Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Scattered showers/tstms will continue into the evening hours across
much of southern CO.  The best chances for severe storms should
mainly be east of a line from Colo Spgs, to La Junta to Springfield.
There is also the possibility of some stronger storms developing/moving
over the more vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins
and Spring), which could lead to a flash flood/debris flow risk.
The HRRR has been consistent in showing the chance for heavy rain
over mainly eastern portions of Kiowa County later this evening.
Some of this area has heavy rain last night, and if heavy rain
occurs again, flash flooding could occur. Most of the showers/storms
should be done by 06Z, but some of the models are showing the
possibility of some light lingering activity into the late night
hours.

On Sat, showers/storms will probably start developing over the mtns
in the late morning hours, and become widespread over the mtns and
adjacent locations in the early to mid afternoon, and maybe across
southern areas, like Baca and Las Animas Counties.  Toward evening,
storms may start spreading eastward over the plains.  With the upper
ridge being overhead, storms should generally be slow moving.  If
slow moving storms move over vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden
Pass, Junkins, Spring), there may be a flash flood/debris flow risk.
It is also possible that one or two storms could become severe Sat
afternoon and/or evening across portions of the southeast plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Saturday night-Sunday night...Models continue to indicate a weak
wave, embedded within the weak westerly flow aloft, will translate
across eastern Colorado through Saturday night. This wave looks to
keep showers and storms, ongoing over and near the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon, which will push east out across the far
southeast plains and into western Kansas through early Sunday
morning. For Sunday, latest models are indicating the potential for
an mcv from overnight convection to develop near se Colorado and sw
Kansas border, which could be a focus for convection late Sunday
morning and afternoon. Otherwise, there will be enough residual
moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms once
again, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. With
ample moisture in place, with PWATs progged to between 0.75 to 1.25
inches across the area, and weak westerly steering flow, the main
storm threats will continue to be heavy rainfall and the potential
for localized flash flooding, though can't rule out small hail and
gusty outflow winds with the stronger storms. Temperatures around
the area look to be around seasonal averages.

Monday-Tuesday...Flow aloft progged to become more westerly and
slowly drys out as eastern Pacific energy translates across the
northern Tier of States. There looks to be enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered showers and storms over and near
the higher terrain. Storm, however, will become higher based as
available moisture thins out across the Rockies. Temperatures to
warm back to slightly above seasonal levels through early next
week.

Wednesday-Friday...Latest models continue to trend to much drier air
working into the region within continued generally weak westerly
flow aloft. At this time, afternoon storms look to be fairly
isolated, high based and mainly tied to the higher terrain.
Temperatures look to warm to well above seasonal levels, with highs
in 90s to lower 100's across the plains, and in the 70s and 80s
across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Showers/tstms could move into the vicinity of KCOS, KPUB and KALS
through the evening, and if this happens and they are strong enough,
there could be a brief period of MVFR conditions. Showers/tstms
could also produce erratic and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-041715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1110 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across much of southern Colorado. The main risks with storms will
be lightning, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and some of the
stronger storms may produce small hail. There will be the
possibility of a few severe storms over portions of the southeast
plains today, mainly along and east of a line from Colorado
Springs to La Junta, to Springfield. The main severe storm risks
will be wind gusts around 60 mph, and hail up to the size of ping
pong balls. Also, if a strong storm moves over an area burn scar,
there could be a flash flooding risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase in frequency and
areal coverage for Saturday and Sunday, before tapering off once
again for Monday through Thursday. The main storm risks each day
will be cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts up to 40 mph. The
increased storm activity for Saturday and Sunday, will also
present the potential concern of flash flooding on area burn
scars.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across southeast Colorado this afternoon and evening.

28/28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             HASTY                   38.11N 102.96W
07/03/2020  M1.00 INCH       BENT               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

COZ095-040000-
Western Kiowa County CO-
508 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haswell, or 36 miles northwest of Lamar, moving north at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Haswell.

LAT...LON 3829 10302 3836 10323 3853 10323 3853 10317
      3861 10317 3861 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 192DEG 20KT 3844 10312

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

COZ095>098-040000-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
509 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...CENTRAL
KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 509 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wiley, or 10 miles northwest of Lamar, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eads, Wiley, Neeoshe Reservoir, Sweetwater Reservoir, Chivington,
Neegronda Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10263 3815 10286 3857 10280 3851 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 192DEG 20KT 3821 10273

kam

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