Wind Advisory 14, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
252 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.
Little change in weather expected today with strong zonal flow
aloft contributing to focusing convection in the eastern highlands
which is where all thunderstorms are in grids today. Will again
have an increase in winds this afternoon and have issued a Lake
Wind Advisory for the American Falls Reservoir from noon to 8 pm
with sustained southwest winds in excess of 20 mph expected.
Expect slightly cooler conditions today but highs will still be
well above normal. Friday flow shifts more southwesterly aloft as
Pacific trof moves on shore. It will be the hottest day in the
next week plus as highs will reach near 90 in the Snake River
Plain. Will have isolated mountain thunderstorms Friday then
expect precipitation to become much more widespread with likely
precipitation everywhere along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will begin to cool off in the precipitation Saturday
with highs near normal before the extreme drop Sunday.
GK

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. The models continue to
show a cold upper low migrating east through SRN Idaho Sunday with
widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers. Record low highs
are a potential for some areas as daytime temps struggle to climb
above the mid-40s in many areas. The low ejects NE into Canada
Monday with lingering showers across the CNTRL and ERN mountains
throughout the day followed by clearing conditions Monday night as a
transient ridge of high pressure builds across Washington and
Oregon. Tuesday morning is expected to be the coldest of the week
with potential frost issues within the Snake River Plain and perhaps
evens a record low or two. Temperatures should rebound back toward
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday as the next upstream Pacific
low takes shape off the NW coast. We may see some periodic shower
activity as disturbances eject from the low but for the most part
warmer and drier conditions will be the general rule. Huston
&&

.AVIATION...A mostly dry west flow and breezy conditions are
anticipated across SE Idaho today. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across the ERN mountains this afternoon and early evening
possibly impacting DIJ. The remaining terminals should remain
largely VFR under SCT-BKN mid- and upper-level cloud cover. Huston
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry and breezy west flow aloft is expected
today with the pattern beginning to buckle Friday as an unseasonably
strong low pressure system approaches the NW coast. As the low
advances inland Saturday and Sunday, widespread showers and
afternoon thunderstorms will overspread the region with much colder
temperatures resulting in snow for the CNTRL and NRN mountains. The
low ejects NE of the region Monday with gradually drier conditions
filtering in from the west Monday night. After a cold start Tuesday
morning, we should see progressively drier and warmer conditions
build across the region Wednesday and Thursday as yet another
Pacific storm system sets up off the NW coast. Huston
&&

.HYDROLOGY...High flows continue on the Teton River through the
whole stretch from St Anthony to the Wyoming border. The FLOOD
ADVISORY for Teton River and its tributaries around Driggs remains
in place and will likely be there until this weekend. At that
time, the combination of warm weather BEFORE the weekend and
potential rain on snow is pushing the Teton River AND the Henry's
Fork at Rexburg into flood stage. It looks like the Big Wood at
Hailey COULD go back into action/above bankfull stage then as
well. It will come down to how much rainfall we get (especially on
top of the snowpack) before temperatures really cool off with the
upcoming pattern change. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ054.

&&