhat gusty on
Friday, up to 20-25 mph, as the region will be sandwiched between
the departing low and high pressure to the west. High temperatures
will be much cooler than previous days, in the 60s for much of the
area, with lows Friday night dropping to the upper-30s NW to mid-40s
SE. A few mid-30s are even possible in the usual colder spots, and
some patchy frost Saturday morning isn't out of the question in the
far northern Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

The center of the surface high will move across the Northeast US on
Saturday, resulting in dry conditions and cool autumn-like weather
for central NC. Highs will be about 10-15 degrees below normal, in
the mid-50s to lower-60s, with slightly warmer lows Saturday night
(40s) as return flow develops with the high moving offshore. A
reinforcing cold front and associated deep mid-level trough will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night. The front continues to
look moisture-starved, with light precipitation amounts expected if
any. For now just have slight chance POPs across the region, highest
east. SW flow ahead of the front will result in slightly warmer
temperatures on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 60s.

Behind the cold front, Canadian high pressure will build across the
Southeast US early next week. This will result in dry conditions and
likely the coldest temperatures central NC has experienced so far
this season. With clearing skies, lows Sunday night will likely drop
into the 30s across a good portion of the area with more patchy
frost possible, although gusty NW winds behind the front should
limit radiational cooling somewhat. Highs on Monday will only be in
the upper-40s to lower-50s, or 15-20 degrees below normal. As the
center of the high approaches Monday night, clear skies and calm
winds should result in effective radiational cooling and make this
the coldest night of the period. Forecast lows are a bit below the
model blends and towards the colder end of the ECMWF ensemble
statistical guidance, generally lower-30s across the area with a few
upper-20s even possible in the NW. This would result in widespread
frost and possibly even a hard freeze across parts of the area.
Temperatures should rebound a bit on Tuesday and especially by
Wednesday (with highs close to normal) as the high moves to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 AM Thursday...

...Remnants of TC Zeta will bring adverse aviation conditions to all
TAF sites today...

The steadier rain has begun to move into the Triad, with the
heaviest rain and strongest winds impacting the Triad between 12 to
18z as Zeta moves through the area. As the main rain band moves
through the area, flight restrictions will lower to LIFR in the
Triad. Elsewhere, flight restrictions will lower to MVFR as the rain
band clips the area. The strong southwesterly low-level flow will
the approach of Zeta will promote both low level wind shear and also
strong surface winds between 25 and 40 knots. Zeta will quickly exit
the area during the afternoon, but a strong cold front will be
tracking through after 00Z. Some isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible as the cold front crosses the area during the evening,
mainly from KRDU eastward.

Outlook: Expect gusty NWLY winds on Friday. High pressure takes over
with VFR conditions expected through the period. Another cold front
approaches late Sunday and Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-
023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ021-022-038.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CBL/Kren

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
522 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

NCZ021-022-038-300930-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-
522 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

Additionally, periods of rain through late morning, followed by
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early
Thursday night, may produce urban and creek and stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
522 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms may become severe late this
afternoon through early tonight. Locally damaging wind gusts or even
an isolated tornado would be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-291600-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
ANSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WINSTON-SALEM, GREENSBORO, HIGH POINT,
BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, MEBANE, LEXINGTON, THOMASVILLE, ASHEBORO,
ARCHDALE, ALBEMARLE, TROY, WADESBORO, AND POLKTON
920 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...Period of Damaging Wind Gusts, Possibly in Excess of 60 MPH,
Will Spread across the Western Piedmont including the Triad
between 900 am and Noon...

A region of wind gusts frequently approaching 45 MPH, with
occasional gusts in excess of 60 MPH, will spread northeast into
the western Piedmont this morning. The strongest winds with the
greatest potential to produce damage wind will likely occur
between 10 AM and noon, but with strong winds likely to continue
into the afternoon.

These wind gusts will be strong enough to uproot or snap trees
and break tree limbs and branches. This will likely result in
power outages. In addition, unsecured lightweight objects blown
about.