Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

121 
WGUS65 KPUB 192104
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...Conditions are no longer favorable to produce flash flooding.
Therefore the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled...

COZ072-073-077>080-083-086-192215-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200620T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, 
Silver Cliff, Westcliffe, Rye, Canon City, Penrose, and Pueblo
304 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Colorado and
southeast Colorado has been cancelled. With the wave of
precipitation already have passed through the watch area, the
atmosphere is no longer conducive to flash flooding.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

An upper level trof will be moving across CO today and into this
evening, bringing high chances for precip to much of the area.  The
NAM Nest shows a line of stronger storms developing around midday
over the Continental Divide and then working its way eastward
through the afternoon and reaching the I-25 corridor in the late
afternoon and continuing across the southeast plains in the evening.
SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather across the southeast
plains for today which looks good.  The best chances for any severe
storms should be from the late afternoon through the evening hours
as the storms ahead of the trof axis work their way east across the
plains. Precip chances tonight are expected to decrease from west to
east across the area.  The NAM is a little faster moving the precip
out of the area than the GFS, but by about 09-12Z most, if not all
precip should be out of the area.  Temps today will be below
average, with the plains mostly seeing upper 60s to lower 70s for
highs, with upper 60s to mid 70s in the San Luis Valley, 60s in the
Upper Arkansas River Valley and mid 50s to lower 60s in Teller
County. Low humidities and breezy conditions are expected to result
in spotty critical fire weather conditions over southern portions of
the San Luis Valley this afternoon, but it looks too spotty and not
really for a long enough period to warrant a fire weather highlight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Sat upper level ridging is expected over the state and dry and
warmer weather is expected.  Highs should be back in the 80s over
the plains, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the high valleys. On
Sunday a weak disturbance is forecast to move through mainly eastern
portions of the area with northerly winds expected over the plains.
This system could bring some isolated showers/storms to the mtns and
plains, but at this time the forecast models are mainly dry.  Temps
will be even warmer on Sun.

Mon another upper disturbance brushes by the area to the east and
sends a front into eastern CO, with easterly surface winds expected
in the afternoon.  Showers/storms are expected to develop along and
near the eastern and central mtns in the afternoon and spreading to
the eastern plains in the evening.  Some spotty areas of critical
fire weather conditions will be possible Mon afternoon in the high
valleys.

Tue and Wed an upper ridge center is expected to be to our south and
southwest with CO being in northwest flow.  It looks like there will
be enough moisture over the area these days for scattered
showers/storms, especially over the central and eastern mtns and
southeast plains.  With another disturbance expected to affect the
area on Thu we should continue to have scattered chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

At KCOS, forecast soundings are showing lower clouds with MVFR CIGS
developing later this morning and remaining in the area until the
evening.  Showers/tstms are expected in the area mainly from about
midafternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings show low
stratus developing again later this evening and then possibly
remaining in the area until near sunrise.

At KPUB, forecast soundings show the potential for MVFR conditions
this morning and into the afternoon.  The best chances for
showers/storms is expected to be from mid afternoon into the early
evening.  There is a chance for some low stratus overnight, but it
is too uncertain at this time to include in the forecast.

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions.  This afternoon and early
in the evening there could be some showers/storms in the vicinity,
with strong wind gusts being a risk.  Otherwise gusty southwest to
west winds are expected this afternoon and into the early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
439 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-201045-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
439 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across much of the area today, mainly in
the afternoon and evening, but some may continue into the late night
hours over the far southeast plains.  There could be a few severe
storms from mid to late afternoon through the evening across the
southeast plains.  The main severe risks will be wind gusts around
60 mph and hail up to half dollar size.  Other storm risks include
cloud to ground lightning and gusty outflow winds, and some of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail.

If storms with heavy rain move over area burn scars today, there
will be the potential for flash flooding, mainly over the Decker,
Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Monday,
with scattered storms Tuesday through Thursday. The main risks
with storms will be cloud to ground lightning, and gusty outflow
winds up to 50 mph. Some of the stronger storms will be capable
of producing small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening over the central and eastern
mountains and the southeast plains.

28/28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
430 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     HEAVY RAIN       11 E DELHI              37.64N 103.83W
06/19/2020  M0.54 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR TOTAL.

0427 AM     HEAVY RAIN       9 SE THATCHER           37.46N 104.00W
06/19/2020  M0.96 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR TOTAL.

0427 AM     HEAVY RAIN       15 SE DELHI             37.49N 103.83W
06/19/2020  M0.78 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR TOTAL.

0426 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE HOEHNE            37.26N 104.34W
06/19/2020  M2.36 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   ASOS

            24 HR TOTAL AT PERRY STOKES AIRPORT.

0426 AM     HEAVY RAIN       15 E MODEL              37.35N 103.96W
06/19/2020  M2.53 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
828 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N TRINIDAD            37.18N 104.51W
06/19/2020  E3.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. ALSO
            REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN TRINIDAD THAT
            OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

&&