Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Pueblo, CO

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WWUS55 KPUB 292041
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COC061-292100-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-200729T2100Z/
Kiowa CO-
241 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY...

At 240 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chivington, or
22 miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan Lake, Chivington and Brandon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 10247 3852 10269 3861 10258 3862 10246
      3852 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 313DEG 14KT 3852 10253 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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513 
WWUS55 KPUB 292048
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
248 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COC061-292100-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-200729T2100Z/
Kiowa CO-
248 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY...

At 248 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chivington, or
24 miles south of Cheyenne Wells, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan Lake, Chivington and Brandon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 10268 3859 10257 3862 10246 3852 10221
      3828 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 319DEG 13KT 3850 10251 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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103 
WWUS55 KPUB 292101
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COC061-292111-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-200729T2100Z/
Kiowa CO-
301 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However hail up 
to the size of nickels, and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3851 10268 3859 10257 3862 10246 3852 10221
      3828 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 313DEG 14KT 3847 10248 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Currently...high pressure is sitting over Arizona this morning while
energy embedded in northwesterly flow moves across Colorado.  Radar
indicates a few light rain showers exiting Baca County early this
morning as the main energy exits the region.  Satellite imagery
indicates clearing conditions from west to east.  Temperatures are
currently in the 60s across the Plains with light winds.

Today...high pressure will begin to amplify over Arizona with
ridging extending north into Utah. Meanwhile, an upper wave over
Wyoming will shift east into Nebraska and northwestern Kansas by
this afternoon. This will force northwesterly flow across the
region by this afternoon. Drier air over Utah is forecast to shift
eastward as well. This will help scour out moisture on the
Plains, with dewpoints falling from the 60s into the 40s along the
I-25 corridor. There is a marginal threat for severe storms out
near the Kansas border this afternoon, but much will depend on how
quickly the drier air mixes eastward. The latest model guidance
has CAPE vales around 2000 j/kg by 18z, but quickly dries out and
stabilizes the Plains, pushing this higher instability east into
Kansas. This will likely limit the severe threat this afternoon.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, initiating
over the Mountains, and spreading south and east across the
Plains. Given the drier air and lack of instability, coverage
looks to be minimal. If one of these storms moves over the Decker
or Spring burn scars, it could lead to flash flooding, but the
overall threat appears low at this time. Out near the Kansas
border, if a stronger cell can get going, wind gusts to near 50
mph and hail nearing an inch in diameter are possible.

Tonight...the upper high will continue to amplify over the Arizona
to Utah while the upper disturbance shifts into eastern Kansas.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to dissipate this evening as
the upper energy moves away from the area.  At the surface, a cold
front will drop south by midnight.  This will turn flow
northeasterly across the Plains, pushing moisture back into the
Plains by morning.

As for temperatures, they will be a bit warmer today.  Locations on
the Plains will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s.  Overnight lows will
continue to be mild with upper 50s to mid 60s for the lower
elevations. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Long range flow pattern will be characterized by persistent north
to northwest flow with another moistening trend into next weekend
as periodic reinforcing upslope flow behind frontal surges pushes
through the plains. First of these occurs on Thursday as upper
trough across the central plains with an east to west extension
across eastern CO slowly drops southeastward through the day.
Timing of moisture return across the plains behind the front will
determine storm strengths, but with northwest flow aloft, this day
may have the better potential for severe thunderstorms given
greater deep layer shear and potential for stronger CAPE. Far
eastern plains will be most at risk. Better moisture advection
occurs Thursday night driven by continued upslope flow possibly
enhanced by westward moving outflow boundaries from convection
across western KS. This sets the stage for increased risk for
flash flooding concerns on burn scars for Friday as better
moisture and upslope flow will be in place across the eastern
mountains and I-25 corridor. Storm motions will be south
southeasterly which should keep greatest thunderstorm potential in
and near the mountains. As mid level flow shifts around from a
southerly direction Friday night, there is the potential for some
warm air advection showers and thunderstorms to continue into the
overnight hours across the southern plains...though operational
GFS and NAM suggest focus may stay to the south of our area. Will
maintain some isolated pops along the southern border through
Friday night.

Another cold front will surge southward into the southeast plains on
Saturday with moisture advecting back westward into the mountains
through the weekend. With the upper ridge axis parked to the west
this will keep north to northwest flow across CO with the
atmosphere gradually moistening through the period as moisture
gets reinforced under the ridge across the southeast mountains and
plains. Eastern mountain sections of the forecast area will
maintain the best chances for showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend, but even the valleys and southwest mountains will
gradually moisten given southerly mid level flow, so potential
for wetting rains across western sections of the area will
increase as well. Flash flooding will be possible on area burn
scars through the weekend into Monday as weak perturbations rotate
over the northern and eastern periphery of the upper high and
upslope/surface heating also help to trigger afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the mountains each day.

Extended models show a drying trend for Tuesday and next Wednesday
as the western U.S. upper high gets suppressed southward and ridge
axis translates eastward.  This puts southern CO under a more
westerly flow aloft...though flow is still rather weak.  Stuck close
to model blends for pops during this period with another warming
trend.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KALS, KPUB and
KCOS. Gusty west to northwest or north winds are expected into
tonight at KPUB and KCOS. Chances for showers/storms looks too low
to include in the forecast for KPUB and KCOS this afternoon and
evening. High resolution models show better chances for showers or
storms at KALS this afternoon, so for now will include a VCSH
group in the forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-301730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. A couple of storms may become strong to severe out near
the Kansas border. These storms may produce hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms will produce potentially deadly lightning, and could
produce wind gusts to near 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday
with a strong storm or two possible across the southeast plains.
Hail to near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to around 50 mph
will be possible, especially near the Kansas border.

The risk for heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms increases for
Friday through Monday across the mountains. Localized flash
flooding on burn scars will be possible if a stronger storm
directly impacts these areas. Small hail, gusty winds up to 45
mph, and lightning will also be possible with the stronger storms
in and near the mountains.

Thunderstorm chances should decrease some for Tuesday and
Wednesday as drier air works into the region, though both days
will have the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms in and
near the mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening near the Kansas border.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
123 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

COZ099-291945-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
123 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 123 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Campo, or 17 miles southeast of Springfield,
moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Baca
County.

LAT...LON 3706 10252 3723 10260 3733 10232 3711 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 251DEG 18KT 3718 10248

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