Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Main forecast concerns/challenges are with thunderstorm trends late
this afternoon through this evening, and thunderstorm chances once
again Tuesday afternoon. A strong to severe threat remains for both
today and Tuesday.

In the near term, continue to see isolated showers and storms
develop across the higher terrain and parts of the I-25 corridor.
Thunder actually remains limited at this time, likely owing to the
lower dewpoint air and instability in this location. However, have
seen a few storms develop across far southeast El Paso and northeast
Pueblo counties. These storms have developed along several outflow
boundaries situated across the area, and have even seen some recent
stronger updrafts develop. Where they are developing is right on the
western edge of higher dewpoints and instability, and think there
will continue to be a risk for a stronger storm here in the near
term. Lacking shear in this location is evident, as updrafts really
have not been able to sustain themselves. So, think the risk of
severe weather is low at this time. However, small hail and gusty
winds of around 50 mph will be possible, given the dry low levels
with DCAPE axis in place. Heavy downpours with a localized flooding
risk is also possible.

By late this afternoon and early evening, think there will be higher
chances for storms and higher potential for a few strong to severe
storms further east into the plains. As was noted earlier, higher
dewpoint air and instability remains situated across the far eastern
plains, along and ahead of the surface trough. This looks to remain
into this evening and should see additional development along and
east of a Kim to Arlington line over the next couple of hours.
Substantially higher moisture and instability with around 30-35 kt
of shear should help support a severe threat. Wind gusts to around
60 mph will be possible, but think large hail in the one inch to two
inch range will also be a risk given the presence of higher CAPE in
the -10 to -30 C range in this location. The thunderstorm and severe
risk should end by mid to late evening.

Continue to monitor another day of showers and storms on Tuesday,
some of which could be strong to severe. Westerly flow in the place
on Tuesday, with some potential for more defined mid level energy to
traverse this flow and help bring a little higher coverage and
intensity of storms to the area. Showers and storms likely across
the higher terrain, and some potential for more organized
development across parts of the I-25 corridor and areas eastward in
the afternoon. Guidance now indicating the potential for higher
instability and shear on Tuesday, increasing the risk of strong to
severe storms. Confidence is somewhat lower on exact placement of
where the strongest storms will be, but at this time, think the I-25
corridor from Springs south to Pueblo is the more favored
location.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.Wednesday through Friday...Upper air pattern will be
characterized by a trough over California and a ridge over the
midwest. This will allow for increase in southerly flow over the
region advecting mid level moisture northward from Mexico. This
increase in mid level moisture will result in greater chances for
diurnal storms, especially over and near the mountains. On
Wednesday, an embedded trough will move northeast across the
state. The trough will increase the chances for convection along
with locally heavy downpours over the mountains. WPC has a
marginal risk for flash flooding for Wednesday over portions of
the mountains. There could be some localized flash flooding with
the heavier precipitation cores as precipitable waters are around
0.75 to 1 inch. Lighter winds aloft will result in slower moving
storms. Main concern will be flash flooding over the burn scars
which have lower criteria for flash flooding. On Thursday, some
drier air aloft will move into the region behind the trough for
modestly lower chances for convection, but winds aloft remain
light with slow moving storms. On Friday, consensus has an
increase in mid level moisture with light winds aloft for greater
chances for thunderstorms over the mountains with locally heavy
downpours.

Further east, a weak lee trough will develop over the
plains starting Wednesday, which will tend to dry the lower
levels. Convection may still move off of the mountains, but with
the inverted V sounding lighter QPF is expected with greater
potential for gusty winds from thunderstorms. Warm temperatures
will continue especially over the plains where there will be less
convection.

.Saturday through Monday...The models hint at a weak tropical
system moving westward across Texas and into northern Mexico and
maybe southern New Mexico. This is the same system currently
south of Florida. If this forecast path continues, there could be
an increase the amount of moisture over the region during the
weekend. Once again, it looks as if the greatest increase in
moisture will be over the mountains. By Monday, the operational
models and ensembles suggest the upper ridge will start moving
westward with the flow aloft becoming more westerly aloft. This
could result in a modest decrease the amount over mid level
moisture in the area. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Showers and storms remain the main risk across the sites this
evening, with ALS and PUB having the highest chances of observing
thunder. Still think it is possible across COS, however, think the
majority of any additional development will remain to the southeast.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should end by early this evening.
VFR and dry conditions tonight, but with shower and thunderstorm
chances returning to all of the terminals Tuesday afternoon. Higher
coverage of storms is appearing possible, with confidence for the
possibility of storms increasing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1202 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-211815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1202 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over southern
Colorado this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms
will be possible, mainly east of the I-25 corridor this afternoon
through early evening. Highest chances for severe storms look to
be for areas closer to the Colorado and Kansas border. However,
can't rule out an isolated stronger storm along the I-25 corridor
this afternoon. Primary hazards today will be winds to 60 mph and
quarter size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the best
coverage of storms over the higher terrain. There is the potential
for a few strong to marginally severe storms across the Pikes
Peak region and portions of the southeast plains, north of Highway
50. Severe storm risks would be gusty winds to around 60 mph and
hail up to an inch in diameter, with locally heavy rain and frequent
cloud to ground lightning likely with all storms on Tuesday. Weak
steering flow aloft across the area will produce slow moving storms,
which could also lead to the potential for flash flooding, especially
for storms developing or moving across area burn scars.

For Wednesday through Sunday, there will be daily chances of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms across all of south central and southeast
Colorado. The best coverage of storms will be over and near the higher
terrain through the afternoon hours, with some storms spreading east
across the far southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening.
With generally weak steering flow aloft, storms will be slow moving
and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. This will also lead
to the potential for flash flooding, especially for area burn scars.
Other storm risks will be frequent cloud to ground lightning, with
small hail and gusty outflow winds to around 45 mph possible with
the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible over the far eastern plains late this afternoon and early
evening.

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ088-093-094-099-210000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
520 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHWESTERN
BACA AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 520 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Thatcher, or 41 miles east of Trinidad, moving
south at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kim, Delhi and Thatcher.

LAT...LON 3728 10389 3766 10409 3779 10382 3700 10300
      3700 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 349DEG 14KT 3739 10380

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
606 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

COZ094-210030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
606 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 606 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Kim, or 39 miles south of North La Junta, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

LAT...LON 3727 10366 3755 10352 3743 10313 3714 10321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 293DEG 19KT 3741 10349

28

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