Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front will work into the area tonight.
Strong thunderstorms are possible just ahead of the front for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with gusty winds
as the primary threat. Much of the activity will diminish after
sunset. Residual moisture lingers across the region Friday into
Saturday with high country thunderstorms possible during the
afternoon each day. Drier weather arrives for Sunday. But another
push of moisture arrives early next week bringing more
thunderstorms to the region.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Vicinity thunderstorms are in all TAF locations into
the evening although the better chances are around BYI and SUN,
closer to the front. Expect thunderstorms to diminish overnight.
Ceilings are likely to remain vfr except under thunderstorms.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Still looks like a good chance of Scattered to
Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Central mountains
through this evening impacting mostly 475 and northern portions of
476 and 422. This is due to increased monsoon moisture as well as
instability from an approaching boundary/front. Since 422 looks to
be impacted mainly to the north of Sun Valley in elevations above
6000 ft, have held off on a Red Flag. Expect isolated thunderstorm
coverage in most of zone 422 below 6000 ft. Thunderstorms outside
the Central mountains are difficult to pin down due to model
inconsistency. There is some model consensus of a line of
thunderstorms developing outside of the Central mountains from Malad
to Mackay. This would support some scattered convection. However,
not all models show this line. Also, there is potential for more
rain in storms than yesterday. So showers and thunderstorms should
be more wet in nature than dry as precipitable water values have
risen. Storms today in the Central mountains and lower elevations
across our western areas (mainly 425) do have potential be gusty, up
to around 40 to 55 mph as well as produce hail. The clearer skies
today across our southwest areas will help support convective
activity as well this afternoon into early evening. Models continue
show less convective activity Friday. However, they do show isolated
coverage mainly in our Southwest, generally south of Burley/
Pocatello and the Island Park area. Saturday there again will be a
slight chance, though a lesser chance than Friday, of thunderstorms
over mainly our eastern mountain areas. Late Saturday into Sunday
expect overall drier conditions with a westerly breezy flow. Storm
chances pick back next week by Monday afternoon as the flow returns
to southwest versus west, and we pick up some more monsoon moisture
within the pattern. Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
413 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

IDZ054-055-057-058-232315-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Marsh and Arbon Highlands ID-
Raft River Region ID-Lower Snake River Plain ID-
413 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR CAUSING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
American Falls, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
American Falls, Neeley, American Falls Reservoir, Aberdeen, Pocatello
Airport and Sterling.

Boaters can expect a sudden increase in waves and very choppy waters
which will result in hazardous boating conditions. Boaters are urged
to seek safe harbor if possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near American Falls Reservoir, move to safe shelter now! Do
not be caught on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are
likely.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 11285 4275 11297 4308 11277 4305 11263
      4296 11250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 209DEG 15KT 4277 11285

TAX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
430 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

IDZ072-232315-
Sawtooth/Stanley Basin ID-
430 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR STANLEY...

At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Stanley, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley and Redfish Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4441 11500 4424 11470 4402 11503 4403 11505
      4406 11505 4408 11502 4409 11500 4410 11500
      4410 11502 4412 11505 4415 11502 4416 11503
      4416 11506 4418 11508 4417 11511 4420 11516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 209DEG 14KT 4408 11508

TAX

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