High Wind Watch 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

495 
WWUS75 KPUB 071610
NPWPUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

COZ085-080015-
/O.UPG.KPUB.HW.A.0003.200908T0300Z-200908T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.HW.W.0007.200908T0300Z-200908T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0002.200909T0300Z-200909T1800Z/
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT
TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, north winds 30 to 40 mph 
  with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Freeze Warning, sub-
  freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.

* WHERE...Southern El Paso county including Colorado springs.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 7 
  AM MDT Tuesday. For the Freeze Warning, from 9 PM Tuesday to 
  noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially
  for high profile vehicles traveling on east west oriented roads.
  Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive 
  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

COZ084-080015-
/O.NEW.KPUB.HW.W.0007.200908T0300Z-200908T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0002.200908T1800Z-200909T1800Z/
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT
TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, north winds 30 to 40 mph 
  with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Freeze Warning, sub-
  freezing temperatures as low as 23 expected.

* WHERE...Northern El Paso County including Monument.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 7 
  AM MDT Tuesday. For the Freeze Warning, from noon Tuesday to 
  noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages will be possible. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles traveling on east west
  oriented roads. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, 
  other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected 
  outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

COZ086-089-093-080015-
/O.UPG.KPUB.HW.A.0003.200908T0300Z-200908T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.HW.W.0007.200908T0300Z-200908T1300Z/
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Crowley County-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pueblo, Crowley and Otero counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 AM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages will be possible along with areas of blowing dust.
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles
  traveling on east west oriented roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

COZ069>071-087-088-094-080015-
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0002.200909T0300Z-200909T1800Z/
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Eastern Las Animas County-
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 24 expected.

* WHERE...The San Luis Valley, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Currently...A ridge of high pressure remains in place over the
region, which has allowed temperatures to break records at Alamosa,
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, where highs so far have been 88F, 97F
and 103F as of 2:30 PM, respectively. Elsewhere, temperatures are as
hot as expected, with 2:30 PM readings in the upper 90s to lower
100s across the plains and mid 80s to around 90 in the high
valleys. Skies are generally clear except for a few clouds over the
southern mountains at this hour. Generally north to northwest winds
have moved into the plains, which has ushered in some haze from
wildfire smoke to the area.

Tonight...A back door cold front is expected to move into the region
from Kansas, bringing an increase to low level moisture and should
help to reduce some of the haze across the region. Forecast
soundings show that this low-level moisture is expected to be very
shallow, so not expecting any low clouds to move into the area. Lows
are expected to be near 40F in the San Luis Valley, which is near
average, and the upper 40s to around 60F across the remaining lower
elevations, which is slightly above average.

Tomorrow...The cold front that moves through overnight is expected
to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler across the plains and the
I-25 corridor, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile,
the cold front is not expected to affect areas west of the eastern
mountains, so highs will likely be similar to today in the mid to
upper 80s for the high valleys. Alamosa could see another record
high broken tomorrow.

The well-advertised trough and associated cold front that will bring
a big change to the weather begin to approach the region from the
north, which is expected to tighten pressure gradients over the
northern portions of the forecast area. As a result, gusty winds and
a drop in relative humidity values are expected over the central
mountains, La Garitas, northern portions of Sangre de Cristo and Wet
Mountains, northern half of the San Luis Valley, and the Wet
Mountain Valley. Therefore, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to
a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow afternoon. It should be noted that
although the southern portions of the San Luis Valley, Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountains, and the eastern San Juan Mountains are
included in the zones for the Red Flag Warning, these areas are not
expected to reach critical thresholds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...Potential High Impact Winter Storm still on track for Tues/Wed
but still some uncomfortable uncertainties with the storm
track...

Models have trended farther west and stronger with the upper low
as it drops southward through UT Monday night and closes off near
the 4 corners region Tuesday evening. EC is slower and farther
west than 12z operational GFS...though the GFS Ensemble Mean
seems to split the difference. System continues to drop southward
Tuesday night before becoming negatively tilted and lifting slowly
northeastward across CO Wed night and Thursday with the operational
GFS the farthest east in its northeast track across central
CO...while EC is farther west across western CO/eastern UT and the
Ensemble mean is somewhere in between. Confidence in the storm
track is still low but trends suggest a farther westward track
which would shift focus for snowfall west as well. Of course if
EC is correct then impacts along the I-25 corridor and southeast
plains could be less with best forcing staying a tad too far west.
Have gone with a GFS/GFS Ensemble blend for now with WPC QPF
grids looking good.

As for the sensible weather...still looking at a potent cold front
dropping south of the Palmer Divide around midnight and through
all of the southeast plains by 3 AM. North winds will gust to 50
mph or greater with 18z hrrr and 12z NamNest suggesting gusts to
60 mph will be possible across El Paso, Pueblo, Crowley
county...and Otero counties between midnight and 6 AM Tues. Will
have to watch this potential as it is certainly conceivable given
the tight pressure gradient and some acceleration southward off
the Palmer Divide that a high wind warning may be needed for
these areas. Snow fills in behind from north to south with the
heaviest hit of snow falling on Tuesday/Tuesday night as strong
isentropic upglide sets up across a large portion of our area
around the closed low. Snow and a lower elevation rain/snow mix
will spill over into the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains
during the afternoon as the upper low sinks southward.
Temperatures will fall through the day, especially across the
southeast plains where a rain/snow mix will be possible during the
late afternoon with a shift over to snow possible Tuesday night.
Residual warmth in the ground will likely play a huge roll with
snow accumulations across the lower elevations though where the
heavy snowfall rates occur, there could be a period of impactful
accumulations over the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa region as well
as the mountains and valleys to the west. Across the southeast
plains as well as southern El Paso and Pueblo counties think the
ground warmth will mitigate this somewhat...but its conceivable
some advisories will be needed, especially to account for possible
higher accums on the western sides of Pueblo and El Paso counties.
Some impacts to be concerned about include, tree damage and power
outages in and near the mountains with heavy wet snow and strong
winds. Roads in and near the high country could become slick and
snowpacked, especially Tuesday night. And of course the cold
temperatures and snow will likely lead to a premature end to the
growing season across the plains for warm season crops. Both Tues
night and Wednesday night look to drop below freezing across the
plains.

Given the slower ejection of the upper low Wednesday and Wednesday
night it will continue unsettled with another possible round of
precipitation Wednesday evening with either wrap around in the
west or a WAA band in the east...again...highly dependent on the
storm track. Have kept at least scattered pops in during this
period and have extended the Watch through Wednesday morning.

System slowly pulls off to the northeast for Friday with the
weekend drying out and warming back up. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

There is a chance that smoke in the air will cause lower
visibilities at the terminal forecast sites beginning in the mid
to late morning hours on Mon, with MVFR visibilities being
possible. However, at this time there is too much uncertainty to
include in the forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
the next 24 hrs. KALS will likely see breezy southwest winds
develop Mon afternoon, as could KCOS. At this time, it looks like
a cold front will move into the KCOS area around 05z Tue, bringing
strong north winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-
222>225.

Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday
morning for COZ058>082-084-087-088-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-080600-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1151 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the mountains
and mountain valleys on Monday afternoon, due to low relative
humidity values, gusty winds, and dry fuels.

A cold front will reach southern Colorado by early Tuesday
morning. After the front passes over, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
will be possible during the morning. Winds will weaken during the
afternoon but will still be gusting to 30 to 40 mph.

Snow is expected on Tuesday, but how much will accumulate is
still uncertain, and is dependent on the track of the storm
system which the forecast models do not completely agree upon.

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s over the plains and the teens to lower 20s over the
mountain valleys, which would cause a hard freeze. A hard freeze
this early in the season would create widespread crop damage and
possibly damage undrained sprinkler systems.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed tonight.

28/28