Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

Another relatively quiet morning with mostly clear skies in place,
outside of some passing high clouds across far southeast Colorado.
These clear/sunny conditions this morning will assist with a steady
rise in temps, with the warming trend continuing today. No real big
changes made to the forecast highs for today, with the pattern and
air mass still looking to support 70s and 80s in the mountain
valleys and 80 and 90 degree weather across the plains.

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms still expected this
afternoon into early evening. Despite upper level ridging noted
across the region, southern CO should see some weak perturbations
pass overhead today, supporting this limited development. This weak
support along with some increase in moisture, will allow for
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Main focus still looks to be for the mountains,
especially the southern mountains, and mountain valleys and have
continued to focus highest pops across this area. Did include some
thunderstorm mention across Teller and west/northwest El Paso
counties late this afternoon into early evening, as I could see a
stray shower or storm move off the mountains.

Overall, the severe risk is low for today, but can't rule out some
gusty winds and small hail. Similar to yesterday, surface troughing
expected across northeast NM and far southern CO this afternoon, and
could act to provide a little more focus and moisture pooling for
another area of thunderstorm development today. Do think if any
strong storm were to develop across the area today, it would be in
this area along and south of around the Raton Mesa east to
Springfield. Hail approaching an inch and wind gusts up to 50 to 55
mph would be the main hazards. The flash flood threat for the burn
scars looks to be low today, given where storms are expected to
develop. If any of the burn scars were to have some risk, it would
be the Spring burn scar. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
diminish in the evening, with dry conditions then expected
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

...Critical Fire Weather conditions Saturday and Sunday...

Next unseasonably strong system across the western U.S. will lift
through the northern Great Basin and across the northern U.S.
Rockies this weekend.  This puts southern CO under increasing
southwest flow aloft which sets up the region for another windy
pattern. Initially this flow pattern will pick up some Pacific
moisture and spread it into the mountains on Saturday with fairly
widespread precipitation advertised for late Saturday into Saturday
night as a PV lobe and assoc upper jet lifts through western CO.
Moisture quality improves according to layer specific humidity
fields on Saturday, so some thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall which will require burn scar flash
flood monitoring. Moisture quality decreases across eastern portions
of the region where models place an axis of drier air across the
eastern plains in the afternoon. Gusty winds and lower dew points
will lead to critical fire weather parameters across the
plains...with greatest confidence of occurrence east of the I-25
corridor counties. Winds will be strongest across the southeast
corner of the state...but latest runs suggest as high based showers
and thunderstorms come off the mountains, gusty winds could even
effect the I-25 corridor for a couple hours in the evening due to
gusty outflows.  Have added Otero county to the Fire Weather Watch
for Saturday as soundings off deterministic models suggest there
should be at least a 3 hour window of gusty winds there.  A little
more uncertainty exists for the I-25 corridor so will leave these
areas out for now and let later shifts get a look at high res runs
before hoisting the final Red Flag products this afternoon.

A drier air mass works in for Sunday as the moisture plume gets
shunted southward as a result of leading wave ejecting across the
northern U.S. Rockies. Still looking at the potential for some
isolated high based thunderstorms across southern sections of the
area...but moisture quality looks poor with thunderstorms being high
based gusty outflow wind makers.  With stronger winds and hot
conditions over the area Sunday...this looks like the more
widespread critical fire weather day across south central and
southeast Colorado.  Expect Fire Weather highlights will needed for
most of the plains and valleys, though any rainfall on Saturday
could mitigate risks a bit across western areas.

Persistent southwest flow aloft will keep warm and mainly dry
conditions across the area through early next week.  Some isolated
high based thunderstorms will be possible each day...mainly across
the mountain areas.  Breezy afternoon winds will lead to near
critical fire weather conditions in and near the mountains each day
as well, but as the gradient looks weaker aloft, suspect winds will
be more on the marginal side for Monday before potentially
increasing again for Tuesday as lee side surface trough deepens and
transitions eastward.  May be looking at another round of fire
weather highlights for Tuesday.

Eventually extended models bring another front into southeast CO mid
to late week bringing another potential uptick in thunderstorms to
the southeast mountains and plains for Thursday and Friday.  This
should tamp down fire weather concerns for eastern areas, but
western mountains may see little relief with critical fire weather
conditions continuing. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at COS, PUB and
ALS. Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected over and
near the higher terrain, especially the southern mountains, with
the best chances of storms at the terminals being at ALS. Mainly
diurnally driven wind regimes expected at the terminals, with
gusty outflow winds the main threat with storms near the
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ232>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-131715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1115 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon
and evening, especially across the southern mountains and mountain
valleys. Additional thunderstorm development may be possible along
the Raton Mesa, eastward to Springfield and southeastern Baca
County. The main thunderstorm hazards will be lightning and gusty
outflow winds, with small hail possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the mountains on
Saturday. These will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, small hail, and localized wind gusts up to
40 mph. A few storms may move off into the adjacent plains, but
these will be more likely to produce gusty winds up to 50 mph, and
lightning but only spotty light rainfall amounts. Meanwhile,
critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the
southeast plains east of I-25 due to a combination of gusty winds,
low relative humidity, and dry fuels.

Critical fire weather conditions will be more widespread on
Sunday as drier air spreads in. Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains
but these will be high based producing gusty winds and lightning
but only spotty light rainfall amounts.

Drier weather spreads in for early next week with the potential
for critical to near critical fire weather conditions each day in
and near the mountains as breezy afternoon winds kick in. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late week
across the southeast mountains and plains behind another cold
front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across the southern mountains and
near the Colorado and New Mexico state line.

23/23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
201 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

COZ088-122030-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
201 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Aguilar, or 9 miles north of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3718 10456 3729 10471 3755 10445 3739 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 221DEG 34KT 3730 10457

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