Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
218 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level shortwave moving through the region continues to
serve as the catalyst, along with afternoon heating, for a round of
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Hazy
conditions from wildfires across the western U.S. did inhibit
surface heating a bit this morning but afternoon visible satellite
imagery is starting to shows some breaks and this is where we may
see sufficient destabilization for tstms later today. SPC maintains
a marginal risk for severe weather today with the primary threat
being gusty winds. Given the dry conditions over the last few weeks,
lightning strikes will be a huge concern for potential wildfire
ignition as well thusly red flag warnings remain in place across all
of eastern Idaho. Convective activity should begin to diminish as
the evening progresses with another round of showers and
thunderstorms possible again Wednesday. Coverage likely will not be
as great however. Higher elevation PoPs linger into Thursday as
well.

Moisture begins to decrease a bit Friday and into the weekend with
PoPs generally isolated in nature and focused across the eastern
Highlands but in all likelihood most of eastern Idaho will remain
dry. Temperatures today and through the first half of the weekend
will run at or just above climatological norms.

Things change as we move into Sunday and early next week as a autumn-
like cold front looks to push through the region on Sunday. A
significant cooldown is expected behind this front with highs Monday
and Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lower
elevations with overnight lows dipping into the 40s, 30s across the
higher elevations. McKaughan

&&

.AVIATION...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
tomorrow. At the moment, we will carry VCTS or VCSH to account for
this, with short term updates to include showers or thunderstorms
onsite if necessary. Gust winds over 35kts along with a brief
downpour are possible. Hail is less likely, but certainly not out
of the question. Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers and storms continue early this afternoon across
central and eastern Idaho. We are still facing a struggle due to
smoke and/or cloud cover to force scattered coverage. The storm
responsible is still moving through and there is some clearing out
there, so we aren't going to drop the RED FLAG WARNING. Gusty
winds over 40mph are possible along with brief heavy rain.
Stronger storms could produce gusts near 60mph and/or hail.
Heading into Wednesday, more showers and storms are expected, with
similar risks. Coverage looks to be a little lower vs today (IF
we realize full potential), so at the moment no RED FLAG WARNINGS
are anticipated. We might get close for the central mountains and
the northern end of 410, but certainly nothing with great
confidence at the moment. Thunderstorm coverage thins out even
more Friday with isolated storms mainly over higher elevations.
Attention then turns toward the weekend, when we are still looking
at a major pattern shift for a bit. A large low drops out of
Canada, dragging a cold front through Sunday along with
temperatures dropping to 5-15 degrees BELOW AVERAGE behind it.
Stronger winds are likely Saturday with MAYBE potential Red Flag
conditions in some areas. We will be watching that as things get
closer. Keyes

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...
Air quality remains variable this week as southwest flow aloft
maintains smoke trajectory from CA, NV and OR. Thunderstorm
activity today through Thursday could provide some cleansing/wash
out of the atmosphere, but those effects would likely be localized,
and could fill back in depending on overnight inversion set up.
There is no expectation of widespread wholesale improvement until
upper trough dives into the region over the weekend, turning upper
flow northwest.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-
422-425-427-475-476.

&&

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