Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Raleigh, NC

251 
WGUS72 KRAH 040641
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
241 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

NCC065-069-127-183-195-041015-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200804T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nash NC-Edgecombe NC-Wake NC-Wilson NC-Franklin NC-
241 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NASH...EDGECOMBE...WAKE...WILSON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 237 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash 
         flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, 
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Raleigh, Cary, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Nashville, Louisburg, Wilson,
Wake Forest, Garner and Fuquay-Varina.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

Streams and creeks are rising rapidly across parts of the area, 
particularly in Wake County. The Walnut Creek at South State Street 
in Raleigh just exceeded flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3580 7747 3557 7782 3560 7812
      3582 7826 3552 7871 3561 7899 3587 7891
      3587 7883 3597 7871 3605 7875 3602 7855
      3618 7849 3616 7842 3627 7831 3619 7792
      3614 7789 3615 7768 3601 7741 3590 7734

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

JD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Isaias will track north along the Georgia coast
late this afternoon and the South Carolina coast this evening. The
storm is expected to make landfall across the far northern South
Carolina coast before midnight and then move north-northeast across
eastern portions of North Carolina tonight through Tuesday morning.
A more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will then return for the remainder of the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Monday...

The official forecast for Tropical Storm Isaias shows the storm
moving a touch faster through North Carolina, and it now appears
that the bulk of the impacts from the storm will be felt during the
overnight hours as opposed to persisting into Tuesday morning. 25+
mph winds should first be felt right around sunset in southern
Sampson County, with winds ramping up during the rest of the evening
and into the overnight hours. The eye of the storm is expected to
pass to the east of the forecast area, so winds should remain
elevated with the storm moving through. Although Isaiah is still
forecast to briefly become a hurricane before making landfall, no
hurricane force winds are expected in the forecast area. With the
quicker storm movement, all wind speeds greater than 25 mph should
be out of the region by 8am Tuesday. The slightly faster storm speed
should also result in slightly lower rainfall forecasts as the storm
will be over the region for less time. Still think that there will
be 4-6 inch rainfall totals along the I-95 corridor, but that the
overall coverage of those highest rainfall totals will be reduced.

With all widespread rainfall out of the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon, think that a chance for scattered showers/thunderstorms
will remain across the forecast area with clearing skies behind the
storm, except sinking motion in the wake of the storm will likely
limit overall coverage. With the storm moving out of the region more
quickly, bumped up high temperatures another degree or two, into the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

A slow moving cold front will move across the western NC mountains
on Tuesday evening and then stall across central NC for much of the
short term period into Friday night. A broad upper trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes into the northern Gulf of Mexico
early in the period gradually weakens through the work week although
the trough axis lingers to our west. The result will be a period of
unsettled weather with mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms. Given the significant rain that will fall across parts of
the Carolinas tonight and early Tuesday, any significant rain from
thunderstorms on Wednesday could result in some additional or
enhanced flooding issues. Temperatures on Wednesday in the wake of
the departing TC will range near seasonable around 90 and then cool
a slight bit into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and Friday.
Morning lows will range around 70.
-Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

The cold front that stalls out over NC in the wake of TS Isaias
looks like it will washout or be fairly unidentifiable by Saturday.
With one shortwave moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday and
the central US ridge trying to build eastward, a general WNW flow
aloft should become established into early next week.  This pattern
suggests near normal temps each day, with diurnal convection
potentially augmented/enhanced by disturbances in the NW flow aloft.
Confidence in the timing of those disturbances would be fairly low,
so will keep pops near climo in the lower end chance range.
Afternoon highs 88-92.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

Aviation conditions will deteriorate from the south this evening as
widespread showers, thunderstorms, and strengthening winds
associated with the core of the tropical storm spread north across
the Sandhills, the Coastal Plain and in the eastern Piedmont. This
will result in widespread IFR to MVFR conditions in heavy tropical
downpours at KRDU, KRWI and KFAY, especially between 03Z and 09Z.
The strongest winds with gusts to around 45kts at KRWI, 35kts at
KFAY and 25kts at KRDU will occur for a 3 to 5 hour period during
this window. Further west, periods of showers and storms, heavy at
times with less extreme winds are expected at the KGSO and KINT
terminals.

As the storm rapidly moves northeast and exits NC into VA by 12Z,
conditions will improve quickly from south to north just after
daybreak Tuesday with VFR conditions and winds gusts falling below
20kts by 16Z Tuesday. A large area of BKN cumulus will develop with
bases around 4kft during the afternoon with the potential for
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Looking further ahead, a more typical summer time pattern with
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through
Friday. -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-
086-088-089.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM..Blaes
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Blaes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
902 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ011-027-028-043-078-089-050115-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson-
902 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ010-026-041-042-077-086-088-050115-
Warren-Franklin-Wake-Johnston-Harnett-Hoke-Cumberland-
902 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>085-050115-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-
902 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ007>010-032315-
Vance NC-Person NC-Warren NC-Granville NC-
610 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PERSON...
NORTHWESTERN WARREN...VANCE AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Norlina to Kittrell. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Oxford, Kittrell, Stovall, Middleburg, Gillburg, Mayo
Reservoir, Steele Creek Marina & Campground, Kerr Lake and South
Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7819 3623 7836 3623 7838 3616 7842
      3616 7846 3618 7849 3616 7851 3635 7896
      3654 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 126DEG 19KT 3652 7829 3622 7844

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
614 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ007-008-023>026-040-041-032315-
Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-Person NC-Wake NC-
Granville NC-Orange NC-
614 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ALAMANCE...PERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN GRANVILLE...NORTHWESTERN
WAKE...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM...DURHAM AND WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Franklinton to near
Cary. Movement was northwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Roxboro,
Hillsborough, Creedmoor and Carrboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7844 3571 7891 3609 7941 3624 7931
      3624 7915 3642 7914 3648 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 146DEG 22KT 3609 7855 3580 7889

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
824 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NW NEW HOPE           35.85N 78.59W
08/03/2020                   WAKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROAD AT INTERSECTION OF CALVARY
            DR. AND GREEN RD.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SSE RALEIGH           35.81N 78.65W
08/03/2020                   WAKE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN AT GLENWOOD AVE AND COWPER DR.

&&

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1108 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ026-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-040400-
Scotland NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Sampson NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-
Wake NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-Wilson NC-
1108 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...WAYNE...SAMPSON...
HARNETT...CUMBERLAND... WAKE...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON...JOHNSTON...HOKE
AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms along a line extending from near
Fayetteville to Goldsboro. Movement was northwest at 45 mph.

Heavy rain of one half to three quarters of an inch per hour will
accompany these showers and isolated storms; and minor flooding will
be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Fayetteville, Cary, Goldsboro, Smithfield, Clinton, Raeford,
Lillington, Fort Bragg and Wake Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3485 7850 3483 7890 3495 7904 3482 7936
      3506 7944 3521 7925 3517 7910 3527 7922
      3558 7892 3570 7896 3600 7845 3586 7823
      3573 7821 3577 7808 3559 7780 3518 7783
      3519 7816 3474 7820 3471 7811 3456 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 138DEG 39KT 3542 7816 3512 7862 3482 7902

26