Snow Squall Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
436 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

An upper level disturbance will be moving across the area today and
will bring windy conditions to much of the area.  Northwest winds of
20-35 mph with higher gusts are expected, especially this afternoon
and early this evening.  The upper disturbance is expected to bring
more accumulating snow to the central mtns today, and the HRRR shows
precip across the far southeast plains this afternoon.  There could
also be some isolated showers over other mtn areas, and maybe some
adjacent lower elevations today, but nothing significant is
expected. Because of expected snow today in the central mtns and the
potential for the strong winds to cause blowing snow that may reduce
visibilities, will issue a winter weather advisory for Lake County
and the high elevations of western Chaffee County today and into the
evening.

There will continue to be some snow over the central mtns tonight,
and maybe portions of the southwest, mainly the La Garita mtns.  The
rest of the area should be dry tonight.  The winds will decrease
tonight but will still be a bit breezy in many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

One more day of cold, unsettled and breezy to windy conditions
are anticipated Tuesday in advance of moderating/warming
temperatures in combination with generally drier conditions
developing over the CWA from Wednesday into Saturday.

For sensible weather, next quick moving upper disturbance in
combination with a strong northerly component surface surge will
allow for the coldest temperatures of the longer term to be noted
from Tuesday into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. In addition,
northerly component surface winds approaching 40 mph at times on
Tuesday are also anticipated.

Projected maximum temperatures are expected to only climb into
the 30s over eastern locations Tuesday, with expected minimum
temperatures projected to drop into the single digits by early
Wednesday morning, which will allow apparent temperatures/wind
chill readings to drop into the negative single digits(possibly
colder) by early Wednesday morning. WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.

Then, outside of the Central Mountains, where light snow showers
will be possible at times, latest longer term computer simulations,
PV analysis, forecast model soundings, etc., indicate that a
drier northwesterly upper flow pattern from Wednesday into Friday
morning will transition to a transitory upper ridge pattern from
later Friday into Saturday over the CWA, allowing for dry
conditions during this time-frame in combination with above
seasonal temperatures developing from Friday into Saturday.

Finally, increasing chances of precipitation should be realized
over primarily Continental Divide locations as Sunday progresses
as next storm system begins to impact southern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 437 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.  Strong northwest winds will develop later this morning or in
the early afternoon and will continue until early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ058>060.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
554 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-251300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
554 AM MST Mon Feb 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Snow and blowing snow can be expected over Lake County and the
higher elevations of Chaffee County, creating poor visibilities at
times. Strong northwest winds are expected today across most of
southeast and south central Colorado, with wind gusts of 35 to 40
mph being common, but gusts in some areas could occasionally be
even higher.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Light snow, below seasonal temperatures and gusty winds will be
possible over the Central Mountains and many eastern locations
Tuesday, with cold temperatures continuing into Wednesday
morning, allowing wind chill values to drop to below zero over
many locations by Wednesday morning.

A return to drier and warmer conditions is then projected to
develop over the majority of southern Colorado from later
Wednesday into Saturday in advance of next system impacting
primarily Continental Divide locations Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely in Lake County and the high elevations of western Chaffee
County.