Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
144 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.
Approaching surface cold front along with weak upper level wave
this evening will likely keep isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms in southeast Idaho through midnight and then taper
off. Expect much cooler temperatures after some locations having
record or near record high temperatures today, on Sunday.
Generally about a 15 degree cool off is expected Sunday. Expect
now showers or thunderstorms with dry conditions everywhere.
Temperatures will warm again on Monday ahead of the next system
with isolated convection returning to the northern areas in the
central mountains and the Island Park area Monday and Monday
night. Expect some breezy conditions ahead of and behind the cold
front tonight and Sunday but should be below advisory levels.
GK

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. On Tuesday, we see a cut-off
low pressure system off the coast of southern California with
primarily zonal flow over Idaho. A series of weak disturbances from
a low to our north look to dominate any showers or thunderstorm that
may develop Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, the cut-off
low tries to go inland, bringing its moisture with it and increasing
our chances for thunderstorms through Saturday as it continues to
track very slowly to the east and then northeast. Models pull it
through Idaho Friday and Saturday; which would greatly saturate the
area, cool down temperatures and bring the threat for strong winds.

ND

&&

.AVIATION...
Two main hazards today will be hazards associated with thunderstorms
this evening and very strong wind shear developing this evening.
Particularly strong shear at IDA and PIH of 40 to 50 knots at 2000
ft expected between 01 and 06 UTC. For some, a prolonged period of
shear will be noted or two distinct periods of shear will be felt.
This will be the result of a developing low level jet initially,
followed by a passing cold front overnight. Look for improving
conditions tomorrow morning.

ND

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
249 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

IDZ061-063-302130-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Caribou Range ID-
249 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 248 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montpelier, Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Dingle, Border Summit, Geneva,
Geneva Summit and Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Bear Lake, Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught
on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11111 4200 11137 4247 11129 4243 11105
      4214 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 192DEG 26KT 4204 11123

DMH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
401 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

IDZ061-302300-
Bear Lake Valley ID-
401 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAR LAKE, SOUTH CENTRAL BEAR
LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bear Lake Idaho Portion.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion and Fish Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Bear Lake, Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught
on or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 11136 4217 11123 4200 11123 4200 11143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 240DEG 49KT 4209 11125

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
437 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

IDZ055-056-302315-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
437 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CASSIA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 436 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of thunderstorms 13
miles southwest of Oakley Reservoir, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oakley Reservoir, Oakley, Bostetter Ranger Station and western City
Of Rocks.

LAT...LON 4199 11422 4207 11428 4210 11428 4233 11392
      4210 11372 4199 11403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 236DEG 16KT 4206 11416

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
459 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

IDZ059-060-302345-
Franklin/Eastern Oneida Region ID-Bear River Range ID-
459 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 458 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, or 10 miles east of Preston, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Preston, Franklin, Dayton, Weston, Clifton, Whitney, Minnetonka Cave,
Riverdale and Mapleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11150 4200 11202 4221 11201 4222 11150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 238DEG 49KT 4204 11169

ND

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