Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
222 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. A weak upper level
wave is currently moving through our southeast areas bringing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Expect drier
conditions by early this evening as weak high pressure starts
building in from the west. Expect dry conditions and temperatures
around normal on Friday. Saturday will start out dry with slightly
above normal temperatures and breezy afternoon winds before
showers and thunderstorms are expected by early Saturday evening.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. Expect an overall wet
and cold period, especially early on. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to start early Saturday evening ahead of an
unseasonable upper level low dropping down into the area Monday
into Tuesday. There continues to be some discrepancy on how far
this low drops into the area. The GFS model now brings the center
of the low over slightly more west and lower centering it the Sun
Valley area later Monday, which will bring significant rain to
our whole area. The ECMWF model has sped up bringing the center of
the low over our northern areas by late Monday. The ECMWF, though
wetter than previous runs does not bring near as much moisture
into our area as the GFS model. In either event, temperatures look
to drop around 15 to 25 degrees below normal by Monday before
warming up to around 4 to 8 degrees below normal by Wednesday and,
more so, on Thursday with a breezy/dry zonal flow.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...HRRR has been waffling about TSRA threat this afternoon,
so have kept VCTS in, as 12Z guidance still had TS threat for this
afternoon, although it was better for the morning hours this
morning. Not much in the way of CIG development with high pressure
dominating the pattern, and wind should stay light to moderate with
some afternoon breeziness. Skies will be on a clearing trend for
Friday, when TSRA threat goes to near zero and it should be CIG and
VSBY unlimited.
Messick

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower activity today has already had some
thunderstorms, but the main band creating the convection is exiting
the area. The clearing is coming at maximum heating, so expect a
resurgence of showers and thunderstorms for areas from Pocatello
northward and eastward. High pressure returns for Fri and Sat,
allowing some warming and drying prior to the arrival of a
significant low pressure that will cool temperatures some 20 deg F
and bring showers and thunderstorms back. This appears to be a slow
moving low that will dominate next weeks weather through at least
Wed. This low will also bring moderate to strong wind as early as
Sat afternoon, so dry and windy conditions can be expected for Sat
afternoon through Sun night prior to the arrival of rainfall and
higher humidity.
Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&