Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

097 
WGUS65 KPUB 260425
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1025 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening over
and near the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars...

.With increased moisture over the area on Sunday, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely over and near the mountains, mainly
in the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms will be slow
moving and have the potential to produce heavy rain. If heavy
rain moves over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn
scars, flash flooding could occur.

COZ072>075-077-079-080-087-261230-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.200726T1800Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
1025 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Flash Flood Watch for Fremont County, Huerfano County, the 
  Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and the Wet Mountains, which 
  includes the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars.
 
* From Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding over the burns scars will be possible. The ground
  in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and mudslides
  could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

014 
WGUS65 KPUB 261036
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
436 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening over 
and near the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars as
well as the Chalk Cliffs...

.With increased moisture over the area today, showers and 
thunderstorms will be likely over and near the mountains, mainly 
in the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms will be slow 
moving and have the potential to produce heavy rain. If heavy rain
moves over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn scars,
or the Chalk Cliffs, flash flooding could occur.

COZ061-062-261845-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FF.A.0003.200726T1800Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
and Buena Vista
436 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of Chaffee county, the
  Eastern Sawatch Range and Upper Arkansas River Valley, which
  includes the Chalk Cliffs and parts of the Decker burn scars.

* From noon MDT today through this evening

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding over the burns scars will be possible. The 
  ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and 
  mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ072>075-077-079-080-087-261845-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.200726T1800Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
436 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Flash Flood Watch for Fremont County, Huerfano County, the 
  Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and the Wet Mountains, which 
  includes the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars.

* From noon MDT today through this evening

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding over the burns scars will be possible. The 
  ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and 
  mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

972 
WGUS65 KPUB 261453
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
853 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening over
and near the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars
as well as the Chalk Cliffs...

.With increased moisture over the area today, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely over and near the mountains, mainly
in the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms will be slow
moving and have the potential to produce heavy rain. If heavy
rain moves over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn
scars, or the Chalk Cliffs, flash flooding could occur.

COZ061-062-072>075-077-079-080-087-262300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.200726T1800Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, 
Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, 
Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
853 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* The Chalk Cliffs and for the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and
  Spring burn scars. 

* From noon MDT today through this evening

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding over the burns scars will be possible. The 
  ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and 
  mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

483 
WGUS65 KPUB 261855
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1255 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening over
and near the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars
as well as the Chalk Cliffs...

.With increased moisture over the area today, Thunderstorms will 
be likely over and near the mountains this afternoon and evening.
The atmosphere over the region is quite unstable, and quite a few
of the storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain in a 
short period of time. If any of these heavy rain producing storms 
move over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn scars, 
or the Chalk Cliffs, then flash flooding will likely occur. Due to
the heavy rain rates, the flash flooding could happen in a very 
short period of time. Flash flooding may also occur in the 
remainder of the watch area, but the greatest risk of flash 
flooding will be over the burn scars.

COZ061-062-072>075-077-079-080-087-270300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, 
Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, 
Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
1255 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including 
  the following areas, in central Colorado, Eastern Sawatch 
  Range, Fremont County, and Upper Arkansas River Valley. In 
  southeast Colorado, Huerfano County, Northern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Wet 
  Mountains. 

* Until midnight MDT tonight

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding will be possible, especially over the burn scars. 
  The ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and 
  mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

Hodanish

360 
WGUS65 KPUB 262111
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible through the rest of this afternoon
and evening over and near the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and 
Spring burn scars as well as the Chalk Cliffs...

.With increased moisture over the area today, Thunderstorms will
be likely over and near the mountains this afternoon and evening.
The atmosphere over the region is quite unstable, and quite a few
of the storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain in a
short period of time. If any of these heavy rain producing storms
move over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn scars,
or the Chalk Cliffs, then flash flooding will likely occur. Due
to the heavy rain rates, the flash flooding could happen in a
very short period of time. Flash flooding may also occur in the
remainder of the watch area, but the greatest risk of flash
flooding will be over the burn scars.

COZ061-062-072>075-077-079-080-087-270515-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, 
Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, 
Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
311 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including 
  the following areas, in central Colorado, Eastern Sawatch 
  Range, Fremont County, and Upper Arkansas River Valley. In 
  southeast Colorado, Huerfano County, Northern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Wet 
  Mountains. 

* Until midnight MDT tonight

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding will be possible, especially over the burn 
  scars. The ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris 
  flows and mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

Hodanish

460 
WGUS65 KPUB 270350
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
950 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible through the rest of this evening
and again Monday afternoon and evening over and near the Decker, 
Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars as well as the Chalk 
Cliffs...

.With monsoonal moisture in place over the area through the start
of the work week, thunderstorms will be likely over and near the 
mountains through this evening, and again on Monday afternoon and
evening. The atmosphere over the region will remain unstable, and
quite a few of the storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rain in a short period of time. If any of these heavy rain producing
storms move over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or Spring burn 
scars, or the Chalk Cliffs, or any area that has received heavy 
rain over the past few days, flash flooding could occur. 

COZ061-062-072>075-077-079-080-087-271200-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FF.A.0004.200727T1800Z-200728T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-200727T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, 
Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, 
Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
950 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including 
  the following areas, in central Colorado, Eastern Sawatch 
  Range, Fremont County, and Upper Arkansas River Valley. In 
  southeast Colorado, Huerfano County, Northern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Wet 
  Mountains. 

* Until midnight MDT tonight.
  

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.

* Flash flooding will be possible, especially over the burn 
  scars. The ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris 
  flows and mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Colorado and 
  southeast Colorado, including the following areas, in central 
  Colorado, Eastern Sawatch Range, Fremont County, and Upper 
  Arkansas River Valley. In southeast Colorado, Huerfano County, 
  Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, and Wet Mountains. 

* From Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible,
  along with saturated soils from previous days rainfall. 

* Flash flooding will be possible, especially over the burn 
  scars. The ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris 
  flows and mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

699 
WGUS65 KPUB 270551
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...Heavy rain will be possible through the rest of this evening
and again Monday afternoon and evening over and near the Decker,
Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars as well as the Chalk
Cliffs...

.With monsoonal moisture in place over the area through the start
of the work week, thunderstorms will be likely over and near the
mountains through this evening, and again on Monday afternoon and
evening. The atmosphere over the region will remain unstable, and
quite a few of the storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rain in a short period of time. If any of these heavy rain
producing storms move over the Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins or
Spring burn scars, or the Chalk Cliffs, or any area that has
received heavy rain over the past few days, flash flooding could
occur.

COZ061-062-072>075-077-079-080-087-271400-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-200727T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0004.200727T1800Z-200728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Alpine, Granite, St Elmo, Salida, 
Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, 
Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, 
Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Rye, and Walsenburg
1151 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including 
  the following areas, in central Colorado, Eastern Sawatch 
  Range, Fremont County, and Upper Arkansas River Valley. In 
  southeast Colorado, Huerfano County, Northern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Wet 
  Mountains. 

* From Monday afternoon through Monday evening

* Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms will be possible.  
 
* Flash flooding will be possible over the burn scars and areas
  that have seen saturated soils due to previous heavy rains. The
  ground in burn scar areas is unstable, so debris flows and
  mudslides could occur in and around the burn scar.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Colorado and
southeast Colorado will expire at midnight MDT tonight. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Main forecast concerns/challenges continue to be with shower and
thunderstorm chances today through this evening across much of the
area, especially along and west of I-25.

No real big change in the overall pattern this morning with south
southwest flow remaining in place, and with a steady stream of
moisture continuing to lift north across the region. At the surface,
surface trough situated across eastern CO, with high dew point air
in the 50s to low 60s in place. With these conditions in place,
another relatively mild morning is expected, with temps then
expected to rise to the 80s and 90s across the plains. Below normal
temps expected over the mountain valleys, as thick cloud cover and
periodic showers and storms will help limit daytime warming.

Scattered showery development is occurring across the higher terrain
this morning and expect this to continue, but do think energy and
moisture helping to drive current showers and storms to the south
will help bring an increase in coverage later this morning. By late
morning/midday, will see daily increase in coverage and intensity of
this precip, with thunder becoming more likely. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms then possible across plains later this
afternoon, especially along the I-25 corridor. Pattern similar to
what was in place Friday is expected this afternoon, and think
slightly higher focus will again be possible closer to the Palmer
Divide. In this location, a slightly stronger storm will be
possible. Tall and skinny CAPE is once again likely though, helping
to limit the intensity of any storm today. Main hazards today will
be lightning and occasional gusty winds, but do think there will be
another risk for localized flash flooding. This will primarily be
across the burn scars though, with all area burn scars at risk as
early as midday. While the risk of flash flooding is expected today,
have not issued a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Confidence is not
that high yet, and also think Sunday and Monday could pose higher
risks not only for the burn scars but for other portions of southern
CO.

By this evening, surface trough/boundary drop south across the area
and think there could be some gusty northerly winds behind it,
especially across the eastern plains. Thunderstorm chances will be
on the decrease in the evening, however, do think showers will
linger slightly longer into tonight. This trough/boundary will mark
the beginning of additional increases in moisture, with high dew
point air and high PWATs appearing likely late this weekend into
early next week across much of southern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Sunday and Monday...Both days look to be the most active of the
extended period, as the plume of monsoon moisture persists over
New Mexico and Colorado. This moisture tap will fuel convection by
midmorning over the higher terrain, with gradual storm movement
to the northeast across the high valleys and I-25 corridor. At the
same time, a cold front will be pushing into the eastern plains.
Models suggest that the front will drop south of the Palmer Divide
by noon, but then stall somewhat in the vicinity of Highway 50.
This front will eventually push all the way south in the evening,
but as this boundary wavers through the aftn it will serve as the
focal area for storm development. So while storms will initially
fire over the mts, convection is expected to linger well into the
night across the eastern plains. Moving forward to Monday, after
the front has pushed south into New Mexico, easterly surface winds
will allow 60F dewpoints to push west up to the I-25 corridor,
and another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is
forecast. Healthy QPF amounts both days suggest the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times, and if slow-moving
storms develop and track across area burn scars, flash flooding is
a significant concern. Look for max temps in the 70s both days
for the high valleys. Across the plains, temps will climb into the
80s to near 90F on Sunday, then the 70s to around 80F for Monday.

Tuesday...The upper ridge quickly moves west across the state while
a disturbance crosses the Great Basin. There will be plenty of
residual llvl moisture to once again fuel thunderstorm activity
during the aftn and eve. However, surface winds are forecast to be
more southerly so storms will likely be more tied to the higher
terrain, temps will be slightly warmer, and convection should die
off fairly quickly after sunset. Maximum temps will warm into the
70s for the high valleys, and 80s for the plains.

Wednesday through Friday...The ridge restrengthens west of Colorado,
with the ridge axis expected to be in the vicinity of Nevada and
Utah. This positioning will produce drier and warmer conditions for
the forecast area through the end of the work week. Expect isolated
to scattered convection across the region each aftn and eve, with
the best chances tied to the higher terrain. High temps will climb
into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to
mid 90s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

At KALS, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the
terminal through around 12z. The best chance for a shower or storm
to occur at the terminal is between about 21z and 02z, with gusty
south to southwest winds during that time as well. Outside of the
potential for lowered VIS with showers at the terminal, VFR
conditions are anticipated for the next 24 hours.

At KCOS, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
nearby mountains early this afternoon and progress eastward. Nearby
showers and storms are anticipated into tonight, with the best
chance for a shower or storm to occur at the terminal being between
about 21z and 01z. Winds are expected to shift to the north this
evening and continuing through the rest of the period. Outside of
the potential for lowered VIS with showers at the terminal, VFR
conditions are anticipated for the next 24 hours.

At KPUB, nearby scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and last into tonight. Although chances are
limited, an isolated shower or thunderstorm at the terminal cannot
be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening. Gusty southwest
winds are anticipated this afternoon before shifting to northerly
winds. Winds gradually diminish overnight and become light and
variable. VFR conditions are anticipated for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CARLBERG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-261745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1136 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains
and mountain valleys this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain
will be possible, and any heavy rain that falls over a recent burn
scar will have the potential to cause flash flooding.

A stronger storm or two is possible near the Palmer Divide late this
afternoon through early evening, with the main hazards expected to
be gusty winds and heavy downpours. A few storms will also be
possible across the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be daily chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
across all of south central and southeast Colorado.

Thunderstorms will initially develop by midmorning Sunday over
the higher terrain, then activity will spread east across the
plains as a cold front pushes south. Storm activity is expected to
linger well into the night, then reignite on Monday across the
mountains as well as the eastern plains.

The best coverage of storms will be over and near the higher
terrain through the afternoon hours Tuesday through Friday, with a
few of the storms spreading east across the far southeast plains
through the late afternoon and evening.

Slow-moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall Sunday through Tuesday, increasing the potential
for flash flooding, especially across area burn scars. Other storm
risks will be frequent cloud to ground lightning, with small hail
and gusty outflow winds to around 45 mph possible with the
strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains and near the
Palmer Divide.

29/27