Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Pueblo, CO

151 
WWUS55 KPUB 222243
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COC071-222315-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200622T2315Z/
Las Animas CO-
443 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 442 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 17 miles southeast of Thatcher to 25 miles south of
Higbee to near Kim, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kim and open county of eastern Las Animas county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 10392 3754 10378 3739 10314 3700 10346
      3700 10350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 283DEG 27KT 3742 10376 3740 10347 3722 10325 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KT

267 
WWUS55 KPUB 222251
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COC071-222315-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200622T2315Z/
Las Animas CO-
451 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 450 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 20 miles southeast of Thatcher to 26 miles south of
Higbee to 9 miles east of Kim, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 10377 3751 10364 3739 10314 3712 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 290DEG 24KT 3740 10370 3738 10341 3720 10320 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KT

249 
WWUS55 KPUB 222258
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
458 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COC071-222308-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200622T2315Z/
Las Animas CO-
458 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3731 10377 3751 10364 3739 10314 3712 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 290DEG 24KT 3738 10365 3736 10336 3718 10315 

$$

KT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Rest of today and tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms
are expected to continue this evening into the overnight hours.
There remains the potential for a few of the storms to become strong
to severe into the evening across the plains. The primary threats
with these storms will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts
up to 60 mph, and lightning. This severe threat is expected to
diminish after sunset. The showers and storms will mainly propagate
to the southeast and exit into Kansas and Oklahoma by early morning.
Mild temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the 50s to near
60 across the plains and the 40s to around 50 in the high valleys.

Tomorrow...The overall pattern is not expected to change too much
for Tuesday. Another embedded disturbance within the northwest flow
aloft will bring another round of showers and storms to the region,
with precipitation initiating over the mountains a little before
midday before spreading east to the plains. East to southeast low
level winds are expected to keep higher moisture levels across the
plains, which will likely result in more widespread storm coverage
than today. In addition, much of the plains will see CAPE values in
the 1000-1500 J/kg range in the afternoon with bulk shear values of
30-40 kts, resulting in the potential for some storms to become
strong to severe once again. Lightning, wind gusts to 60 mph, and
hail up to 1 inch in diameter will be the primary threats with the
stronger storms. Elsewhere, west of the Sangre de Cristos, forecast
soundings are showing quite large dew point depressions in the low
levels, which will likely result in most of the precipitation
evaporating before hitting the ground. Therefore, there is potential
for dry lightning strikes in these areas, increasing the chance for
fire starts. Given the isolated nature of the dry lightning strikes,
will not issue any fire weather highlights at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be similar to Monday, generally in the
80s across the lower elevations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.Wednesday and Thursday...Flow aloft becomes more westerly. With
a weak lee trough starting to develop on Wednesday, the amount of
moisture over the plains and eastern mountains decrease; however,
the amount of drying is less than previous runs. As a result,
there will better chances for diurnal convection on Wednesday
especially over the eastern mountains and plains. Over the
Continental Divide region, there will be less moisture. Any storms
will tend to be very high based with little rainfall and gusty
winds. By Thursday, the amount of moisture decreases over most of
the plains and eastern mountains. A weak trough may help increase
the coverage of convection, but with less moisture they will
overall produce less rainfall. Models hint at a dry line near the
Kansas border where a few stronger storms are possible. Will also
have to watch for an increase in dry thunder over the Continental
Divide region associated with the trough.

.Friday and Saturday...There is the potential for these days to
be wetter with an increased threat for strong to severe storms.
The models and ensembles generally agree that a trough will pass
over the area sometime Friday into Saturday. In addition, a cold
front will move over the plains and eastern mountains with moist
usplope flow developing. As usual the devil is always in the
details. The GFS and associated ensemble members suggest the
stronger convection will favor locations north of our CWA while
the EC and Canadian are more bullish with convection over
southeast Colorado. The GFS, Canadian and some ensembles suggest
the trough will tend to linger over western Colorado on Friday,
and these models/ensembles are advertising the idea of the trough
moving east across the area on Saturday. This slower speed could
allow for another chance of strong to severe storms with much
needed rainfall on Saturday as well. The EC and EC ensemble mean
do not show the trough passage on Saturday. For now, really cannot
touch the grids much and just advertise increasing threat for
strong storms with some much needed rainfall possible. Over the
Continental Divide region, operational EC and GFS show fairly high
humidity values at 700mb with a decreased threat for dry thunder.

.Sunday and Monday...The general idea of the model/ensemble solutions
is to have a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and across
the northern Rockies. Dry and warm southwest flow aloft will
develop over the region with mostly hot and dry weather. Dry line
appears to move into Kansas with any stronger storms staying east
of the region.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

At KALS, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A high
based storm remains possible into this evening, which would have the
potential to produce gusty winds in excess of 40 mph if one does
develop. There is potential for more high based thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon.

At KCOS and KPUB, generally VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours. A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
continue into this evening, with the best chance for thunderstorms
at the terminals through about 01z. Low level easterly winds tonight
will likely cause a stratus deck with CIGs around 6 kft into Tuesday
morning before clearing after sunrise. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to potentially affect both terminals
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...CARLBERG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-231745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across the eastern
plains this afternoon and evening. Hail to one inch in diameter
and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible with stronger storms. These
storms will track eastward this evening, moving into Kansas
overnight. More isolated thunderstorms are expected over the
Continental Divide, into the San Luis Valley. Lack of
precipitation with these storms along with lightning and gusty
outflow winds may lead to fire starts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are again expected over the
southeast mountains and eastern plains on Tuesday, and a few
storms could become strong to severe over the plains in the
afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds near 60 mph and hail up
to half dollar size will be possible, and locally heavy rainfall
may occur on area burn scars leading to a flash flood risk. Lack
of rainfall with thunderstorms along and near the Continental
Divide may again lead to fire starts, especially across the
eastern San Juan and La Garita Mountains.

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are then expected
from Wednesday into Saturday, mainly over the mountains,
spreading east into the plains during the evening hours and
dissipating overnight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely across the eastern plains this afternoon and evening.

29/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
225 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ084-085-222100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
225 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...

At 224 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rush, or 39 miles southwest of Limon, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truckton, Yoder and Rush.

LAT...LON 3863 10405 3860 10431 3885 10429 3889 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 322DEG 16KT 3879 10408

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ084-222115-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
245 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 245 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ramah, or 30 miles southwest of Limon, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Ramah.

LAT...LON 3897 10406 3894 10405 3892 10406 3896 10431
      3913 10427 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 275DEG 22KT 3904 10418

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
316 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ086-088-093-094-222145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
316 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...

At 315 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 17 miles northwest of Tyrone, or 35 miles north of
Trinidad, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone and mainly rural areas of northwestern Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 10454 3785 10432 3775 10394 3739 10425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 294DEG 15KT 3767 10436

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
340 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ088-093-094-222215-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
340 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 340 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Thatcher, or 33 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone, Delhi and Thatcher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3753 10435 3774 10421 3765 10372 3726 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 300DEG 18KT 3759 10420

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ088-094-222245-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
411 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 411 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thatcher, or 35 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thatcher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 10420 3763 10406 3760 10342 3711 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 288DEG 27KT 3748 10400

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

COZ094-222300-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
414 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Kim, or 34 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10346 3714 10374 3756 10345 3740 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 210DEG 6KT 3720 10353

KT